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"andrewhill343" wrote: I think if anything is to beat Binocular, they’ll have to travel with him which imo rules out Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Oscar Whisky(only judged on his Supreme running btw).
Merely playing devils advocate here but Captain Cee Bee didn’t travel as well as Binny in the Supreme yet still managed to mow him down up the hill.
Still think Hurricane Fly will take beating by the way.
There is a bit of value in Thousand Stars at 50/1 e/w NRNB . TS has won at Cheltenham and comes from an in-form stable. Perhaps if one of the main contenders doesn’t turn up he could sneak a place.
The Mullins camp are so confident in Hurricane Fly that it looks like Paul Townend will take the ride. As Imperial said Paddy Mullins said that Menorah was absoutely destroyed in a schooling bumper against Hurricane Fly. If he gets their on the day and the ear plugs are in he will be punted off the boards. He be near to 5/2 on the day
The Irish are way over confiedent on Hurricane Fly, they treat him like he is the only horse ever to stuff Go Native and Solwhit who were smashed last year in the Champion, I think they think he is a Istabraq as he has Classic genes. He is good but I’d say he is not Istabraq class like they think, but he has what it takes to win the Champion.
He is j 2nd fav and they say his price is way too big.
Clearly one of those races that is all about gut feeling and I agree that there’s not much value to be seen just now. HF unquantifiable, binny sets a strong benchmark. Menorah loves Cheltenham, finds for pressure and has a useful turn of foot. Oscar whiskey looks like he may be tapped if the pace isn’t strong. Again if the pace is steady dunguib looks to be more of a traveller. Khyber Kim is slightly unknown but once again may be better off a solid pace. Peddlers really hasn’t shown the form to win this race and looks suited to further based on his beating of starluck in the fifth.
All things considered menorah looks to be up with the best form off a slow or fast pace and offers the least questionmarks. Khyber Kim is the closest thing to value.I feel compelled to oppose Hurricane Fly based on his complete lack of course experience. I’m not sure whether it’s because I talked myself out of backing Menorah in the Supreme Novices but I just don’t think he’s quite good enough.
Binocular obviously has a big chance and I backed him last year but I think that he’s clearly a horse who’s very difficult to get spot on and you couldn’t back him with any real confidence until the day of the race.
Peddlers Cross is the one I really fancy this year. He’s following in the footsteps of Hardy Eustace and Istabraq in attempting to follow up a win in the 2m5f novice championship hurdle with a win in the champion hurdle and he looks to have all the requirements of a champion hurdler – a high cruising speed, a fluent hurdling action and stamina and guts at the business end. I also think he’ll absolutely relish the furious pace you always get in the champion hurdle as he’s looked as though everything has been travelling too slowly for him so far this season.
"RedRiot" wrote: The Irish are way over confiedent on Hurricane Fly, they treat him like he is the only horse ever to stuff Go Native and Solwhit who were smashed last year in the Champion, I think they think he is a Istabraq as he has Classic genes. He is good but I’d say he is not Istabraq class like they think, but he has what it takes to win the Champion.
He is j 2nd fav and they say his price is way too big.
I can understand people not fancying Hurricane Fly, but using the runs of Solwhit and Go Native at Cheltenham last year as a way of comparing the English and Irish form is bang wrong. Solwhit was a sick horse last year and probably should not have run at all, while I’m fairly certain Go Native had a valid excuse (perhaps someone else remembers, was he lame/sick?) and hasn’t run since.
Neither showed their true form that day. Hurricane Fly may well be beaten, and while his lack of course experience and form against the top English opposition are perfectly valid reasons for opposing the Fly, I feel that using the runs of Go Native and Solwhit in last year’s Champion as a way of comparing form is not wise.
I think if anything is to beat Binocular, they’ll have to travel with him which imo rules out Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Oscar Whisky(only judged on his Supreme running btw).
Merely playing devils advocate here but Captain Cee Bee didn’t travel as well as Binny in the Supreme yet still managed to mow him down up the hill.
Very true but I think it’s worth noting Binocular was a 4yo running against 6 and 7yos and strengthened enormously the following summer. Anyway, what astounds me most looking back to them days is Binocular was rated 169 as a 4yo!
my first bet for this years festival was a double on hurricane fly and diamond harry,and until 2 weeks ago i was quite happy.then i remembered i’d backed khyber kim last year,and people started saying he was overpriced.so i had a little e/w.but then binocular hammered him last year,but i’ll never forgive binocular for totally ruining me in the supreme.and if menorah is 9-2 for the champion,then cue card should be odds on for the opener.but peddlers cross has been impressive…dunguib it is then..i’m kidding he can’t jump,but he looked ok on his last run allbeit in poor company.having hammered into him for last years supreme,he owes me…but,i’m a big movie fan and not disinclined to a drop of the good stuff,so oscar whiskey appeals to me a lot.he does look a serious horse though…so to sum up,most likely winner..binny,surprise package,..dunguib,but me,i’m sticking with the fly(in the ointment)..(dont get me started on the arkle)
Looking at the runners in the CH and their official ratings, it is clear to me that Menorah is far too short in the betting.
He is rated below Oscar Whisky and the same as Khyber Kim. On what he has achieved on the racecourse he should be 10/1This unbeaten tag with Peddlers Cross is keepimg him far shorter than he should be. The handicapper has him rated 9lb below Binocular despite beating him in the fighting fifth. Binocular was clearly not fully wound up in that race evidenced by his trouncing of Starluck at Kempton. Peddlers Cross was trading at 16/1 earlier in the season, he is available at 6/1 in places but I would have him at more like 8/1 which is still far shorter than his achievements merit.
Hurricane Fly at 11/2 is probably a fair reflection of his chance.
Dunguib would need to improve a stone on what he has achieved on the track, it seems to me that punters are still backing him on the memories of his bumper win, he should be 25/1
I can’t fancy Mille Chief at Cheltenham, his best chance of glory would be in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, punters are backing him on the Alan King hype that nothing can work with him on the gallops. He should be 25/1
So based on the merits of performance on the track, I would price the race as follows:
BINOCULAR 6/4
HURRICANE FLY 11/2
OSCAR WHISKY 7/1
MENORAH 8/1
PEDDLERS CROSS 10/1
DUNGUIB 25/1
MILLE CHIEF 25/1
ANYTHING ELSE 50/1Having nailed my colours firmly to the mast of Binocular, the only other bet I may have on this race if the ground is genuine good groung will be each way on Clerks Choice currently trading at 150/1 with Betfair
Agree with the earlier posts, A right old fashioned head scratcher of a race.
I’ve backed Oscar Whisky A.P at 16’s but on the day I think i’ll be backing Peddlers Cross…Fate may be at his hooves.
K.K has to be over-priced at 25’s though!
I’ve spent some time going through the CH this weekend and the more I look at it, the less keen I am on Peddlers Cross. To declare my interest, I’ve had a small bet on OW since December:
Peddlers Cross : Winner of Neptune, Fighting Fifth (Newbury) and Kelso Trial. Won the Neptune well, fought back despite Reve De Sivola getting first run. Showed class to win with a fair bit in hand. To my mind Reve De Sivola has always looked a stayer (Challow, Chase win this season). On a sliding scale – 1 being speedster, 10 being dour stayer – where does RDS fit? I’m thinking around 7. Does flashing past a stayer show the requisite speed to deal with top class 2 mile hurdlers? Not sure.
Won the Fighting Fifth. To my mind it isn’t logical to use Binocular as any kind of marker for handicapping purposes. His trainer was very public at the beginning of the season saying that all he cared about was the CH in March. To me the runner up Starluck has been overrated in terms of OR. His 160 rating was ‘earnt’ running close to an unfit or under-performing Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle 2009. I can’t have that – Cape Tribulation was too close. To me, Starluck is more of a 150-155 horse. Buying his ‘CV’ from timeform today they rate him 155 at best whilst RPR and OR suggest 160. Long story short, best I can give PC for his FF run is 157+.
The Kelso run didn’t impress visually but I don’t want to get bogged down with a heavy ground prep run. However, a worry I have with Peddlers Cross is summed up in one horse: Bygones of Bird. This horse has been consistently rated around 140 and has been involved in Peddlers Cross’ last three runs, results below :
Aintree : beaten 12 lengths when weakening (155+ best PC can be rated)
Fighting Fifth : beaten 12 1/4 lengths (155+ best PC can be rated)
Kelso : beaten 11 lengths (155+ best PC can be rated)That’s fairly consistent; but is it good enough? I may be making a huge error in this assessment but Starluck (at Kempton and Newbury) and Bygones of Bird don’t strike me as hugely unreliable marker horses.
PC undoubtedly has huge scope to improve, has shown tremendous battling qualities and his trainer is both bullish and highly respected. Improvement is likely but he arguably needs at least 8-12lbs.
Judged on pre race/post race Racing Post Ratings, two horses in the last 10 years have shown that kind of improvement to win – Hardy Eustace (14lbs RPR improvement) and Sublimity (19lbs RPR improvement).
Clearly it can be done but – I’m with Sea Pigeon – something like 8-1 looks a fairer assessment of his chances.
Wilts,
Your probably right about M Chief but my bet is on now, albeit to min stakes. I’ll have to suffer the consequences. Let’s hope he sneaks into a place!
Thank’s for the re-assurance (LOL)
I think Mille Chief will be the ‘shock’ winner this year. Though I don’t personally see it as a shock! Whilst I agree he has something to find, Alan King keeps saying that with better ground we will see his turn of foot and he now travels through his races very well. I think the fast pace they will undoubtedly go, on good ground will see him quicken up the hill and be bang there at the end. I think that the run against Celestial Halo is probably a bit better than it first seemed and the horse just gets better with each race.
I backed him at 33’s before his first run this season (admittedly you could get 66’s afterwards!) and I am excited about his prospects in what has the makings of a truely great renewal.
Just my opinions of course but in my last post I tipped Cue Card for the bumper last year…. fingers crossed
Oh and I had a stable tour at Barbury Castle the day Mille Chief was beaten by Agean Dawn. Alan King predicted the result (and his horse in 3rd) and said before hand that Mille Chief was very much in need of that second run. He has a glint in his eye about Mille Chief and a week Tuesday hopefully we will all see just why…
I may be making a huge error in this assessment but Starluck (at Kempton and Newbury) and Bygones of Bird don’t strike me as hugely unreliable marker horses.
I don’t understand your logic rbm, if they are so unreliable why have you used them to rate Peddlers Cross?
I may be making a huge error in this assessment but Starluck (at Kempton and Newbury) and Bygones of Bird don’t strike me as hugely unreliable marker horses.
I don’t understand your logic rbm, if they are so unreliable why have you used them to rate Peddlers Cross?
Shabby – I think that both horses ARE relatively reliable marker horses.
Regarding OW – a brilliant line from an interview with Dai Walters this week in the RP – ‘somebody told me, that Nicky told him that Oscar Whisky might just be the best horse he’s ever trained!’
Love the fact the owner is listening to the rumours about his own horse
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