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I was allowed £3.13 each way on Fox Norton but as I’m already on the winner restricted myself to 41p each way instead at 40’s
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Nathan, You’re a good judge with these long range bets, but aren’t you a bit nervous given the trainer’s mention – more than once – of a potential Gold Cup win for Douvan? He cannot be at all sure that 2m is the ideal trip and he could always decide to conduct a little test in 2017 and go for the Ryanair as he did with Vautour.
I would not back any Mullins horse antepost now at the festival. Not a single one.
It is in the back of my mind Joe
and because of that I’ve not gone in too deep. Just over £30 at 3/1 and many, many doubles, trebles etc at small stakes at evens
I like to pick one for the following year for Cheltenham and bet a few quid each week on them and build up a decent enough bet with the thought process of I’d be gutted to lose that amount in one bet on the day but over the course of the year is forgivable.
So far they have all turned up to mix success. Kauto Star first Gold Cup. Sprinter Sacre was evens for a long time when winning his first CC. Faugheen was my best return had him in a double with Noble Mission in the Champion Stakes with Faugheen 5’s at the time. My Tent or Yours each way when coming second to Jezki cost me a bigger one. My two defeats in the memory bank(I try to forget the losers quickly) were UDS last year destroyed fair and square but I started chipping away when it looked Sprinter was fit for retirement and Punchestowns started before Big Bucks was rerouted back to the World Hurdle.
If he goes the Gold Cup route I’ll have a day or two of sulking but I’ve bounced back from many, many harder situations and in the grand scheme of things Douvan running in the GC would be some sight.Blackbeard to conquer the World
I like to tick away with small bets like the one below Joe. Plenty of losers along the way but limited damage and if he turns up a chance of a return.
18-Sep-16
01:00:03 6 Folds (x1) Queen Mother Champion Chase 2017, Watford vs Man Utd
Betfair Bet ID O/0013708/00012040.83 61.76 Open
Queen Mother Champion Chase 2017
Douvan – Queen Mother Champion Chase 2017
2
— — OpenWatford vs Man Utd
Watford – Match Result
5.5
— — WonEspanyol vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid – Match Result
1.5
— — WonSouthampton vs Swansea
Southampton – Match Result
1.65
— — WonC Palace vs Stoke
C Palace – Match Result
2.05
— — WonTottenham vs Sunderland
Tottenham – Match Result
1.33
— — WonBlackbeard to conquer the World
Spoke to MUlholland after the race and now goes Shloer Chase at next month’s Open Meeting as think handicapper raises him a stone min, and will struggle from 156 in handicaps. If runs well there then you’d have to think could hopefully nick some place money in the Champion Chase.
im very much like you nathan. in 2015 kept having a double for a couple of quid each week on MINDING TO WIN THE OAKS THIS YEAR AT 8/1 AND THEN 4/1. with ORDER OF ST GEORGE AT 5/1 so by time the prices had really changed had a nice few quid double
im trying to sort out cheltenham now which is very difficultDouvan is unbeaten since joining Willie Mullins and has won at the last two Cheltenham Festivals.
He has yet to run over further than two miles and a furlong, but has been entered in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day – a race in which Vautour finished second last year – and could now be asked to step up in trip.
“I would say that before any of this happened (the death of Vautour) this weekend, we would have said we’d stay over two miles this year and maybe step him (Douvan) up in trip next year,” Ricci told At The Races.
“We will have to see. He would need a run before he goes and does that. He’s only a second-season novice so it’s a big ask.
“I think clearly he’s a Champion Chase contender and we’ll have to see how the season pans out.
“But I would say right now we will stick to two miles and maybe step up in trip for something like the King George, but the Cheltenham target would most likely be the Champion Chase.”
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ricci said that
Here he is with Chappers
http://mm.simplestream.com/play.php?c=attheraces&v=1792554
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Ricci said that
I know that it was him, not you, but it is factually incorrect.
It’s one of my pet hates; I posted a thread about it in the general forum a few weeks ago!
With Sprinter retired that Fox Norton bet looks better
Interesting to see how he fairs todayBlackbeard to conquer the World
Most impressive from FN today.
Race marred by death of Simonsig. He should have been put back hurdling long ago as he has never been able to jump a fence properly. I like Nicky and always have, but he got it wrong with Simonsig. Condolences to all connections, especially the groom.
Most impressive from FN today.
Race marred by death of Simonsig. He should have been put back hurdling long ago as he has never been able to jump a fence properly. I like Nicky and always have, but he got it wrong with Simonsig. Condolences to all connections, especially the groom.
You might be able to chalk the performance up a little as although pundits seem to think the ground is worse on the inside Coleman clearly thinks otherwise.
Most impressive from FN today.
Race marred by death of Simonsig. He should have been put back hurdling long ago as he has never been able to jump a fence properly. I like Nicky and always have, but he got it wrong with Simonsig. Condolences to all connections, especially the groom.
Timeform Race Passes comments:
Simonsig’s chase debut: “jumped boldly (not so much of a semblance of a mistake, and came up well when asked)”.
Second chase: “jumped well in main”.Just reviewed the Arkle and Punchestown Champion Chase.
Third chase: Didn’t jump with the same fluency in the Arkle, but can be excused because any horse that pulled as hard as he did that day wouldn’t be as fluent. Still only the one actual mistake. Timeform comment “clouted ninth”. Jumped better the rest of the way.Fourth chase: …It wasn’t a bold jumping display in the Punchestown Champion Chase, but jumped well enough – no errors and every chance at the last.
If Simonsig “has never been able to jump a fence properly”, Joe; then the vast majority of chasers have never been able to jump a fence properly.
It could easily be overlooked that Simonsig wasn’t much more than a novice – only four chases before today.
Value Is EverythingFox Norton really impressive. Special Tiara well below form and didn’t have much to beat, but even taking Simply Ned as a guide is now a top class chaser. Douvan will be a different proposition.
Value Is EverythingMark, from my blog in 2013 on the eve of the Arkle – note the pictures that accompany the article:
He was a very good horse, and I think I mentioned somewhere on here very early in his jumping career – perhaps even after his debut, that despite the praise he was getting from professionals for his jumping (your Timeform quotes are a good example), he could not bend his back properly. As I’ve bored you with often enough, I rarely bet simply on the basis of form: I watch out for characteristics like this in horses. He could get from one end of a fence to the other but he could not jump properly, by which I mean efficiently; he regularly lost energy by brushing his back legs through the birch. That sort of thing mostly goes unnoticed because many judge a horse’s jumping by how he lands at the front.
I know you do a lot of research for your posts. If your’e so inclined, have a look back through the videos of his races: you’ll find very few clean jumps at his backend. Long Run had a similar tendency, though his kicked in mostly when he was tired. Simonsig did it at any stage of a race and for my money, this is incurable (as I mentioned in that blog post, they brought Breisner in not long before Cheltenham 2013).
Thistlecrack jumps fences properly. Village Vic jumps fences properly. Two recent examples. Very few chasers make a perfect shape, but most can bend their back sufficiently to stay safe.
Simonsig’s style has always been an issue for me and always would have been even if he’d had the good fortune to survive today. Here’s what I tweeted before the race today:
Simonsig has plenty of talent, but to my eye cannot bend his back properly when jumping and that will always hold him back over fences
A sad loss. If NJH is having doubts about Altior’s jumping style, I sincerely hope he abandons fencing plans.
Thistlecrack jumps fences properly. Village Vic jumps fences properly. Two recent examples. Very few chasers make a perfect shape, but most can bend their back sufficiently to stay safe.
Don’t want to sidetrack the thread but I think Coneygree would be a much better example than Village Vic. Village Vic is pretty quick and flat and given his size doesn’t have the scope of the bigger, more obvious chasing types. If you look back at the Ryanair you will see he was far from foot perfect. Yesterday, he was given a relatively easy time on the front end.
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