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2 pts win Tajaaweed Epsom Derby 7/1 generally.
One of those frustrating times when I’ve been chasing this horse’s price for the past week since I saw his Chester run and keep missing out- missed 10s, then 8s today but still think 7/1 is worth taking. Don’t fancy Casual Conquest to be suited by Epsom, Henry won’t stay and prefer this horse to Stoute’s other two. He reminds me very much of Kris Kin, winning the same trial in a very similar fashion.
unpl 10/1 -2 pts.1 pt each-way Alamiyan 7.20 Punchestown 16/1guaranteed Boyles, Bet 365.
Won well off 12lbs lower under similar conditions last October at Fairyhouse and was weak in the betting when not given a hard time at Cheltenham subsequently. I’m sure he has the ability to take a hand today, only question is if today’s the day, but 16/1 is too big to resist.
4th 5/1 +1 pt (R4 50p)1 pt win Crystal Gazer 4.45 Goodwood 4/1 guaranteed Bet 365
Goes well fresh, course winner.
unpl 7/1 -1 pt.1 pt win Bankable 3.35 Goodwood 2/1 Paddy Power
Very impressive on similar ground at Ascot, up in class but looked good enough to cope last time.
won 7/4 +2 pts.May results
Staked 20 pts
P/L +14.9 pts
Profit on turnover 75%.1.5 pt win, .5 pt place Michita Epsom Oaks 11/1 Totesport.
Won what used to be the Lupe well on another unconventional track and has fewer stamina doubts than most here. I want to be against Chinese White, who looked very green at Gowran Park and may struggle with the track. Lush Lashes was impressive at York but is not certain to stay.
unpl 8/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win .5 pt place Macarthur Coronation Cup best morning price (14/1 best tonight, 1/4 first 3)
I’m not convinced Getaway should be as short as he is here and Soldier of Fortune may need the run so his stable companion could spring a surprise under Shamie Heffernan- it wouldn’t be the first time!
3rd 12/1 +.75 pt.1 pt each-way Denis of Cork Belmont Stakes 10/1 Bet 365, Blue Square.
1pt each-way Casino Drive 3/1 generally, same race.
The history of the Belmont, last leg of the American Triple Crown, is littered with beaten favourites so Big Brown may not be the good thing he appears. Whether it’s the extra distance or the result of quick runs on an unforgiving surface, the form horse from the Kentucky Derby and Preakness doesn’t always deliver here, hence no triple crown winner since 1978. Denis Of Cork was a staying-on third in the Derby, looking sure to appreciate the extra 2 furlongs here.
Casino Drive comes from Japan and won the Peter Pan impressively, again looking sure to stay 12f.
2nd, NR -1 pt. (settled as Ante-post by Bet 365, others may differ)1 pt win Mull of Dubai 4.45 Epsom 11/1 generally
A big drifter this morning, but must have every chance of following up his Chester win here.
unpl 7/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Massini’s Best 4.10 Hexham 12/1 generally
Like this trainer’s raiders after improved pointing performances-weak race.
P 5/1 -1 pt.1 pt win Perfect Treasure 3.00 Brighton 5/1 Hills, Coral.
Good record around here in small fields, being fresh is no problem.
won 10/3 +5 pts.How did you lose on the Belmont Stakes – surely stakes back on Casino Drive while Denis of Cork was approx 7/1? Well done today as well.
1 pt win Icannshift 3.45 Folkestone 7/1 guaranteed Bet 365.
Good record around here at 12f and lack of any other obvious pace in the race is a bonus, can make all.
unpl 8/1 -1 pt.Weds 11th June
1 pt win Great War Eagle 7.30 Leopardstown 4/1 Paddy Power
David Wachman’s team are in great form and this horse ran well first time out on ground that wouldn’t have suited. Last year’s run behind Jupiter Pluvius would just about be good enough in this company as it doesn’t look the strongest of Group 3s.
2nd 5/1 -1 pt.
1/2 pt each-way Rock of Rochelle same race 22/1 Tote
A tight little race where nothing looks a 20/1 shot to me, worth a saver at those odds on ground that should suit.
unpl 14/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win Faith and Reason 5.10 Nottingham 10/1 guaranteed.
Taking a chance here, but this horse was once rated in the 80s and runs off 55 here. Barney’s often pop up after a break and 10s is hard to resist- expect the odds to collapse if it’s a trier.
5th 10/1 -1 pt.1 pt each-way Fathsta 3.25 York 10/1 guaranteed Bet 365, 10/1 Vic, Blue Sq.
Very consistent tough individual who could still be ahead of the handicapper after a good run at Epsom in a listed race. Didn’t look much in the draw here on Firday and looks sure to go well.
unpl 8/1 -2 pts.
1 pt each-way Inexile 3.40 Sandown 16/1 Blue Sq.
Don’t mind admitting I was influenced by Simon Hoiles’ thinking here- the far rail looks the place to be at Sandown and with the non-runner this horse will at worst be one off the rail early and should be able to grab it at some stage, after which the favourite will have to come around him to win. I think there’s an element of hype built into odds-on quotes for Corryborough too and the fact that racing’s most overrated pundit naps it increases confidence.
2nd 14/1 +2 pts.1.5 pts win Sageburg Queen Anne Stakes, Ascot tomorrow, 5/1 Tote.
according to our Aussie correspondent, Hardasun was a bit of a twicer down there so perhaps even APOB’s skills may not be enough to allow him to win this, though he is feared. I want to be against Tariq, who still has to prove that a mile suits better than 7f and surely Darjiina can’t reverse the form with the selection from the Prix d’Ispahan where he beat her easily. Sageburg was supplemented into this a few days ago by the same connections as the filly and can prove himself a genuine Group 1 miler here. Being by Johannesburg, faster ground is unlikely to be a problem.
unpl 15/2 -1.5 pts.
2 pts win She’s Supersonic 7.50 Ballinrobe, take first show with a guarantee.
Unlucky latest, loves fast ground, longer trip a plus.
unpl 9/2 -2 pts.Jersey Stakes
1 pt win, 1/2 pt place Aqlaam 10/1 generally
Like the way he won his maiden at Newbury, major scope for improvement on the bare form.Trainer’s Ascot record is good. Penalised runners have a poor record, so Jupiter Pluvius may struggle. Calming Influence is feared, but is no more than fairly priced.
won 13/2 +11.3 pts.
Prince of Wales
1 pt each-way Ask 8/1 Coral, Vic C, Blue Sq.
I’m not totally convinced by Duke of Marmalade who may well win but is not value at 6/4. This horse may be better over further but the same applies to the favourite and the presence of a pacemaker should ensure a fast-run race, which will suit the selection. He’s tough and reliable and a good bet to hit the frame, with every chance of pulling off an upset.
5th 7/1 – 2pts.
Royal Hunt Cup
1 pt each-way We’ll Come 8/1 Paddy Power 1/4 1,2,3,4,5.
This race revolves around Bankable, who is a stone well in but I’m a bit worried about the faster ground for him and it’s traditionally been hard to carrry over 9st in this race. Michael Jarvis is no stranger to big handicap winners and this fella ran a great trial over 7f in the Victoria Cup. Must have a great chance of being in the first 5 and every chance of upsetting the hotpot.
1/2 pt each-way Oceana Gold 33/1 Victor Chandler.
Could well be the Pricewise pick tomorrow as 33/1 is definitely too big. he has the thoretical beating of the favourite on last year’s form and the only reason he’s this price is a poor last run where the combination of the small field and dead ground may not have suited. Andrew Balding knows how to win big Ascot handicaps.
unpl 8/1, unpl 16/1 -3pts.Ribblesdale
1/2 pt each-way Arthur’s Girl best morning price (11/1 Bet 365 tonight)
there must still be a doubt if Michita gets 12f, for all that Epsom didn’t suit her. This filly won a maiden at Salisbury and needs to improve but her trainer is a master at Ascot and at a double-figure price she’s worth a bet.
2nd 7/1 (14/1 best morning price) +1.3 pts.
Britannia
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Throne of Power best morning price
1/2 pt each-way Yadree 20/1 Blue Sq 1/4 first 5.
I’m banking on the jockeys showing a bit more nous tomorrow and the high numbers staying where they are. I reckon P Robinson will anyway. If they do, these 2 have great chances.
unpl 14/1, 3rd 12/1 +.5 pts.
2 pt win Oscar Jo 4/1 8.10 Towcester
Bit last minute, hope you can get on!
P 10/3 -2pts.1 pt each-way Please Sing 2.30 Ascot best morning price (9/1 Tote tonight)
Won her maiden well and extra furlong will suit, nice each-way shape to the race with the short fav.
unpl 6/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Hinton Admiral 5.30 Ascot best morning price (25/1 Paddy Power first 5 tonight)
I think the high drawn horses are priced too big given how little was between the sides today- If Paul Hanagan can hold onto this fella till late he’s got every chance.
unpl 14/1 -1.5 pts.2 pts win Highland Legacy Nothumberland Plate 13/2 guaranteed.
The change in the ground to soft this evening will inconvenience many of the market leaders but not this one- he’s sure to shorten in the morning.
1 pt win, 1/2 pt place Far From Old same race, 12/1 guaranteed.
Another for whom the conditions will hold no fears and who promises to stay really well.
1/2 pt win Bollin Derek same race 40/1 generally
Loves mud, reappearance wasn’t bad.
unpl 4/1, unpl 10/1 , unpl 28/1 -4 pts.
2 pts win Utmost Respect 2.10 Newcastle best morning price (if 7/2 or better)
Serious tool on soft ground at this trip.
Morning edit- 3/1 best available, I’d make him a 1.5 pt bet at that price.
won 11/4 +4.5 pts.
2 pts win Promising Lead 3.45 Curragh 5/2 Ladbrokes
I’m still not convinced Finsceal Beo wants any more than a mile and she’s had a number of hard races since winning her classics- no doubt Jim Bolger will prove me wrong but I think she’s opposable tomorrow with Michael Stoute’s filly who stays every yard of this and has had a much easier time of it- I can see her having more toe up the straight than Finsceal.
won 2/1 +5 pts.
1 pt win Rising Shadow 2.45 Newcastle 6/1 available
Loves this track and to get his toe in, can’t see Valery Borzov reversing the placings today under these conditions.
unpl 9/2 – 1pt.
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