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Spot on CAS considering mares in recent years have a good record in this.
The more I know the less I understand.
Is there a question of adjusting the mares allowance , say if you’ve won so many grade 1s you only get 3/4 lbs , I don’t believe it made a difference today however
“Is there a question of adjusting the mares allowance ,”
Why? 50% of foals born are fillies. If the programme works as it should to keep good mares in training, then the best mares should beat the best geldings 50% of the time which is pretty much what is happening now.
I think the fact TNL and Lossiemouth travelled comfortably backed up the slower pace
Overall time was 4.24s slow, once the confirmed pace dug his heels in nobody really wanted to do the donkey work – Kennedy said she would prefer slower ground at that trip but he could have gone faster when he took it up but Cheltenham doesn’t really suit her like Leopardstown does.
Lossiemouth even though she is ideally suited to 2m4f she does have an instant change of gear which meant she wasn’t as unsuited by today’s slower gallop than TNL and Brighterdaysahead were – surprised neither owners chucked in a pacemaker to ensure it was truly run to be fair.
Aintree Hurdle might be an interesting race as potentially all three could turn up.
The mares allowance is only an issue when you get a real good mare (horses like Lossiemouth, Honeysuckle, Annie Power etc) taking on the boys to where it becomes a big advantage to have. Maybe for G1 races it could be tweaked to just 3lbs? But then again in doing so would that discourage trainers with a top mare from taking on the boys
As others have said, the mares’ races are the issue. Maybe they should be capped at a rating of 150, or similar.
“The mares allowance is only an issue when you get a real good mare”
Why is that an issue? The best mare should beat the best gelding 50% of the time. That is what is happening in the champion hurdle- they have won 5 of the last 10 runnings.
They don’t win the Stayers, because that is for slow 2 mile hurdlers and failed 3 mile chasers and if that is the case with a mare she gets shuffled off to the paddocks.
They don’t win the open chases as often because it’s more dangerous than hurdling and also because geldings are, on average, taller than mares and that gives them a bigger advantage over bigger obstacles.
“As others have said, the mares’ races are the issue. Maybe they should be capped at a rating of 150, or similar.”
Might be a good idea. Having said that, it probably benefited Lossie and Honeysuckle running there develop their talents steadily. Of course, the geldings don’t have that luxury.
If you have a mare of equivalent ability or even better than its male rival and the mare automatically is in receipt of 7lbs, then that surely is the issue about having a blanket allowance regardless of ability?
It is why we are getting more top mares going against the males in the top races (even when they have a great race programme for their own sex) and why Champion Hurdles are beiing won by mares more often – there is a strong argument that the likes of Lossiemouth, Honeysuckle and Annie Power would have still won their Champion Hurdles even if they were racing on level weights against the males.
It is one of those things where whatever rule you use there will always be races where it can be taken advantage of if you got a very talented mare.
“It can be taken advantage of if you got a very talented mare.”
The allowance is the reason why I thought she would win today. There was a doubt about her over the distance, although I think that was down to the seeming lack of confidence from her connections rather than evidence.
I just could not see The New Lion giving her 7lbs and a beating. He didn’t set the world alight on either run this season and the form of his win last year doesn’t look great. The horse he beat is running in a handicap tomorrow.
I don’t believe he would beat her off level , surely a step up in distance and a fence will be the future for him, with State Man knocking on and Sir Gino unlikely to return I’d say after that supreme she’s got a chance of retaining
“It is why we are getting more top mares going against the males in the top races”
Yes that is the whole point. Statistically, if the system works, shouldn’t mares be winning the champion hurdle 50% of the time?
“there is a strong argument that the likes of Lossiemouth, Honeysuckle and Annie Power would have still won their Champion Hurdles even if they were racing on level weights against the males.”
Is there? 1lb=approx 1 length? At levels according to that formula
Annie would have been beaten by MTOY and Nichols Canyon
Epatante would have been beaten by Sharjah
Honeysuckle and Sharjah (on ground softer than his ideal, perfect for her) would have been close and strictly speaking if 1lb=1 length he would have won
Honeysuckle would have been pushed and again if taking 1lb=1l literally, beaten by a 5yo Zanahiyr, Epatante would have been beaten by him
Golden Ace would have won the freak race (though not if State Man had stood up) comfortably from Burdett Road
Lossie and TNL would have been close (dead heat taken literally) but she probably have won anywaySharjah and Zanahiyr (and Burdett Road and The New Lion) were/are good horses but not stars that were robbed by the weight allowance. Poor old My Tent Or Yours would have got his win though
I don’t believe The New Lion is that good, HDLG. The Turners he won last year doesn’t look like a good race now. He was having to work hard to beat Golden Ace and Anzadam at Newcastle before he fell. And he wasn’t particularly impressive at Cheltenham in January (where he was helped out by his main rival getting injured).
There is talk of the Aintree Hurdle but he had a hard enough race today and I wouldn’t be rushing to back him.
Just watched the closing stages again to see what happened with Alexei as I had my eyes on Lossiemouth at the time.
So unlucky not to get second. He had the other two covered.
The very top mares are still few and far between but given how good the race programme is for them, more mares are staying in training so the likelyhood is that some more will continue to pop up.
Winning distances and the lbs per length scale for me aren’t an exact science as I would argue that Honeysuckle was value for far more than the actual official winning distances she beat Zanahiyr (4½L) and Sharjah (6½L) by in her two Champion Hurdles. Golden Ace is a good mare but clearly isn’t on the same level as a Honeysuckle or Lossiemouth as she requires things to go wrong with others in the big race in order to win.
Interestingly, I believe that the famed 2m Punchestown match chase race between Buck House (the then 2m Champion Chase winner) and the Gold Cup winner Dawn Run was specifically run at level weights so that Dawn Run didn’t have that advantage to draw on and as we know, Dawn Run won the race by 2½L.
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