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Paco Boy or Major Cadeaux for me. Chapple Hyam cant buy a winner either at the moment.
….then just realised he finally had one today!!
Trainer form is a huge burden, but when you have a decently able horse who can defy any stable concerns then it shouldn’t matter too much.
I’m close to being very confident that he should blitz these under the right conditions and tempo. His half-brother had a 5-3-1-0 record on good-to-soft.
I would prefer him on good at the least. How’s the weather?
If the Sussex run is anything to go by, the race is over.
Not much between Winker Watson and Major Cadeaux in the Sussex but I really liked WW as a 2yo and I think he is a speedier type and could progress more.
However there has been a lot of rain and more is forecast so very likely to be soft which may be a concern for WW who has never run on it though his sire won on it. MC and Paco Boy have both won on soft, the latter at Newbury but both have to give weight to WW though MC is a lb better off than in the Sussex.
Would like to hear Peruvian Chief’s thoughts on WW. I know he was echoing similar thoughts that he would have been extremely hard to beat over 7 furlong.
Winker Watson and Major Cadeaux have come out so to me looks to be between Paco Boy and Alexandros, on a line through River Proud there is not much between them and both will handle soft.
MDeering – Had he still been in the field, i would have really liked WW for the race, but on good or firmer. Loved the way he travelled on the firm ground in the Sussex, looked set to make Henry go before (in my opinion) running out of stamina. Not many of the top ones like both extremes so would have wary of WW on G/S or worse.
my ratings
141 paco boy
137 alexandros
132 laa rayb
126 welsh emperor
124 al qasi
122 arabian gleam
119 beaver patrol
117 ll ward
115 excusez moi
104 aeroplanewill back paco boy to win
I haven’t looked really closely at the race yet. On first glace though, I can’t quite work out why Il Warrd seems to be the Godophin 2nd string. You can come up with some plausable excuses for the average races he’s run (maybe the trip/course in the French 2000gns, & imo he’s patently failed to handle Goodwood twice now). If you are willing to take his Royal Ascot form at face value, it makes him at least the equal of Paco Boy (via Stimulation). A flat course like Newbury may suit him better as well.
Looks a penalty kick for Paco boy to me.
My money would be on Paco boy aswell but Penalty kicks are tricky things, many a great football player has missed from the spot for example.
John Aldridge Liverpool vs Wimbledon FA Cup Final 1988
Roberto Baggio Italy vs Brazil World Cup Final 1994
Nathan Hughes Railway Club vs Cant Remember Sunday Cup 1997
John Terry Chelsea vs Man Utd Champions League Final 2008Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Conditions were soft – I didn’t think PC-H would press on with the Winker.
I just worry what other 7 furlong races are out there up his alley. All I can think of is the Prix Daniel Wildenstein.
I would give Il Warrd a decent crack at a price.
Interesting, Colin. Il Warrd seems to have been highy regarded. Sounds like a plausible value bet.
Looks a penalty kick for Paco boy to me.
My money would be on Paco boy aswell but Penalty kicks are tricky things, many a great football player has missed from the spot for example.
John Aldridge Liverpool vs Wimbledon FA Cup Final 1988
Roberto Baggio Italy vs Brazil World Cup Final 1994
Nathan Hughes Railway Club vs Cant Remember Sunday Cup 1997
John Terry Chelsea vs Man Utd Champions League Final 2008Railway Club – Nice!!!
I think he is a really decent horse Paco Boy and i’ve followed him since he won on the all weather. Interestingly Il Warrd put up a similarly taking performance on the all weather and I would have followed him but then he was given the kiss of death – Godolphin… Why don’t they get rid of Suroor, it’s getting silly these days. Frankie’s had to get his G1 wins from Johnston this year and he’s hardly rattling them in!!!
I haven’t looked really closely at the race yet. On first glace though, I can’t quite work out why Il Warrd seems to be the Godophin 2nd string. You can come up with some plausable excuses for the average races he’s run (maybe the trip/course in the French 2000gns, & imo he’s patently failed to handle Goodwood twice now). If you are willing to take his Royal Ascot form at face value, it makes him at least the equal of Paco Boy (via Stimulation). A flat course like Newbury may suit him better as well.
Hadn’t seen that form line which means there are lines that put Paco Boy, Ill Warrd and Alexandros quite close together. Even allowing for the excuses the worry with Il Warrd may be the ground, he has only raced on GS at Newbury on his debut when beaten and Newbury likely to be soft.
At the prices I do agree Il Warrd does look the value bet but I would not want too much more rain. Goodwood does not seem his track and can bounce back to form. May not be good enough to beat Paco Boy but one is 74 one is 101. I do have Alexandros as having a better chance than his stable companion but only by 2% (unless there is a downpour).
Welsh Emporer on form looks plenty short enough this season, though again there does not look much pace on here. Could dictate.Mark
Value Is EverythingI’m not original but I think Paco Boy is the one here.
His win at Goodwood from Stimulation was very good and his win here in the Greenham points to him having no problems with the ground. The only caveat is that the jockey apparently said he hated the ground at Newbury.
Like others I like Il Warrd, but I’d be worried about him settling and like Ginger says, any further rain would be a concern.
I think Welsh Emperor is no value whatsoever. I wouldn’t back Arabian Gleam with monopoly money, never mind my own. Alexandros was well-supported last time against River Proud but the drop down to 7F may not be to his advantage, though I think he’s appropriately priced.
If there’s a weight of money on Paco Boy between now and the off I’d consider going for Al Qasi. His second in Ireland was good form and he should improve on his run last time out at Goodwood where the track and ground didn’t seem to suit hiim.
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