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A strangely subdued looking card at Goodwood today and I can’t get enthused about the favourites in the Yorkshire Cup where Estimate looks short and Brown Panther seems to be repeating last season’s pattern of starting well and then tailing off. Angel Gabriel may be the improver to upset the apple cart and at 11/1 he looks worth a poke.
The Lilly Langtry sees Miss United favourite and top rated but she is rated on a third place in The Gold Cup where she was 40/1 and we have to believe she ran to a career high mark at the age of seven after a lifetime of 28 races between flat and jumps, where her best win on the level came in listed company. She’s not for me at the odds, dropping 6f in trip.
John Gosden throws maiden winner Stella Bellissima into the deep end here and this Sea The Stars filly can only improve for her one run but she has quite a bit of ground to make up and is very skinny in the betting at 5/1, which is due to her trainer being in imperious form this season. It seems hard to believe that an Oaks winner is only half a point shorter in the betting.
Talent won an Oaks that didn’t look very good and she has been fairly disappointing since but she was runner up in The St Leger and ran OK behind Gosden’s 1-2 in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks last time. This looks an easier opportunity by a fair margin and perhaps Richard Hughes can work the magic first time up since he rode her to victory in the Oaks. I would rather have her at 9/2 than Missunited at 7/4.
Finally, Doc Charm looks massive odds at 33/1 in The Richmond. Ivawood is odds on but general 2nd fav Jungle Cat was behind Doc Charm when they made their debuts behind The Wow Signal, who later landed The Coventry. Doc Charm hosed in on the bit next time at Ayr in a race that hasn’t worked out but the trainer said the horse didn’t like the soft ground that day and that he would give the horse a break and wait for better going. This is a big step up but he’s done little wrong and if he’s improved as much as Jungle Cat has he’s a hell of a price and an each-way fun bet.
3.10 Goodwood Angel Gabrial 2pts 11/1
3.45 Goodwood Talent 3pts 9/2
2.30 Goodwood Doc Charm 1pt Each Way 33/1
Well Doc Charm hasn’t gone forward but I was more than happy to see Ivawood cement his position at the head of the 2000 Guineas betting after having advised him at 20/1.
Angel Gabrial ran OK for a way but seemed to run out of petrol today. It was wise to skip Estimate and Brown Panther though, and avoiding bad favourites is the ethos of this thread, making it better to lose 2pts on a bigger price than 10pts on a favourite in the long term plan.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A blank day but that happens in racing.
Having seen Estimate run a stinker in the previous race faith appeared to dry up in Missunited and she was a whopping 3/1 after being 7/4 last night. This looked a weak race and a listed horse winning it summed that up somewhat. Give the winner her due she is battle hardened and was game after several challengers seemed set to come past her.
Talent seems one of the poorest Oaks winners ever and even though she had a lot to do from the back today, she just doesn’t look a true group 1 horse.
Waila looks a horse to avoid for me, she had every chance but just doesn’t seem to get the job done.
Stella Bellissima was a joke price at 4/1 with about two stone to find based on a maiden win moving to Gp 3. As I said, Talent was readily preferred at what turned out to be a bigger price and despite not winning she was the better bet of the two.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Today’s card at Goodwood has too many short priced favourites for my liking and the progressive looking Sunset Sail for the Hannon team in the nursery looks the only one I’ll be with of the market leaders.
He took three goes to get off the mark but could still be improving and now that he has a handicap mark he could defy it. Osaila took longer to get going than the stable expected and perhaps it will be the same story here. Despite a couple of wobbles with short prices, the stable 2yos have been doing very well and it is not hard to imagine money coming for the Hughes ridden horse so 4/1 looks OK.
Earlier on the card Pethers Moon and Shifting Power look too skinny to me, as does Muteela later on for Mark Johnston.
Extortionist was a 10/1 early bet winner for me at Sandown last time but he lines up favourite this time and although improving, this is tougher and the form of his latest win hasn’t worked out well at all. I have been banging on for ages that Moviesta is best at five furlongs on fast ground but they have kept running him on soft and/or over 6f. He made a promising start this season and is worth one last chance to show he has retained his ability when the conditions are right. He won this race last year and something near that would win it again for my money. 7/1 is worth a dabble with the favourite a tad skinny for me this time.
Velox won well last time but seemed to take a bit of time to warm to his task. Maybe he might not be ideally suited by Goodwood and the Cumani stable have had a couple of quite well fancied handicappers beaten this week and this looks tough. The horse was 14/1 about a week ago and looks too short for me anyway at as low as 6/1. Our old pal Horsted Keynes may get his ground this time but his form is all at 7f and he was disappointing despite the slower than ideal ground last time. Heavy Metal comes here much shorter than his 33/1 win but it’s a risk that he can repeat the dose off a short break. I’ll pick an outsider and risk a token point on George Guru off a low draw. Probably best known for the all weather he seems to go OK for Rab Havlin and he might cause a mini shock at 22/1 in a wide open affair.
3.05 Good George Guru 1pt 22/1
3.40 Good Moviesta 2pts 7/1
4.15 Good Sunset Sail 4pts 4/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am winding this thread up and giving the forum a miss from now on.
It is quite time consuming making selections and writing them up and I am too lazy to keep tabs on how the thread has been performing.
There is little sense that what I am doing is of any interest or benefit to anyone and the forum in general is a lot quieter than I had anticipated it would be. There is also a lot less humour than there might be and far too many people taking offence at criticism of their, I am assuming, heroes.
We’ve had a few disappointments and a few good winners, some bad favs beaten and some bits of hard luck in the mix.
There is 12/1 Pallasator for The Ebor, 10/1 on Kingston Hill for The Leger, 14/1 Taghrooda for the Arc, 20/1 Ivawood for The 2000 Guineas, 25/1 Highland Reel for The Derby and 25/1 for Al Naamah in both the 1000 Guineas and Oaks tipped up in the thread. I am quite proud of how they are shaping up and can only hope that somewhere along the way someone got a nice winner out of it or gets one in the future.
There comes a time when you are not getting back out of something the time and effort you put into it and that time has come.
Some nice people here and a few good laughs on the way but too much negativity and personal criticism from people who just seem to live for offence that they can take.
Cheers folks and be lucky!!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Best wishes Steve, this place will be a lot poorer for your absence, hope you pop back soon mate. I know what you are saying but your input doesn’t go without notice, I’d made you favourite for the poster of the year as not only is your day to day betting and ante post betting and advice top notch you have a way with words and a sense of humour to boot. As for people taking offence to criticism of their heroes, I wouldn’t lose any sleep over it, we all have different opinions and if they don’t agree with mine it goes in one ear and back out the other, your opinion of course is one of a few exceptions.
Take care buddy.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I’m fairly knew to the forum and more of a reader than a poster. Sorry you are taking a break as the place will be even quieter without your views. ATB
Best wishes Steve, I’d made you favourite for the poster of the year
Take care buddy.
Really? Just shows how piss poor this forum has become then
Each to their own.
Who do you make fav, Mr .P?
I’ll have a friendly fiver with you that Steve gets more votes in the awards then your choice.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Each to their own.
Who do you make fav, Mr .P?
I’ll have a friendly fiver with you that Steve gets more votes in the awards then your choice.I’m not getting involved after last year’s fix!
And Steve’s not a bad guy but not really funny? As you say though, each to their own. He’s not a fan of Big Mac I remember that, and how can you not like/ be entertained by him? Takes all sorts
I could have said you Nathan as you should be in with a great chance this year, if the forum is still limping along till then
I should of had it a few years back Mr .P but forgot to vote for myself…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
If my new mate deaf Jon was a member, then he’d be in with a good shout – no pun intended – Anyone at the age of 78 with a handshake as firm as his must be a top man, Imo
Hope to see him again sometime… and not forgetting you of course Nathan 
Deaf Jon is incredible, he took quite a shine to Moehat at Cheltenham so that’s two votes already and he hasn’t made a post yet……
Yes, I’m sure we’ll meet up again, you can drive me to York on the 20th if you like, we’ll meet up with Drone you can drink the smooth and I’ll eat the black pudding.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
STEVE – Your contributions much appreciated by me and many others I am sure. Hope you don’t give up on the forum completely, you are more than welcome anytime.
I am winding this thread up and giving the forum a miss from now on.
It is quite time consuming making selections and writing them up and I am too lazy to keep tabs on how the thread has been performing.
There is little sense that what I am doing is of any interest or benefit to anyone and the forum in general is a lot quieter than I had anticipated it would be. There is also a lot less humour than there might be and far too many people taking offence at criticism of their, I am assuming, heroes.
We’ve had a few disappointments and a few good winners, some bad favs beaten and some bits of hard luck in the mix.
There is 12/1 Pallasator for The Ebor, 10/1 on Kingston Hill for The Leger, 14/1 Taghrooda for the Arc, 20/1 Ivawood for The 2000 Guineas, 25/1 Highland Reel for The Derby and 25/1 for Al Naamah in both the 1000 Guineas and Oaks tipped up in the thread. I am quite proud of how they are shaping up and can only hope that somewhere along the way someone got a nice winner out of it or gets one in the future.
There comes a time when you are not getting back out of something the time and effort you put into it and that time has come.
Some nice people here and a few good laughs on the way but too much negativity and personal criticism from people who just seem to live for offence that they can take.
Cheers folks and be lucky!!
Very much enjoyed your posts and our discussions over the years Steve/David, particularly your exceptional ante-post record.
Know the feeling, it does sometimes feel nobody is interested, but am sure in your case that is not the case.
There does seem a greater number of posters criticising for criticising sake and/or overly critical of those who criticise. Anyone introducing facts into a thread, expressing a strong opinion, trying to help a fellow TRFer, trying to keep these threads going or writing a DLAP thread… is somehow, solely, doing it for their "ego"…
Although it is sometimes easy to misjudge people’s motives, I have to agree, what’s the point of so much effort?
…And whatever happened to inteligent conversation? Now you’ve gone it’ll be even less! Although there are no doubt more good posters on here than sometimes seems the case.
At least you’ll have more time to yourself to keep that diabetis under control!
Hope you stay healthy David and please pop in from time to time. I need your input to keep me sane.
Mark
Value Is EverythingOh no; someone else going? Please change your mind [or is it too late?]. I’ll be talking to myself soon at this rate
Thank you to those who made kind comments.
Sadly I have big problems with my blood pressure now, as well as the diabetes. They have quadrupled my medication over the past few months but it hasn’t helped and I will now go onto times six or times eight if it is not any better next week.
My eyes are getting tested for further abnormal blood vessels next week as well, so I’ll find out if I’m in better shape than Treve shortly.
Be lucky people and have a good Ebor week.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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