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The decision to go for the Ryanair with IEF is understandable. Probably has a lot more to do with the going placing less emphasis on stamina than anything else. Also: Had front-runner Soleness not been in the race it might have been worth taking a chance, but the O’Brien horse likes to race similarly to IEF.
The Racing Post quote from the stable:
“At Kempton we let him roll along and do his own thing as we didn’t want him to get tense but we’ll probably ride more of a waiting race from the front this time”…I suspect Protektorat might not let him do too much of a “waiting race from the front” in the Ryanair either.
Value Is EverythingJonbon hasn’t beaten Marine Nationale , I fully expect Marine to reverse the form with Solness , I thought he was given a gentle ride and prob has improvement to come as a chaser , we do know he loves Cheltenham
“Jonbon hasn’t beaten Marine Nationale”
Not long to wait for that to be confirmed, Marine has nearly a stone to find. Jonbon can run a few pounds below his best next week and still win with a clean round.
Mike Marine has been prepped for one race , more value backing him e.w than Jonbon to win in eyes
I can’t see Jonbon not winning this, he’s 9lb clear of his nearest realistic rival. People crab him because he’s only ever lost at Cheltenham, he has won there but never at the festival.
One of the two loses at the festival was Constitution Hill so we can let him off that one.
Marine Nationale is next in the betting, he chased home Solness lto who re-opposes in this race.
Danny Mullins went off in front and the pack thought that he’d just come back to them. He nearly did but then quickened away from Marine Nationale (and then was being reeled in towards the line). I think Marine Nationale will be a lot closer to Solness in this race, he had to expend plenty of energy to catch up to him. Has a good chance of reversing the form on better ground than last time.
Energumene is 11 and is best seen on a heavier ground than he’s gonna get, he’s likely to be in the Ryanair.
Solness is next, he should go off in front but won’t get as much of his own way.
Selection
Jonbon
Ew on Marine NationaleSome more accas on this morning , from a punting point of view my week is mostly dependant on Marine and Allmankind
I’ve added
Libberty Hunter each way at 40s this morn.
Just a small wager.
FYI – PP are running a “Without Jonbon” book, as well.Have i mentioned that my betting week is pretty much garnered around Marine Nationale … I haven’t … It is
Hope Jonbon wins
But added Found a Fifty as what with what happened in the champion hurdle today nothing is a certaintyVF x
Would very much like Jonbon to win- he’s the best two miler this season and next year there will be probably be a certain Sir Gino on his tail so tomorrow has to be the day for him. Not a betting proposition though, and as today showed us anything can happen in racing, I will have a small interest bet on Libberty Hunter (ew) who is very good round this track.
Jonbon 19/20 – Deserves this, hopefully gets his proper day in the sun. Let’s keep the bonkers stuff to the little races this time please.
This is how I see the CHAMPION CHASE:
MARINE NATIONALE: I can see why people backed Marine Nationale for this after his second to Soleness. Latter seemed to get an easy lead and MN got closest. That a career best effort over fences too. So more improvement could well come at the meeting where he won the Supreme with Michael O’Sullivan up. Would be a fine tribute to the man, but maybe sentiment is the reason he’s second favourite. As Mike rightly says – he needs to improve a hell of a lot to beat an in form Jonbon… And even needs to progress a good bit to beat a few other rivals too… Thought to be proven on a sound surface, although has since improved on softer since his action suggests Good ground won’t inconvenience him. My opinion of his chance is 12.5% a fair 7/1.
SOLNESS: Has gone at a fast pace the last twice, but hasn’t been taken on. There are other possible front runners in this. Quilixios’s stable is in much better form now (so I’d expect him to race closer than he did in the Dublin Chase) whilst Sloness’s / O’Brien stable isn’t in the sparkling form it was either (not that it’s in bad form right now). Both Energumene and Found A Fifty can be ridden prominently or be held up… And Jonbon himself likes to be up there too. That said, Solness is the likeliest to lead and is obviously dangerous if getting away. Steadily progressive, but quite a bit more will be needed to bet a top form Jonbon – unless given that positional advantage. Improvement has come on going that’s probably a little slower than he faces here too, but has winning form at a lesser level on a sound surface which was at the time up with his soft ground form. So I don’t envisage any problem with going. 10% 9/1
FOUND A FIFTY: Wasn’t right when pulled up last time out. Probably best to forget that run. Isn’t far behind on the form of most of these. Even has a verdict over Solness. But although placed in last year’s Arkle, if he’s to make the necessary amount of improvement I think he’ll need to race right-handed. Has spurned a good handicap alternative to race here. 5.5% 18/1
CAPTAIN GUINNESS: Did me a favour last year, but the truth is the form shown was nowhere near your average Champion Chase winner. Hasn’t been near even that form since May. Although De Bromhead is in better form now, it has looked something more than stable form. Rachael Blackmore rides; did she have the pick? 1.25% 80/1
QUILIXIOS: Captain Guinness’s stable companion Quilixios usually races on the pace. Well beaten by Solness last time, but Henry De Bromhead was in desperate form at that time. So might make more of a fight for the lead here. Could return to form and get nearer, but was beaten 8 lengths by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek and doesn’t seem any better than that. Has festival winning form – won the 2021 Triumph, but imo doesn’t always find much off the bridle. Small fields suit him best but this is probably too competitive for him anyway. Rachael Blackmore seems to have chosen Captain Guinness. 1.25% 80/1
LIBERTY HUNTER: Would’ve had a far better chance in the Grand Annual. Normally dropped out the back, so it’s possible he could “pick up the pieces” if ALL the others go too quick. But that is the only scenario I can envisage him winning. May also be better on softer ground. Despite the sound pace last time out was beaten 1 ¼ lengths by Master Chewy who was giving him 3 lbs. That form is some way below Grade 1. 1% 100/1
JONBON: I’ve already backed Jonbon. Forget the “Jonbon isn’t as good at Cheltenham” thing. As Jonny says, the times he’s been beaten at the festival have been when The Hill put up the best novice performance I have ever seen in the Supreme… And a second to the outstanding novice El Fabiolo in the Arkle. ie Jonbon put up (up to that point) career bests to be runner-up… And performances on merit better than most winners of those two races. The 2023 Schloer where he beat Edwardstowne 9 1/2 lengths also one of his very best performances. Unlike most if not all of his rivals we know he goes very well on good ground too. The only slight worry I have is if too many of his rivals go towards the front. He’s used to racing prominently so if unable to do so might not jump / run as well. Also, there is one horse with better form, just got to go back some way for it… 54.5% 5/6 Very much backable @ Evens.
…ENERGUMENE: I know he’s 11 years old, but is still capable of good ratings. Not many 11 year olds have tried to win the Champion and wins to runs 11 year olds don’t have a bad record. Moscow Flyer won as an 11 year old in one of the best Queen Mother Champion Chases, beating Well Chief and Azertyuiop. Energumene is lightly raced compared to most of his age too. Fewer starts than Jonbon. So there are some encouraging pointers. OK, he’s probably not quite as good as in his prime and will soon (maybe even now) go further on the downgrade. But Ascot was only his second run back from a long absence… And despite being run on ground verging on Good, that was imo the second best form shown by any of these. If he can do just a little better here could be a danger to the fav. His Spring form is immaculate – February to April – reading 1,1,1,1,1,1,1. Albeit none of those were on Good ground. Some people seem to believe he needs it soft or heavy – that’s daft. Some of his best performances have come on Good-Soft. If it is (truly) that surface will be fine. El Fabiolo (not fit enough) and Gaelic Warrior (needs softer ground to be effective at 2 miles) both haven’t made it here. So Energumene is the only Mullins representative and the trainer seems to be hitting good form again just as Cheltenham starts. Energumene’s current exchange odds are worth taking a chance. 14% 6/1 Available now at 8/1.
I’m already on Jonbon ante-post, so Energumene is only a saver for me.
If I hadn’t got on early I’d be doing it the other way around. Backing Energumene with a saver on the fav.Value Is Everything
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