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https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2022-10-08/817914
This is particularly tough even at this stage, given the proximity of the Irish Cesarewitch.
Cape Gentleman, Scaramanga, The Shunter, Whiskey Sour, and my old pal Stratum, are all double engaged, so no option but to hold back.
The potential Irish Raider I really feel like having an early go on is Favourite Moon. Really caught the eye last time, and no entry for Irish equivalent. Be interesting to see what he opens at.
Of the home contingent, I’m assuming he’ll be short enough, but Adagio really appeals, as does the long absent Ranch Hand.
Early Shortlist
Adagio
Favourite Moon
Ranch HandNow had a bet…..
Favourite Moon 66’s EW 5pls
Seeing as there’s no racing in Britain today I had a big ante-post catch-up last night and this morning and finally got around to looking at this – far too late!
Adagio’s price has collapsed to 7/1 and it’s not hard to see why.
This is a gelding with an OR of 152 over hurdles who runs off a Flat OR of 87 here.
Various ways of converting the two, but my ballpark number is 50lb which makes him 15lb well in.
He finished seven lengths behind Echoes In Rain over timber at Punchestown in the spring and is 17lb better off here.
Adagio has to prove he stays 2m2f on the Flat in what is always a strongly-run race and this will be a more severe stamina test than an extended 2m over hurdles, but there surely isn’t a better handicapped horse in the race.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I like two potential runners here, Withold at 40-1, and Maze Runner at 33-1.
I’ve bet Withold, but I’ve held off just now with Maze Runner, though I’ll bet him too if he travels over
Adagio is a horse who I think that can win a decent race this winter, but in case that doesn’t quite go to plan, I’ll be betting him here.
I’m hoping that I can do better than his current odds on the day though, so I haven’t bet him so far
Favourite Moon is certainly interesting VtC- not best positioned at Galway and has strolled home since in a maiden hurdle.
As usual I am rather boringly sticking with a Mullins runner for now, although the least fancied of the ones who still hold an entry.
Baby Zeus hasn’t set the world on fire this year but is another who ran quite well at Galway from the back, and he was also slowly away- as is sometimes his wont- and hunted round the back of a bunched up field in the Petingo handicap. I get the impression that he didn’t really enjoy scrapping in the multi horse tussle to the line that day but perhaps he will find the space at Newmarket Heath to his liking.He’ll have a sympathetic pilot on board in the shape of Tom Marquand who rode him at Leopardstown and who I think will give him a chance to get his weird little head together. Trip should be OK- he’s a full brother to Lagostovegas- and he seems to handle most types of ground.
Baby Zeus 33-1 ew 5pl
Hope so Grass, but gonna be tough.
Best of luck with Zeus, good jockey booking, and nice price you’ve got.
Disappointingly small field for a Cesarewitch. No bet for me. I think the fav wins anyway.
Perhaps Waterville and the sadly departed Adagio scared a few off.
And dry summer, NH horses not galloping on grass yet- there are half the number of runners trained by predominantly NH trainers than there were last year.I”m taking a chance on Richard Hughes trained
Prince Imperial .. 25/1 EW
By Frankel he ran a great race to be 2nd to Rajinsky in the trial 3 weeks back and I’m happy to throw a fiver each way at him EW..best of luck. Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’d love to see Evaluation get compensation for his agonising £100k defeat at Sandown.
Hugely disappointed at the field size. It’s bad enough that the maximum fields for this, the Cambridgeshire and Ayr Gold Cup have all been reduced without connections entering a measly 23 runners.
I’ve no problem with the smaller field. Anything over 14 is tough enough for me.
My figures are dominated by Irish entries and their stayers certainly seem to have the edge on the handicapper (Lynwood Gold is top at in the 2 mile handicap at York).
111 Scaramanga
109 Favorite Moon
107 Withhold
107 Gibraltar
105 Not So Sleepy
105 Call My BluffTo keep it simple, split stakes top 4 against the field.
“I’ve no problem with the smaller field. Anything over 14 is tough enough for me.”
Couldn’t agree more
Willie Mullins one to follow in this race and Jason Watson the go to jockey so Scaramanga might be the one. 10-1 bog ew 6 places.
I often say the first rule of ante-post betting is make sure you’re on a runner.
But I forgot the existential rule that supersedes it – make sure you’re on a horse that’s still alive.
But my torn-up ante-post bet is unimportant – poor old Adagio didn’t deserve that.
Struggling to raise much enthusiasm for the race after his sad demise.
Mullins has his usual potentially-better-than-their mark squad, Run For Oscar and Ahorsewithnoname could be ahead of the Handicapper too and I was at Goodwood when Vino Victrix won, I was impressed and the runner up has won since.
The unexposed Baby Zeus is the Mullins one many are latching onto but I got a bit of 22 Gibraltar earlier in the week and think he should go well.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Call My Bluff came out top in my little ratings system when I looked at the race last night.
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