Carvills lays and plays

[carvillshill]

Lay 1 pt Authorised, Manduro and Dylan Thomas Arc De Triomphe 9/2, 9/2 and 7/1 or less on Betfair.
History shows you need a fresh horse for the Arc. You also need a strong stayer, not a horse who can win over a mile as well as Manduro. The fact that Authorised and DT run this week at York rules them out for Paris for me. DT doesn’t like soft ground, another negative. He’s hard to lay today but there may be a knee-jerk reaction if he wins at York.
I like Soldier of Fortune if he’s committed to the race (fairly likely) and Andre Fabre’s Sageburg, who I’ll be backing before the trials.
Update 10p.m.
Trawling through the form here, Nick Mordin gives positive mention to the German horse Saddex. Have 1.5 pt win, .5 pt place at 33/1 with Betfred, given the weakness of the front few.
lost 11/10 +1 pt N.R. +1 pt won 11/2 (laid at 6/1 BF) -6pts, unpl 25/1 -2 pts.
Total loss 6 pts ( will be in October’s tally)

[carvillshill]

1 pt win Heron Bay 2.35 York 20/1 generally
Put in a good performance to win traditionally one of the season’s most competitive handicaps at Royal Ascot, then unsuited by Goodwood’s undulations and a slow pace next time, could be underestimated here.
Unpl -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

1pt win Dylan Thomas 3.10 York
See main forum for reasoning.
2nd -1pt.
August 2007
Staked 17.5 pts
Profit 3.25 pts
Profit on turnover 18.5%

[carvillshill]

2 pts win Lucarno St.Leger Doncaster Saturday, 9/2 generally.
Committed to the race this morning, I haven’t backed him yet (too busy to take the 5/1 early today) but will be sniffing around for 5/1 somewhere tomorrow or trying to back him with a run at shorter.
The premise for this bet is simple. Horses that have already run over the Leger trip or further have a terrible record on Town Moor- they include the favourite, Mahler, Regal Flush, Samuel and Veracity this year. Counterintuitively, the ones with stamina doubts tend to outclass the strong stayers and Lucarno has the classiest form in the book and can bely the overdone stamina fears of his excellent trainer. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start favourite on the day.
Won 7/2 +9 pts

Arc De Triomphe
In my original analysis I mentioned being keen on Andre Fabre’s 3yo Sageburg. After choking on my cornflakes one morning on seeing Pricewise tip him I was forced to back him averaging about 18/1 for about 2 points, but forgot to post on here. I think he’s still worth a point at the current 14/1.
N.R. -1pt (will be in October tally)

[carvillshill]

Ayr Gold Cup
Dandy Nicholls has a fabulous record here as do 4 year olds so it may be worth backing 2 likely candidates ante-post.
1pt win Dream Theme 33/1 Bet 365
Unpl 66/1 -1pt.
Not an obvious one having only one moderate run this year, but if Dandy can work his magic….
1.5 pts win Buachill Dona 20/1 Bet 365
Set to run in the Portland off a higher mark than here, I’m expecting a big run and some encouragement that he’ll stay 6f.
Unpl 20/1 -1pt.

[carvillshill]

Portland H’cap
1.5 pts win .5 pt place Fantasy Believer 9/1 Hills
Showed signs of coming back to form latest, will be rattling home over this trip off a previous winning mark.
Unpl 13/2 -2 pts

Irish St. Leger
1.5 pts each-way Scorpion 4/1 Paddy Power/Boyles NRNB
Looks the classic each-way bet to nothing and there may not be as much between him and Yeats as the market would have you believe. Wouldn’t be the first time Shamie Heffernan has collected on the supposed second string this year.
2nd 7/2 -0.2pt
3.20 Sandown
1 pt win Padlocked 6/1 on Betfair tonight, check prices tomorrow am
Won well at Salisbury latest, Godolphin and Cecil horses may be overbet.
2nd 5/1 -1pt

[carvillshill]

1 pt each-way Mist and Stone 3.30 Curragh 7/1
2nd 6/1 +.4pt
1 pt win Harry Up 4.20 Doncaster
4th 6/1 -1pt

[carvillshill]

1 pt each-way Campfire Glow 10/3 4.10 Curragh
Not many can be fancied here, overpriced.
Unpl 3/1 -2pts

[carvillshill]

I did Pricewise for today (emailed to Corm at 7pm last night) so I can’t be accused of following the RP in suggesting 1pt win Buachaill Dona 2.40 Doncaster, 9/1 still available Ladbrokes. For reasoning hopefully you can read the pricewise article, which I can’t find anywhere!
unpl 9/1 -1pt

[carvillshill]

3.40 Curragh
1 pt win Thoughtless Moment best morning odds
Very impressed with her scything run through a decent handicap field at Leopardstown latest- beware the improving filly in the Autumn! Needs to find a little to figure here but can bustle up some others exposed as average for this class.
Unpl 5/1 -1pt

[carvillshill]

If you got your Northern Rock money back have 2 pts win Royal County Star Kerry National Listowel.
Typical God plot, could win with a ton in hand. Best at 9/2 with Paddy P tonight, I’ll be hunting for 5/1 in the morning.
Slipped up 2 out, I reckon would have won…-2pts

[carvillshill]

Ayr Gold Cup Sat
1pt win Knot in Wood 8/1 available, maybe better tomorrow.
Unpl 7/1 -1pt.
1 pt win Benwilt Breeze 16/1
2nd btn nk. 22/1 -1pt.
The ground looked to have some cut on Thursday which will really suit Knot on Wood. he’s landed a fair draw and his rider’s 3lbs will help. Richard Fahey knows how to win this and has kept him fresh for the race.
Ger Lyons is almost worth backing blind with his UK raiders this year- the fancy prices are gone but 16/1 is still worth taking. He’s won on soft, good to soft will be fine.
Silver Cup Friday
1 pt win Utmost Respect best morning price (4/1 tonight)
Badly drawn in the middle, but may not matter, as he has the potential to outclass this field. Soft ground a bonus. If I get 5/1 tomorrow he’ll be a 2 point bet.
update 21/9
Sadly tipped up by Pricewise, so difficult to get on, but will go down as a 2 pt win bet at 6/1, which is what I averaged.
Won 11/4 +12 pts

[carvillshill]

Hand forced again by Pricewise, but at least we know this morning that this horse is an intended runner.
2 pts win Pipedreamer 10/1 available if you’re quick this morning, Tote Cambridgeshire HCap.
Hugely impressive latest, love this trainer in big hcaps.
Won 5/1 +20 pts.(counted in October results)

September
Staked 23.5
+5.7 pts
24% profit on turnover.

[carvillshill]

I’m sticking to racing on this thread to demonstrate long-term profitability so this doesn’t count, but I reckon Argentina are stone-bonking certainties to beat Ireland on Sunday in the Rugby World Cup. They are flying, while the mood in the Ireland camp is funereal- get on at 8/11 with Boyles! Hang patriotism, gimme the money!
Result Argentina 30 Ireland 15.

[carvillshill]

Cesarewitch 20 October
Might be worth backing two well-in horses now, before attention shifts to this race after Satuday week’s Cambridgeshire.
1.5 pt win .5 pt place Macorville 16/1 generally.
Ran a cracker in the Irish Leger, might be regarded as a fluke, but had looked progressive before that. Needs a bit of cut ideally, though the ground was fast in Ireland.
Unpl 7/1 -2 pts
1.5 pts win Samurai Way 10/1 generally
2nd to Regal Flush reads well after that one’s fourth in the Leger.
Unpl 6/1 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

4.50 Wolverhampton
1.5 pts each-way Fisher Bridge 5/1 generally available

A theiving each-way bet as it’s very hard to see him out of the first 3. The odds-on Tropical Strait looks a good thing after his 12 length maiden romp but he ran flat out that day (TS of 90) and there’s a chance he could bounce (only 8 days ago). Walter Swinburn’s 4yo has equal potential, runs well fresh and could just turn him over.
unpl 4/1 -3pts

[Gazs Way De Solzen]

Good luck with that.

I actually like Arsad EW in that race at a massive 25/1.

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