Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Cesarewitch 2023
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October 3, 2023 at 19:53 #1665475
I’ve thrown a dart at Vino Victrix 10-1 ew 5 places.
2nd last year off 92, and looking at his races so far this season it looks like he’s being readied for another serious crack with a view on protecting his mark. Unplaced in an all weather race, thrashed in 3 runs on seemingly unfavoured soft ground, and beaten just a couple of lengths back on good ground in his prep. Gets in off 90.
October 3, 2023 at 21:04 #1665495Triumph hurdle related double of pied piper in the ces and vauban in the Melbourne cup?
October 3, 2023 at 21:18 #1665500I tend to go for more recent – like last time out! – related contingency formline doubles, FF!
Vauban was on my mind with this bet, but whereas Vauban IMO was a lousy jumper of hurdles hence always likely to be seen to better effect on the Flat, Pied Piper jumps well enough IMO.
I could do with rain – and plenty of it – but the horse is undeniably well in for this on jumps form and in a year that’s seen Greek Order go off at 5/2 in the Cambridgeshire I could see Pied Piper starting ludicrously short as well.
That’s half the reason I’ve taken the 8s tbh.
Vino Victrix definitely wants decent ground, but IMO he had it at Goodwood off this mark last time out and he was beaten a couple of lengths into fourth.
This will be more competitive.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"October 3, 2023 at 22:14 #1665511“Vino Victrix definitely wants decent ground, but IMO he had it at Goodwood off this mark last time out and he was beaten a couple of lengths into fourth.
This will be more competitive.”True but he doesn’t want to have won that else he’d have a penalty.
He was running in class 3s and class 4s before his 2nd in this more competitive race last year so he’s able to step up if in the same form.October 3, 2023 at 22:34 #1665519The case made for Pied Piper is very persuasive. I usually like to have two or three in this race, so I have taken the 8/1.
I will probably add something else on the day to go with Pied Piper and Wordsworth.
October 4, 2023 at 08:14 #1665536Pied Piper on target for the race and thinks the ground will suit racing manager says. Trainer also said pre Cheltenham when it was soft “the better the ground the better his chance.” So added 8-1 ew.
October 4, 2023 at 10:15 #1665552Wordsworth, CAS’s interesting – and legitimately put up as the price was available at the time – 50/1 poke for this runs over hurdles at Bangor-On-Dee today.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"October 4, 2023 at 10:35 #1665556Wordsworth will be this seasons Brentford Hope
I will get a photo, I will, I will
I started to take a look at the horse that beat Wordsworth on NH debut but noticed it was in Ireland so form comes with a squiggle. Only beaten a neck but up with the pace all the way. Made one bad mistake but jumped well on the whole. A lot of these “classy” horse don’t always find a lot off the bridle over hurdles or pull too hard but Wordsworth was settle nicely and battled all the way from 3f out and ran past the winner after the line. It was a nothing of a race but he showed good signs.Blackbeard to conquer the World
October 4, 2023 at 10:42 #1665558Thanks for flagging that up, ID. I have not watched any racing since Sunday and was not planning on doing so today. I like to take a break from it sometimes – but I will certainly watch that race with interest.
I wonder how many horses that have been placed in an Irish Derby and Grand Prix De Paris have subsequently run at Bangor On Dee? I will take a wild guess at zero.
October 4, 2023 at 11:04 #1665563Having read the neverending Mike discussion on the Oaks i thought i’d actually have a look at a race bet and don’t worry there’s not going to be any quick price changes with this one.
Everyone on Pied Piper have a clear shout and the racing manager has stated this is clearly the plan.
Looking through the remainder of the field, i don’t get massive excitment from many.
One that has stood out, and was a bet for the Irish version until NR was The Shunter. It’s interesting that this is his only entry, most of the Irish contingent have the November Handicap as an option as well, including his stablemate Teed Up.
The Shunter has maybe had an issue or two, as Galway would probably have been on their minds if he was fit, however, he had a clear pipe-opener in August which i presume was for some of these late season staying flat handicaps. He’s 10, and has had a decent career and probably doesn’t look open to much improvement- whereas the likes of Pied Piper is only 5. However, he’s only had 5 starts on the flat + is well in on his hurdle + chase marks. This trip should be fine, and he’s a hardened campaigner so i’d hope this race will be right up his street. We know the trainer is superb at getting a horse ready for a big pot and there’s no doubt this horse owes JP a penny or two.He’s 25s across the boards, i’ve no idea if it’s the plan but it’ll be interesting to see if a quote appears- as i think he has scope to shorten even if he’s arguably on the downgrade. It’s never wise to take this trainer’s horses form literal.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!October 4, 2023 at 12:21 #1665576Mountain Road has been an expensive horse to follow for me, but I’ve had an early ap, for the sake of it really at 66-1 ew. I say for the sake of it, as he’ll probably be that price on the day
I’ll bet him again on the day, along with a more hopefully sensible choice to go with Not So Sleepy
October 4, 2023 at 16:44 #1665597I wish I had backed Wordsworth today! He drifted out to 2.24 on Betfair just before the race.
OK, the second favourite falling has made the winning distance much more than it would have been – but he would have won anyway.
I thought he jumped well enough and might have a future at hurdling.
Let’s hope that has put him spot on for Newmarket and Pipe does not change his mind about running him.
October 4, 2023 at 18:11 #1665602He looked like a horse who was thoroughly enjoying himself, CAS, and Pipe seems to still be aiming him at Newmarket. Good luck!
October 4, 2023 at 18:51 #1665604He had every right to win that race and I doubt it has taken too much out of him.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
October 4, 2023 at 19:25 #1665605“He looked like a horse who was thoroughly enjoying himself”
My thoughts exactly.
Ok, running off 105 in a “Ces” will be a lot tougher than today, but that may have sweetened him up and he seemed to race with enthusiasm.
Very few Flat horses truly stay 2m2f in a contest run at attritional pace.
But Wordsworth will.
By the Bushes 20 or more of the 30 will be out on their feet, but he will be plugging on.
Yes, Wordsworth is a boat, but’s he more QEII than Cleethorpes dinghy.
I reckon he’ll be in the first ten at least.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"October 4, 2023 at 19:29 #1665608Pipe was interviewed on SSR and confirmed he will run. He also said he will probably book a claimer to get some weight off his back.
If only a certain young jockey had not ridden so many winners around Wolverhampton…
October 4, 2023 at 19:34 #1665609“If only a certain young jockey had not ridden so many winners around Wolverhampton….”
Absolutely THIS.^
The longer the race, the more of a weapon a claim is.
If Billy could still claim even 3lb, never mind 5lb, he would be such an asset in a situation like this.
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