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I agree that State Man should take the world of beating, but what are people’s opinion on Iberico Lord who been supplemented for this. A forlorn hope, or real chance?
The best things in life are free.
But you can give them to the birds and bees.In this field I would ordinarily say that Iberico Lord is the one most likely for the forecast – but with the cloud over Hendo’s yard he could also quite easily be the one most likely to be PU.
I’m not sure where the Iberico Lord love comes from, lowest rated horse in the field once you factor in Luccia’s mares allowance. Sure he’s entitled to improve but so are most of these, Not So Sleepy and Colonel Mustard are the only truly exposed ones. If you look back at that Greatwood he was getting a stone off Nemean Lion and 10lbs off Luccia, he was an incredibly well handicapped horse that day and he’s proved it again since in the Betfair Hurdle but he’s still only winning that off 134. Zarak The Brave won the Galway Hurdle off 145 as a 4yo for context. I think its really open for that 2nd and 3rd spot between most of them because I’m very dubious about Irish Point’s rating of 159 after winning that 3m race last time.
TTM,
Irish Point’s best form is over further.
As you rightly say, Not So Sleepy and Colonel Mustard are exposed (although it is possible NSS might get a soft lead here).
Luccia was rated 142 some 12 months ago and then came down to 136 before winning at Ascot, for which she’s gone back up to 140. She still has potential, but can’t really say she’s improved much, if at all.
Zarak The Brave has been rated 152 – not improved (yet) – since October 1st.
I have backed Nemean Lion @ 40 and do agree he’s value. But even he. Has improved from 135 to 151, but has only improved at best 5 or 6 lbs from one race to the next.
Whereas Iberico Lord improved from 126 to 134 in the Greatwood (8lbs) and then 134 before the Betfair Hurdle to 143 after it. So has improved 17 lb already and 8 lbs and 9 lbs in one go. I think the 143 is lenient too. But even on those ratings if improving at the same rate he’s been doing recently would put him 152 and there’s always a possibility of more than 152.It is “open for that second spot”, but imo only Irish Point has a better chance of that second spot. I backed IL @ 30 when first entered at the five day stage. Even with the stable form if I hadn’t already done so, I’d have taken the 14/1 today, but no shorter.
The one Henderson horse to win since the trainer’s troubles was very well backed and this one is getting well backed too. Fingers crossed he can miss the virus and can surprise a few / you.
That said, right now Nemean Lion is imo the better value bet @ 40.
Value Is EverythingState Man wins this, Irish point run against Marine Nationale puts him in 2nd , as for 3rd it’s wide open , at a push id prob chance Zarak the brave on that Galway run
My 100% book:
State Man 73% 4/11
Irish Point 10.25% 17/2
Iberico Lord 7.75% 12/1
Nemean Lion 4.25% 22/1
Zarak The Brave 2% 50/1
Not So Sleepy 1.5% 66/1
Luccia 0.75% 132/1
Colonel Mustard 0.5% 200/1Backed Iberico Lord (ante-post) @ 29/1 and Nemean Lion @ 39/1.
Value Is EverythingI do understand the appeal of Iberico Lord I probably didn’t phrase my previous post very well I just don’t think he should be much if any shorter if at all than most of the other horses behind State Man. And in the interests of fairness for Irish Point, I’d sort of glossed over him giving Magical Zoe nearly a stone and fitness first time up over this sort of trip. I’m not sure many of the others bar State Man could give her a stone and fitness she won’t be without a chance in the County Hurdle off her mark. Basically I’ve backtracked on everything, I quite like Zarak The Brave and will probably back him, think he’s potentially going under the radar because he got derailed at Tipperary.
I don’t think there is a ‘Beech Road’ in that field, and the ground is probably not soft enough for a shock…..
One of my smarter moves was backing State Man in Oct/Nove in case CH didn’t turn up ….sadly I’ve done a number of stupider bets since
Unusually, the best value could be in the “Betting Without” market.
My 100% Book without State Man:
Irish Point 7/4
Iberico Lord 5/2
Nemean Lion 11/2
Zarak The Brave 9/1
Not So Sleepy 20/1
Luccia 33/1
Colonel Mustard 40/1Backed Nemean Lion @ 10/1 with a saver on Iberico Lord @ 3/1.
Value Is EverythingDid ok on this so far through Pied Piper, and decide to put that modest profit the way of something.
Chewed over Luccia and Colonel Mustard, and opted for Luccia
Luccia 40’s EW
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