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- Total Posts 17716
ok you and the others are welcome to your opinion about binocular. mick fitzgerald wasnt a very good jockey by todays standards and he is a worse tipster, he has a tipping line and the majority of his tips will be odds on- anyone can tip them. its not about toe on this track zoso its about stamina something that binocular lacks, he downs tools on the gallops and on the racetrack, i live in the north east and if hendersons horse wins on tuesday i will dive off durham cathedral backwards ha ha, best of luck to you all, i will be back on the forum to listen to all the hard line stories dont know what time though as i will be at the bank depositing my winnings. peddlers cross is following the same course of races that hardy eustace and istabraq took , he clocked 8 length faster time than hardy, he clocked 3 sec slower time than istabraq but the ground was running minus 30 so in fact with ground factor on both races peddlers was on level terms. timeform never tells a lie so he is a speed horse as well as having stamina. when kempes wins the gold cup and big bucks wins the world hurdle what a time i will have. cheers.
- Total Posts 23
Ummm my heart says one thing and my head says another hehe but the real best form on offer says
1. Peddlars Cross
2. Menorah
3. Dunguib
Menorah is a great horse very quick backed him last year..much respected very good chance.
Everyone forgets that Dunguib was only a couple lengths behind him last year having been over 20 lengths behind at one point and its funny how every time the bookies stand to lose millions the horse involved rarely delivers. He wont be ridden with the same restraint this time…he is better than last year and is a big player here and he could win.
Peddlers Cross… hasnt got the turn of foot? ..biggest joke ive ever heard…what utter nonsense he has speed and stamina to burn and he saw of Binocular at Newbury without ever getting out of first gear. He eased passed Rite of Passage on cruise control having been restrained all the way round and still in a time that only Istabraq could match. Binocular has had his day and he struggled to beat a poor rival last time and could only just beat Overturn the time before. Peddlers is in a different county to Overturn and he will break Binoculars heart because he simply wont be able to get past him not even in a turbo charged horse box … I reckon Peddlers will bolt up on Tuesday based on favourable form lines comparable to Hardy Eustace (I cleaned up at 40-1 that day) and the mighty Istabraq…its all there in black and white….you can dip your bread at 6-1 or throw it away on Binocular..Good luck everyoneIstabraq had 10 hurdles races before he won his first champion hurdle.
Hardy Eustace had 10 hurdles races before he won his first champion hurdle.
Inexperienced hurdlers who have had less than 10 runs over hurdles hardly ever win this race.
Peddlers Cross has had just 4 novice hurdle races. A win against an unfit and untouched by jockey Binocular (beating Starluck by less than 2 lengths). He only just about beat Bygones Of Brid at Kelso last time, yes he pulled away in the end but a furlong out it looked like Bygones Of Brid may get him.
The form is extremely weak in the context of the champion hurdle and he is very much a hype horse who will come up short on TUesday.
I think Hurricane Fly will take all the beating.
Simply put, I very much doubt he’ll be outstayed: he’s won over 2m 4f on heavy ground in Grade 1 company, when seemingly not at peak fitness.
This is something the "less speedy" types, such as Menorah, have yet to do. The consensus is that the likes of Menorah will need to get him off it to have a chance of winning, yet we know Hurricane Fly stays well beyond the trip which cannot be said of some of the others.
Combine that with his blistering pace and the 9/2 on offer looks huge. If it’s a sprint finish, it won’t bother him one bit. If it’s a test of stamina, imo he’ll still have plenty in the tank to produce that extra kick up the hill. Perhaps there is one in Britain to beat him (imo there is not), but at the price it’s an e/w bet to nothing in my view.
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Hurricane Fly’s two-and-a-half mile form is worth next to nothing; he beat the same tree in a slowly run race that he’s been beating over two miles in slowly run races.
I think the Champion Hurdle might show him up to be some way short of top class.
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well if you look at alderbrook and royal gait you will see that experience doesnt count that much – if peddlers can beat an ascot gold cup winner thats enough experience to take the hurdle crown, he gave it 7l start going for home and passed rite of passage as though he was stood still in a similar fashion to dancing brave. all the top trainers are scared stiff of it yet punters on here think its no good. anyway we will find out on tuesday let the best horse win.
"Armchair Jockey" wrote: Hurricane Fly’s two-and-a-half mile form is worth next to nothing; he beat the same tree in a slowly run race that he’s been beating over two miles in slowly run races.
Hurricane Fly is a good horse to divide opinion, on that I’d say we agree! People either think he’s a machine or massively over rated.
Solwhit is no tree though.
"skyelaw10" wrote: well if you look at alderbrook and royal gait you will see that experience doesnt count that much – if peddlers can beat an ascot gold cup winner thats enough experience to take the hurdle crown, he gave it 7l start going for home and passed rite of passage as though he was stood still in a similar fashion to dancing brave. all the top trainers are scared stiff of it yet punters on here think its no good. anyway we will find out on tuesday let the best horse win.
I don’t think anybody here thinks it’s "no good". I myself backed it for this last April, by the far the longest time period in advance of a race I’ve ever placed a bet anyway!
However, I think he may find one or two horses too quick for him, I wouldn’t mind being wrong though!
I think Peddlers Cross is no good.
And by no good I mean in comparison to what is required to win a champion hurdle as obviously he is a fair animal with lots of potential but unfortunately for the backers of Peddlers Cross – Potential is all that it is.
Binocular, Hurricane Fly, Dunguib, Oscar Whiskey, Menorah and Khyber Kim are all superior horses to Peddlers Cross according to the Official Handicapper.
It really is all hype in regards to Peddlers Cross.
- Total Posts 23
just a bit of a pointer Kempski finished 97lengths behind Peddlers Cross at Kelso last time and today Kempski led all the way and won a grade 3 fairly comfortably. As you can see the Kelso run wasnt weak form at all it was a very respectable time on heavy ground for a horse that was just out for a blow in an uncompetitive race and the fact is Peddlers had plenty in hand that day and Id challenge anyone to find another horse that clocks that time on that ground when he is still in first gear. The fact he has only had 7 races so far shows just how good he is and that he is totally unexposed …he is already where Istabraq and Hardy Eustace were a year in advance. I agree about Hurricane Fly I think he is very good horse but just got slight niggles about him liking Cheltenham but apart from that he is class and has chances.
I work form out myself so dont really go on what the pundits say and its served me fairly well in competitive races I have backed many winners not just at the Festival but time and time again …and the facts here are telling me to back Peddlers Cross….I could be wrong after all theres no certainties but at 6-1 win or (ew) you cant go wrong. I cant believe the price on Big Bucks for the world hurdle and that is all down to the media hype for Grand Cru a lovely horse yes but with an awful lot to do just to get anywhere near the supreme hurdling Master. Roll on next week for a great Festival.just a bit of a pointer Kempski finished 97lengths behind Peddlers Cross at Kelso last time and today Kempski led all the way and won a grade 3 fairly comfortably. As you can see the Kelso run wasnt weak form at all it was a very respectable time on heavy ground for a horse that was just out for a blow in an uncompetitive race and the fact is Peddlers had plenty in hand that day and Id challenge anyone to find another horse that clocks that time on that ground when he is still in first gear. The fact he has only had 7 races so far shows just how good he is and that he is totally unexposed …he is already where Istabraq and Hardy Eustace were a year in advance. I agree about Hurricane Fly I think he is very good horse but just got slight niggles about him liking Cheltenham but apart from that he is class and has chances.
I work form out myself so dont really go on what the pundits say and its served me fairly well in competitive races I have backed many winners not just at the Festival but time and time again …and the facts here are telling me to back Peddlers Cross….I could be wrong after all theres no certainties but at 6-1 win or (ew) you cant go wrong. I cant believe the price on Big Bucks for the world hurdle and that is all down to the media hype for Grand Cru a lovely horse yes but with an awful lot to do just to get anywhere near the supreme hurdling Master. Roll on next week for a great Festival.Are you really attempting to use Kempski as a marker!? He has been laid out for that race each year and his run behind Peddlers bares no significance to the Champion Hurdle whatsoever! He may well win, but that logic really is clutching at straws…
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the handicapper has worked his ratings out on how many races hes had thats all, hes made a big mistake then. hurdlers are mainly only cast offs from the flat that cant win many races so they send them over timber? but if you put peddlers on the flat he would clean up, so would big bucks. nicholls has took a flat licence out recently , maybe hes going to run in the ascot gold cup like he hinted in an interview, i hope mcain does the same and runs his. the handicapper never got it right when make a stand won the crown, he was only a handicapper, i dont think ratings wins races, youre getting selling platers breaking track records these days racehorses are just getting better and better. as for years ago the ratings were not accurate? hand timing can be way out compared to electric timing. desert orchid clocked over 30 seconds faster time than arkle did on identical tracks with the same going and weight yet dessies rating wasnt as high. the time, going and wind is all taken into account on ratings, but hand timing was false. that race at kelso was fast on the ground being heavy. he led on the bit and was just out for a run, bygones of brid led all the way and got pounced on? read the write up or watch the race again he never got to peddlers once he overtook him. . i wonder why all the trainers in the champion mention my selection as the one to beat. id like your views on the gold cup on the other gold cup column.
- Total Posts 17716
the handicapper has worked his ratings out on how many races hes had thats all, hes made a big mistake then. hurdlers are mainly only cast offs from the flat that cant win many races so they send them over timber? but if you put peddlers on the flat he would clean up, so would big bucks. nicholls has took a flat licence out recently , maybe hes going to run in the ascot gold cup like he hinted in an interview, i hope mcain does the same and runs his. the handicapper never got it right when make a stand won the crown, he was only a handicapper, i dont think ratings wins races, youre getting selling platers breaking track records these days racehorses are just getting better and better. as for years ago the ratings were not accurate? hand timing can be way out compared to electric timing. desert orchid clocked over 30 seconds faster time than arkle did on identical tracks with the same going and weight yet dessies rating wasnt as high. the time, going and wind is all taken into account on ratings, but hand timing was false. that race at kelso was fast on the ground being heavy. he led on the bit and was just out for a run, bygones of brid led all the way and got pounced on? read the write up or watch the race again he never got to peddlers once he overtook him. . i wonder why all the trainers in the champion mention my selection as the one to beat. id like your views on the gold cup on the other gold cup column.
For someone who has worked as a top yard and is an experienced trainer (or whatever you were claiming a few pages back), you dont appear to have a great knowledge of how the handicapper works.
- Total Posts 23
just a bit of a pointer Kempski finished 97lengths behind Peddlers Cross at Kelso last time and today Kempski led all the way and won a grade 3 fairly comfortably. As you can see the Kelso run wasnt weak form at all it was a very respectable time on heavy ground for a horse that was just out for a blow in an uncompetitive race and the fact is Peddlers had plenty in hand that day and Id challenge anyone to find another horse that clocks that time on that ground when he is still in first gear. The fact he has only had 7 races so far shows just how good he is and that he is totally unexposed …he is already where Istabraq and Hardy Eustace were a year in advance. I agree about Hurricane Fly I think he is very good horse but just got slight niggles about him liking Cheltenham but apart from that he is class and has chances.
I work form out myself so dont really go on what the pundits say and its served me fairly well in competitive races I have backed many winners not just at the Festival but time and time again …and the facts here are telling me to back Peddlers Cross….I could be wrong after all theres no certainties but at 6-1 win or (ew) you cant go wrong. I cant believe the price on Big Bucks for the world hurdle and that is all down to the media hype for Grand Cru a lovely horse yes but with an awful lot to do just to get anywhere near the supreme hurdling Master. Roll on next week for a great Festival.No thats stupid ..theres no straws to be clutching at … if you check the overall real form figures its there in black and white…what im saying here is that the Kelso run itself was more than ok on the clock and that race in itself has been franked by a horse beaten out of sight winning a grade 3 …shows they were no mugs. Incidently that Kelso race was 6 seconds faster than the one in which Zaynar got beat the year before on the same ground and both those horses were really all out that day whereas it was little more than a routine canter for Peddlers. Some people just decide things on what the media tells them without questioning it for themselves …I dont I crunch the facts and the fool who suggested it was weak form could start by taking a course in mathematics because the form is clearly on a par with the great Hardy Eustace and the Mighty Istabraq and theres nowt here in their class.
Are you really attempting to use Kempski as a marker!? He has been laid out for that race each year and his run behind Peddlers bares no significance to the Champion Hurdle whatsoever! He may well win, but that logic really is clutching at straws…
- Total Posts 17716
ratings dont mean a thing in racing zoso, you must have the wrong idea about horses – it means nothing if a horse is rated higher, thats not the way to read form, if you do you will lose money. when a horse is ready to win it doesnt matter if he carries extra weight as the weight wont stop it. there are different sizes and weight carrying abvilities in different horses thats why the handicapper doesnt get it right. crisp gave red rum 2 stone but he was a lot stronger built horse, if red rum had been off level weight he would of still beat crisp, its just a lame excuse. rummy carried 12 st the year after and still won easy, this handicapping is a farce thats why all the top rated dont win all the time. the handicapper gives them higher ratings but not on 1 race like you seem to think, i suggest you study how it works not me.the system is unfair anyway. make a stand was a selling plater like red rum they were not rated? do you know what i mean? i bet you are one of these favourite backers that backs the top rated in every race you bet in am i right. after peddlers wins on tuesday the handicapper will give him a big rating but its not worth the paper its written on. you cant rate horses on 1 or 2 runs like he may be doing.a horse in a sprint will clock the same times carrying 9 st or 11 st. i tell you what,give me 6 horses for cheltenham and i will give you six and see who has the most winners,
I consider this to one of the most intriguing, competitive and classy renewals of the race for many a year.
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Binocular
was a very impressive winner twelve months ago and has given every indication that he’s as good as ever. I think connections have endured something of a learning curve with the horse since his third to Punjabi in this race two years ago.
Many questioned his ability to get up the Cheltenham hill in the build up to the race, but the way he stayed on to finish third suggested that was nonsense. Connections were never happy with him last season until the week leading up to The Festival. It’s been a different story this year, but you still get the feeling that whatever he’s done thus far he will be even better at Cheltenham.
I am not worried about his rather workmanlike effort to defeat a vastly inferior rival at Sandown last time out. He struggled to beat a 137-rated horse in the same race last year before his scintillating performance in March.
Menorah
has continued to progress well this year. He is a talented and consistent horse – winner of six of his nine starts and second in the remaining three. He clearly loves Cheltenham and is currently unbeaten in three starts at the venue, including last years Supreme.
He returned to land the Greatwood Hurdle, where he gave 27lb to Bothy, and took an apparent step up in class when tackling the International Hurdle, where he ran out an impressive winner, displaying a lethal turn of foot.
Initially, I was impressed with the performance, but there are still questions regarding just how much Cue Card finds off the bridle, while Silviniaco Conti has subsequently disappointed and is being aimed at the staying division next year.
In short, Menorah displayed an impressive turn of foot against horses who have performed well over further, but just how will it compare to that that of Binocular and Hurricane Fly? I asked the same question last year about Zaynar and my apprehensions were justified.
The big field and fast pace will certainly play to his strengths, though
The only unbeaten horse in the field is
Peddlers Cross
. A horse not short of speed, complimented by an abundance of stamina. He lowered the colours of Binocular on their respective seasonal bows at Newbury in November, where he really staked his claim as a live Champion Hurdle contender.
Binocular travelled like the best horse in the race before tiring and we all know that he isn’t at his brilliant best during the first half of the season, so I think Peddlers Cross could struggle to confirm that form. He looks sure to run a big race and should be thereabouts.
I don’t think a horse with such blatant ability has had to answer so many questions going into a Champion Hurdle.
Hurricane Fly
has won nine of his eleven starts over hurdles, with seven victories coming at the highest level. One could argue that the last four of these have come at the expense of the same horse, but his form has been rock solid since the embryonic stages of his hurdling career.
He gave Go Native a 10L hammering at Leopardstown before that one progressed to beat Medermit and Somersby in the Supreme. They would renew rivalry at Punchestown the following April, where the result was yet another 10L defeat. This time Go Native could only manage fourth, with Kempes and Riverside Theatre filling the frame.
He will need to improve if he wishes to dominate Binocular in the same fashion he has Solwhit, but for all the things said about the horse, he’s a straight-forward customer who travels and hurdles well. He has as good a turn of foot as anything in the race and if he acts around Cheltenham, he will go very close to usurping the champion.
He always gives the impression that he’s doing a little to much in his races and that, combined with the uphill finish, could neutralize his potent kick. The fast pace will be a huge assist and should help him settle.
Dunguib
looked a machine when he won the Champion Bumper two years ago. He made a fine start to his hurdling career and finished a creditable third behind Menorah in the Supreme last year. He was 15L adrift of Hurricane Fly when only sixth in his first venture outside novice company next time.
His engine has never been questioned, but he has so often struggled in the hurdling department and can not afford to be anything other than foot perfect in this exalted company. If the ground was testing I would give him a live chance, but that looks very much unlikely and he will do well to finish in the first four.
Oscar Whisky is improving all the time and would have had an outstanding each way chance in an average renewal. Sadly this isn’t and he will do well to make the frame. He is a fine chasing prospect, but will surely find a few with too many gears.
Khyber Kim found only Binocular too good last year. His reappearance could only be deemed satisfactory, but he looked far from wound up that day and a return to his beloved Cheltenham will help. With so many talented young pretenders to contend with, the ‘old man’ of the field may struggle to fill the same position this year.
Mille Chief comes into the race boasting a similar profile to Oscar Whisky. Another who is progressing nicely and thoroughly deserves his place in the field. Nothing wrong with his defeat by Aegean Dawn at Ascot, trying to give that talented rival lumps of weight, and he took the step up to Graded company in his stride with a narrow success over former Champion Hurdle runner-up, Celestial Halo. That effort still leaves him a fair bit to find with the principles.
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This is a much anticipated renewal and I think Binocular will prove himself the best two mile hurdler since Istabraq by successfully defending his crown. Hurricane Fly is the main danger and if he settles well off the expected fierce pace then he will pose a massive threat. Peddlers Cross has done nothing wrong and will make sure the aforementioned duo know they’ve had a race.
1 BINOCULAR
2 HURRICANE FLY
3 PEDDLERS CROSS
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