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Surely only running for a place behind state man. Not that the stayers is easier.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Can’t help but feel disappointed. That said, I’d be hoping Gordon sends Zanahiyr to the race now (not a convincing jumper of a fence) as 50-1 e/w NRNB is starting to look less of a forlorn punt.
I wonder if Gala Marceau could go here to have a strong pace to tuck into and try to get a bit of prize money, rather than pulling round 2 1/2 in the mares’.
Gala Marceau 100-1 ew b365
One of the each way possibilities, me thinks, esp as it’ll be soft. A progressive sort.
I’ve backed Iberico Road @ 29/1.
The belief he needs soft or heavy ground is a myth.
Times on Betfair Hurdle day indicate the ground was no more than good-soft… And the Clerk tries to ensure it’s no firmer than good-soft on day one of the Festival anyway.Value Is EverythingLatest weather computer outputs are suggesting a drier few days (for Cheltenham) from the weekend than was forecast for the same period, only a couple of days ago.
Although we’ve had such a wet Winter in these parts, the ground will take ages to dry out properly.
There’ll defo be ‘soft’ in the going thru the 4 days i reck, but it may not be as soft as they were expecting.There’s a difference this year in grass growth though – we’ve had some bad winters recently where the grass has been a bit patchy but it’s lush grass this Spring, with some fairly strong winds over the next few days to help dry the top layer,
so it could be ideal racing ground on the TuesdayWilts, I’m not so sure about the soft ground. It’s dried from soft, heavy in places to soft all around in just 6 hours between the morning and evening inspections today. No rain forecast until Saturday so it’ll be pretty interesting to see how much it can dry by then.
Yes, possibly GM.
Actually, latest models DO suggest pretty much dry between now and the Festival (and during) bar the odd showery stuff.
So, yep, it could easily be Good, Good to Soft in places come racedays.Remarkable to think that only 2 or 3 days ago the likes of Nassalem was thought a defo runner next Friday ( trainer heavily hinted so), because of the (then) likely Soft going.
Cork, they’re so afraid of the anti’s these days, that wouldn’t surprise me one bit.
8 run.
Not much pace in the race.
Not So Sleepy doesn’t always lead these days but imo is the probable leader.
Other than that, Luccia might, as she made all last time out – but doesn’t always race so prominently.
Irish Point can race prominently but rarely leads early. However, with staying form if NSS does not make a decent pace he’ll need to take it up.Value Is EverythingTake out State Man and you have (what must be) the most god awful renewal of this race in living memory.
State Man should win this with two legs tied behind his back and if he doesn’t some serious question will need to be answered.
Not So Sleepy will most likely front run for sure unless like in other races where he hasn’t something else has decided to go on and the only horse I can see doing that is Irish Point (made all in a Navan G3 last year and has been prominent in other races too) as you would imagine that he will want to turn it into as stiff a test of stamina as possible as he simply won’t have the speed of State Man and maybe a few of the other specialist 2m hurdlers.
I couldn’t see a scenario where the others would be stupid enough to let Townend dictate his own pace and surely it will take State Man falling to not win this race.
Its an awful renewal but its the same race it would have been before Constitution Hill got sick only we’d be looking at 4 runners rather than 8, so its better as a spectacle and its better as a betting event getting two places and a w/o market to aim for, neither of which are a foregone conclusion. State Man is no closer to Constitution Hill than this field are to State Man imo hence the comment about the spectacle, it was a winner on the bridle either way. I suspect my opinion won’t be shared by the majority who would have been happy to see Constitution Hill vs State Man with nobody else in opposition.
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