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Champion Hurdle – Timeforms view

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  • #773
    Galejade
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    • Total Posts 185

    It  seems odd to me that Timeform continue to rate the leading hurdlers so low – 16lbs behind Istabraq and unusually some 5lbs behind official ratings in the case of Brave Inca whereas normally Timeform would be 3 to 7 lbs above the OR’s. This makes them the worse crop for over 20 years.

    They have allocated Hardy Eustace ( after the AIG) at 166+ which is 1lb more than the best of his champion hurdle wins and have retained Brave Inca on 165 although suggesting he ran to 163 on Sunday.

    Detroit City they have on 161+ some 8 lbs behind Rooster Booster at his best.  

    This is in contrast to the Gold Cup horses who they have well up to "normal standard" so it cannot be said that their methods have changed or anything like that.

    Personally I would have rated Detroit City at least with a P rather than just a + because of the style of running which hints to me at an awful lot more to come if necessary. I have said before that he reminds me of the great Persian War who was also the winner of the Triumph Hurdle ( and in spectacular fashion but nowhere near so spectacular as DC) and went on to win the Champion Hurdle the next year and 2 more thereafter and he had a rating of 179 at this stage.

    Although the odds may be too cramped to back him for the Champion  it would be great for Breeders if we could have a modern hurdlers hitting the 180+ TF rather than the suggestion that they are failing in their job.

    #37242
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Without going into thorough ratings analysis, I would agree that the very contrasting characteristics of the top hurdlers has made this the most fascinating division in racing for some time. But with a fair number quite closely matched, there has to be the doubt whetehr the overall quality is as high as the entertainment factor

    Have felt that there has been room for one truely fine individual to take this division by teh scruff of its neck and I wouldnt be at all suprised if it is the grey horse

    #37243
    SirHarryLewis
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1208

    I see your point Clivex but in fairness, come champion hurdle day the big three in Ireland have coprehensively put the lesser horses to the sword.  I know very little rating horses but its what they do to the mass population that counts in my opinion and right from the start of there novice careers, Brave inca and Hardy eustace have been tops.  If you contrast this Clivex with some of Istabraqa victims….lets say theatre world, we get a different story.  I think if your theory is correct then Detroit City and Afsoun will come though now but I suspect its not and once again the top horses will hand out a sound beating.

    SHL

    #37244
    clivex
    Member
    • Total Posts 3420

    Yes. The yardstick with the ordinary contempories is the most important factor, but this must be tricky to assess with few of the top runners ever appearing in handicaps and so many top races being slowish small fields

    If DC is to get a "sound beating" then clearly the best hurdler in Ireland today is going to have to improve quite a bit again…

    #37245
    Lincoln Duncan
    Member
    • Total Posts 157

    Handicappers don’t rate horses to satisfy breeders. If the objective is to breed a Champion hurdler, then if that objective is attained, does it matter whether the horse is rated 149 or 176?

    Perhaps Detroit City isn’t as good as Persian War at this stage. Of course . . . he never will be anyway.

    #37246
    nore
    Member
    • Total Posts 151

    I doubt there are many breeders who set out to breed a Champion Hurdle winner. Indeed I doubt there are many breeders who worry much about breeding racehorses at all. On the other hand, I dont doubt there are many breeders who are looking to produce horses who ‘sell well’.<br>

    (Edited by nore at 3:38 pm on Jan. 29, 2007)

    #37247
    Galejade
    Member
    • Total Posts 185

    Nore,

    If your mare does not produce winners her offspring do not sell well – so breeders care passionately  about breeding winners, particularly black type winners so that the next foal sells really really well.

    The point of my post was that Timeform think this present crop of hurdlers are very very average historically so we would soon expect a star to arise  and DC could well be it IMO

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