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I think it be KEYS 12/1 hacked up at Newbury a strongly run 2m2 is just right for him.And he be picking up the horses after the strong pace in the race.
When is the next elimination stage? There are quite a few outsiders that I’m looking at but could do with the field being reduced somewhat before I put any ante post bets on. Anyone know if any other bookies are doing first 5 [other than Betfred?]. I think William Hills did first 5 last time.
As soon as I hear that he is definately coming over for this then I will be having a very large punt (for me) on Rainforest Magic.
Was very, very impressed with his two successes at the Galway Festival this summer. Looks like he has improved significantly over the past 12 months.
I’ve backed
Ermyn Lodge
and
English Summer
.
Ermyn Lodge is an obvious one. He stays the trip well and looks reasonably handicapped and in form. Is too big, should be 16/1.
English Summer is gagging for a trip. It’s yet to be seen if he has the class/ability to win a race as competitive as the Ces but at 40/1 I’m willing to take the chance. He’s been out the back in slowly run races over short distances lately and his breeding suggests he wants 2m+. He’s related to 3 Group/Grade winners including two Group/Grade 1 winners and one G3 winner over 2m. He’s by Montjeu and appears to want a good gallop. Should be 25s but easy to see why he’s a big price on recent form.
Come back home to find that both Downhiller and La Vecchia Scuola have been scratched. Annoyed that I didn’t back Cosimo de Medici before his last win, but will probably have a bet after the draw [when is it?]. I also fancy Ermyn Lodge, although he does seem to be a bit free runing [think he has been held up in some races]. Ran well at Ascot, which is a key race. Also in that race were Phoenix Flight and La Estrella. I keep going back to La Estrella, even though he’s only won a Cl3. Backed him with Betfred 5 places thinking he might run on for a place [at least he’s a hold up horse]. Like Dazinski who will like the ground, but I don’t think he likes Newmarket; very much like Palomar who does like Newmarket, but probably won’t like the ground. Also keen on Colour Vision, although he’s a bit young, and the O’Brien horse is very classy but, again a front runner. Above all we need to know the draw. Is Newmarket one of the courses where they are numbered from the other direction now? Of all of them, Ermyn Lodge has got the least negatives; he’s also by Singspiel, and I said I’d back his horses in the long distance races this year. A very good stats race if I can just find the time to look at it properly! First 5 home last year were 30,16,13,17 and 28, and first and second had won a class 2 and won over 2 miles. Aaim to Prosper had won over the couse; won a cl2; won over 2 miles, drawn 30 and was my top rated horses. Not so easy this year…
If Nick Henderson’s Security Guard can translate his hurdle form to the flat, he’s very well-weighted, particularly for such a long-distance race. There’s been a steady flow of money for him too, seemingly – from 25s to 16s.
As soon as I hear that he is definately coming over for this then I will be having a very large punt (for me) on Rainforest Magic.
Was very, very impressed with his two successes at the Galway Festival this summer. Looks like he has improved significantly over the past 12 months.
He looks like a "job", doesn’t he? Albeit one among many, no doubt. Part-owned by Dermot Weld, expensive purchase, a low weight, judiciously kept down it seems; lately ran mostly in maiden hurdles – the last one, a handicap hurdle, won comfortably, like his penultimate one, a flat race. I don’t see Weld’s name among the previous trainers of winners in the RP, but will look further back. Either way would be a positive in my eyes, perverse as that sounds!
Just watched the finish of the afore-mentioned flat race, and the further he went, the more he seemed to enjoy himself and take off; skipping along very merrily. If not so impolite as to laugh at his opponents(!), he seemed very ebullient.
Vintage Crop hacked up in the 92 when a well-backed favourite ridden by the choir boy. Mind he was more than useful!
Yes Grimes, he was a very expensive purchase. Loads of stamina in his pedigree. Given his purchase price as a yearling they must have had very high hopes for this fella.
I’m hoping/guessing that he is a late maturing type for who "the penny has just dropped". If I’m right then a rating of 87 is unlikely to be the limit of his ability.
Haven’t backed him yet as I haven’t heard or read that he is a definite starter. However, will find out tomorrow at the final decs.
There’s no jockey booking for him yet. I see that Tom Queally is on My Arch so it looks as if Ajaan won’t be running [another of my ante post bets bites the dust]. What time is the draw?
What does anyone make of this French horse, Red Anthem? Seems to be a bit of money going on him this evening. Doen’t look anywhere near good enough, but if he got a good draw I might risk a few pence on him.
More chance of marrying Olga Kurylenko than picking the winner of this race but I’ll have 20p ew on Veiled as Nicky Henderson does well in this type of event. Keeping the big pennies for Dux Scholar who only needs pointing to win if gallop reports are to be believed.
I like Bernie the Bolt, but his chance does require a leap of faith. He was ante post favorite for this last year before injury.
The obvious problem is that he hasn’t been seen this year. Equally, this is presumably the reason he is still in training and the Balding clan do have a good record in the race – even if Andrew is yet to win it. I’ll have a small dabble at 25-1.
Is Newmarket one of the courses where they are numbered from the other direction now? Of all of them, Ermyn Lodge has got the least negatives; he’s also by Singspiel, and I said I’d back his horses in the long distance races this year. A very good stats race if I can just find the time to look at it properly! First 5 home last year were 30,16,13,17 and 28, and first and second had won a class 2 and won over 2 miles. Aaim to Prosper had won over the couse; won a cl2; won over 2 miles, drawn 30 and was my top rated horses. Not so easy this year…
The stall numbering has changed at Newmarket so I think you want a bottom half draw this year.
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