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- Total Posts 23
For someone who has worked as a top yard and is an experienced trainer (or whatever you were claiming a few pages back), you dont appear to have a great knowledge of how the handicapper works.
the handicapper works in mysterious ways and seems to penalise horses differently often according to the yard they are representing … using their ratings as an argument is often very fickle as any great punter will tell you ….one of my mates was a top professional at the game the only guy who ever made any real sense to me and I learned a real lot from him.
I can quote two horses that ran on the same course, track and distance on the same going but in different graded races both carrying equal weights and both clocked within half a second of each other yet I recall one was given a rating 13lbs above the other simply because it ran in a higher graded race..what utter absolute nonsense. Needless to say when the lower rated horse went to the Festival it bolted up at 16-1 (I got 20s) and was a nice little earner that day.
No disrespect to the handicapper he is human and doesnt always get it right…egos too often get in the way like it does with everyone after all its a human trait we all want to be top dog…so the point here is I think for myself I question the facts work out what is so based on logic..not what someone tells me because more often than not its wrong…if you have done the same then good on you…..the argument will be settled come Tues night… best of luck- Total Posts 17716
binocular was rated 172 at newbury and got beat 7 and a quarter lengths off peddlers cross who was rated 151 – both had level weights so the handicapper should of rated peddlers 7 points above binoculars rating but he didnt do that thats why the handicap ratings are stupid. after 7 races binocular had the lowest rating out of the 2 . peddlers real rating should then be 179 on the system of handicapping. becauise bins won a champion hurdle he is higher rated proving the system is rated by grades and not ability which is totally unfair and biased. they do not go on the stopwatch as they claim to do, the only way to win is on the clock if the race isnt a crawl. so the real rating means peddlers is 179 and binny is 171 thats 8lengths better. it just doesnt work that way, have a look at the system and you will see its unreliable and completely fabricated by idiots.
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binocular was rated 172 at newbury and got beat 7 and a quarter lengths off peddlers cross who was rated 151 – both had level weights so the handicapper should of rated peddlers 7 points above binoculars rating but he didnt do that thats why the handicap ratings are stupid. after 7 races binocular had the lowest rating out of the 2 . peddlers real rating should then be 179 on the system of handicapping. becauise bins won a champion hurdle he is higher rated proving the system is rated by grades and not ability which is totally unfair and biased. they do not go on the stopwatch as they claim to do, the only way to win is on the clock if the race isnt a crawl. so the real rating means peddlers is 179 and binny is 171 thats 8lengths better. it just doesnt work that way, have a look at the system and you will see its unreliable and completely fabricated by idiots.
hey thats an interesting point you make there skyelaw and I think you have rested the case about the handicapper and put it to bed in a complete oner. I think Peddlers Cross is rated below his true mark as does his trainer who I read said he cant understand why overturn is rated above peddlers cross because its a complete no brainer …his words not mine…its well known that the handicapper got it completely wrong with last years novices as Menorah has also proved …so yes its true the ratings are inaccurate and based on whimsical inconsistent criteria…but one things for sure the clock never lies…so its … Peddlers v Menorah for a clean 1 – 2.
You both have it very wrong.
For a start these arent handicappers, they contest grade 1 and grade 2 races and will generally be running off level weights, so no horse has been unfairly treated as they arent horses who are targeted at handicaps. Its an honest assessment by one of the best judges of horses in the entire country – The official handicapper.
Now you both seem to think that because Peddlers Cross beat Binocular by 7 lengths when Binocular was unfit that Peddlers Cross should clearly have the higher rating.
This is of course absolute rubbish – The main reason being Binocular wasnt fit and the jockey never moved a muscle on him. Where as Peddlers Cross was off the bridle 2 or 3 hurdles from home and Maguire gave him at least 13 smacks compared to Binoculars zero smacks. So to suggest Peddlers Cross should be officially rated higher than Binocular on that performance is ludicrous.
However lets pretend you are correct and Peddlers Cross should be rated higher than Binocular on that performance,
Starluck was only 1 1/4 length behind Peddlers Cross (the horse who isnt good enough to compete at the highest level over hurdles).
Now on Binoculars 2nd run this season he destroyed Starluck by about 14 lengths at Starlucks favourite track (Kempton).
Using your completely incorrect interpretation of form this would surely mean that Binocular would have beaten Peddlers Cross that day by 12 3/4 lengths?Correct me if im wrong.
Binocular will eat the pretender Peddlers Cross alive. He is simply unstoppable here.
Agreed Zoso,
Horses don’t run to form in every race. To say Binocular is so far behind Peddlers Cross is crazy. I was there at Newbury, Binny was burly. You can’t just look at one horse and ignore the rest. The fact Starluk finished up close, means Binny did not run to form. That is not to say Peddlers Cross won’t win the Champion, just he needs to improve his form to do so. Both Peddlers Cross and Menorah have improved a lot since last year. Reve De Sivola would not be able to finish just 1 1/2 lengths behind Peddlers Cross, if running now. Get Me Out Of Here would not get within a head of Menorah now.Value Is Everything- Total Posts 17716
You used the official handicapper zoso to try back up your claims. You obviously dont really understand them yourself because all these horses have a rating albeit not very accurate but they do have value for alloting weights in hamdicaps and assessing horses rankings. Now I have shot down your official handicapper stuff in flames you are making up race statistics that simply never happened. Peddlers Cross has never been off the bridle yet he is the quickest thing on 4 legs the clock proves it perhaps not on your sun dial I admit. Yes he had a few reminders because Don McCain had done very little work with him yet he still beat Binocular very easily and not only at the business end. You are seeing what you want to see and not whats really happening. I dont recall Mr Henderson ever saying Binocular was unfit and if he was then it was wrong and deceitful to the honest punter not to say so. Of course that was not true because Binocular was fit he travelled well but he realised he never ever had any chance, he is too inconsistent you never know which horse is going to turn up. There are half a dozen other horses in this renewal that he cannot beat simply because this race is much better than last years and the year before the form clearly shows it. Anyway for the sake of a few quid I will refund your £1 ew stake if it gets beat god forbid, its only a race after all and I am already on Binocular at 16-1 haha
Anyone who thinks that this year’s race is weaker than last year’s must need their head examining
Binocular reminds me a lot of Harchibald – i.e. appears to be pulling double at the last fence and then doesn’t find as much as anticipated.
My prediction is :-
1st Peddlers Cross
2nd Menorah
3rd BinocularExcellent write up Bosranic, I’ve read numerous opinions on this year’s race but for me that is just about the best.
It’s helped by the fact that I pretty much agree word for word with it.
Sadly we are both staring failure in the face because another poster knows the outcome already.
"I knows me horses me"
Binocular out of Champion Hurdle!
EDIT – Allergy medication still in system after treatment
Edit (again) not a banned substance as originally reported by RPYou know I’m amazed at how many pundits keep saying that this years Champion Hurdle will be a lot harder for Binocular than last year because the opposition is so much better.
Let’s examine this conception by comparing the average official rating of Binocular’s rivals going into this race and last year’s race.
If we take the 7 immediately below Binocular on this years official ratings they have an average rating of 164.1429.
If we take the 7 horses that filled the places behind Binocular last year their average rating was 164.1429.
However if we include Binocular’s actual rating in the stats for both years then this years average rating goes up to 165 and last years goes down to 164. Therefore in conclusion the average rating for this year is only higher when Binocular is included. If he were a non runner that quality would be identical to last year.
CHAMPION HURDLE AS A HANDICAP
BINOCULAR 11-10
HURRICANE FLY 11-06
OSCAR WHISKY 11-04
DUNGUIB 11-04
MENORAH 11-03
KHYBER KIM 11-03
PEDDLERS CROSS 11-01
OVERTURN 11-01
THOUSAND STARS 10-13
MILLE CHIEF 10-11
SALDEN LICHT 10-06
BYGONES OF BRID 9-05Like a reversal with Binocular, must be an injury, or hopefully they don’t think they can beat Oscar Whisky well I do have Oscar.
A stunning development from the Henderson stable and it appears this enigma of a horse ends up returning to bite back all those big price AP players last year.
The lord giveth,………..
Shame for the race and another smear on the Henderson reputation administering a banned substance 2 weeks before a championship race. No mention about his ‘allergy’ in his press releases either.
On a separate note it’s very lucky that Aegean Dawn has suddenly found his sparkle again seemingly overnight. Must be something in the food I guess.
What a shame! A real pity last year’s champ won’t be taking part
Makes the race much easier for The Fly imo, but the spectacle of 6 potential superstars going at it is now greatly lessened.
Let’s hope the rest make it in one piece.
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Let’s be clear that the administration of the medication in question is perfectly legitimate; BHA rules simply don’t allow horses to run with it in their system. The problem is a distinct lack of communication, much the same as last year when Binocular came from relative obscurity to hack up.
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