Can you help me with a staking plan….I’m a little confused

[onefurlongout]

Hi i wondered if anyone could help me out. Sorry if this is long and boring just want some advice as the mrs aint any help.

I’m currently trailing a system where the aim is to obtain a return of £100 per race. usually this will involve betting on a number of horses to obtain this amount for instance:

In a 7 horse races the odds are

Horse 1 – 4/1
2 – 4/1
3 – 4/1
4 – 9/1
5 – 3/1
6 – 8/10
7 – 25/1

I decide to bet on horse 1, 2, 5 and 7. To obtain the £100 return I will need to place the following amounts

Horse 1 – £20 @ 4/1 = £80 + stake = £100
Horse 2 – The same
Horse 5 – £25 @ 3/1
Horse 7 – £3.85 @ 25

The total bet is £68.85 but if one of them wins I get £100 returned (extra £31.15) but if none of them win then I’m down by £68.85.

In this instance not one of the above horses won and now I find myself £68.85 down. So in the next race I want to try and make back my loss whilst at the same time earn a return of £100.

The next race is a 12 runner affair but i only want to be on horses, 1 and 2. The odds on both are 9/4 so to return £100 then I need to place a bet of £61.54 (2x £30.77). This will give me a profit of £38.46. In order to make back my previous loss I’d need to put on a further £21.18 on each horse. Thus as horse one won Id be better off to the tune of £116.89 + Stake = £168.85.

Hope this make sense but I’m a bit stuck (or thick) as it would seem that Ive only made a profit of £168.85 – £103.90 = £64.95. This includes the £38.46 from the race plus an extra £26.49, but shouldnt this £26.49 be nearer to the loss of £68.85.

If both races were winners I’d have £200 returned with a £31.15 profit from race 1 and £38.46 from race 2. Total bet was £130.39

Should i include the attempted £100 return from race 1 thus making the aim in race 2 £268.85 and not £168.85.

I’m probably missing something really simple or is it that the different odds used in race 2 mean that you will get a different result.

Thanks for any advice or abuse in advance

[davidbrady]

I’m a bit lost to be honest but I’ll do my best

The problem here (I think) is that you are confusing winning back your 1st-race stake money of £68.85 and getting back your stake money of £68.85.

Ignoring the £100 return which you originally set out to acgieve, lets say you are down £68.85 from the first race and want to win that back by backing 2 x 9/4 shots in the 2nd race. You would actually have to stake £55.08 on EACH horse to win £68.85 from the race:

Horse A wins – £55.08 @ 9/4 – PROFIT of £123.93
Horse B loses – LOSS of £55.08
Overall profit of £68.85

The way you have worked it is that you can only win £26.48 by staking the £21.18 on each horse in Race 2.

Hope this helps

[Monster]

Hi Onefurlongout

If you are trying claw back losses with Dutch Betting your stakes will rise very quickly. Also your profit on each dutch bet will vary on the number of selections and odds.

One method would be to set a standard profit of say £50.

Return a profit of £50.00
4/1 = satke £32.10
4/1 = £32.10
3/1 = £40.12
25/1 = £6.17

Total loss £110.49

If the first bet loses you now need to retrieve £110.49 Plus your £50 profit from that bet.

Next bet would be

9/4 = £168.39
9/4 =£168.39

If successful would return you lossess from the first bet plus £50 profit and £50 profit for the second bet.

Having said that you would have laid out £447.27 to make a profit of £100 you are betting odds of 2/9

Personally if I were ever to use a Staking plan to retrieve losses I would want around 50% strike rate and even then according to Timeform you can expect a losing run of 10 consecutive bets after 2048 bets

If its a system then the fewer filters the better
Example
Sir Mark Prescott/Seb Sanders in Handicaps & Stakes 8f or more in June & July

41/81 Strike rate = 50% and Average winning SP 2/1

Last 50 runs

120243113-101111111-0650-110322111121111332-2152101005

Good Luck

Monster

[dave jay]

onefurlongtogo .. I have come across this staking plan before .. it was called ‘The Iwantotlosemyhouseandliveinacardboardbox Plan’ .. Monster explains it quite well, although the use of the words ‘very quickly’ could be replaced by ‘at an insanely astronomical rate’.

[quadrilla]

2007 – 7 wins from 26 runs – 26.9 %

horse name,sp,position,prize money 1,race date,race distance,handicap races,trainer name,jockey name,course name
Secret Liaison,3/1,5,£4858,05/06/2007,1m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,SOUTHWELL (A.W)
Alleviate,3/1,8,£2048,06/06/2007,1m 3f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD
Tilapia,6/1,3,£4728,06/06/2007,1m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,KEMPTON (A.W)
Copernican,13/8,1,£2389,07/06/2007,1m 3f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,HAMILTON
Algarade,8/13,2,£6477,09/06/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,WINDSOR
My Mentor,15/2,2,£2048,09/06/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD (A.W)
Alambic,11/8,2,£5182,11/06/2007,2m 1f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,PONTEFRACT
Copernican,4/9,1,£2850,13/06/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,BRIGHTON
Sagredo,9/2,6,£4728,13/06/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,KEMPTON (A.W)
Wicked Daze,3/1,2,£2817,16/06/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD (A.W)
My Mentor,9/2,1,£2048,16/06/2007,1m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD (A.W)
Ballet Boy,7/2,1,£3239,18/06/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,WINDSOR
Algarade,6/1,5,£9971,27/06/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,SALISBURY
Soft Morning,5/1,1,£7772,07/07/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,SANDOWN
Western Point,13/8,2,£3071,12/07/2007,1m 2f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD (A.W)
Crossing The Line,2/1,P,£3239,12/07/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,FOLKESTONE
Alambic,Evens,5,£7772,13/07/2007,1m 5f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,HAMILTON
Artless,13/8,1,£3886,16/07/2007,1m 5f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,AYR
My Mentor,11/2,8,£3239,17/07/2007,1m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,KEMPTON (A.W)
Alleviate,4/1,8,£2048,17/07/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,KEMPTON (A.W)
Red Petal,6/1,7,£2817,18/07/2007,2m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD
Sangfroid,9/2,7,£2591,23/07/2007,2m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,BEVERLEY
Tonnante,11/1,3,£1943,24/07/2007,1m 3f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,YARMOUTH
Hazy Days,5/1,1,£2817,25/07/2007,1m 3f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,LINGFIELD
Western Point,5/1,5,£2389,26/07/2007,1m 4f,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,FOLKESTONE
Caravel,5/2,2,£2817,29/07/2007,1m,True,Sir Mark Prescott,Seb Sanders,CARLISLE

[Monster]

Hi Sorry

I was not very clear the data was for Turf Handicaps & Stakes 8f or greater.

If you want to be ultra selective then by adding Sire Pareto & Colt will improve the Strike rate.

Sire Pareto & Colt 17/21 Strike rate 81%

11-1111-1-1-30431-1111111/1

The full list for both sets of criteria (Warts & All) are at the google link below

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= … VZcMIs5rBA

From a Personal point of view I have many alerts set up to remind me that certain runners are worth studying further.

Good Luck

Monster

[Matron]

If any system is not making a level stake profit then, do not bother with it.

A staking plan can certainly enhance profits though.

With "dutching", you can make profits and there is the appropriate software that will help on the market that will calculate your stakes for you and return an equal profit for each selection: obviously, you must have a sound selection process though. It is no good picking on the front four in the market in each race for instance, as you will come unstuck.

Regards – Matron

[Monster]

Hi Onefurlong

This is not something that I do but have you thought about Dutching in the Place Market. Obviously some markets will not be stong enough to get matched.

An example Only (I did not back at all in this race)

Yesterday 3.55 Ripon

6 Runners and two places paid.

Cobo Bay 4.80 BF Place Odds (£759 amount Matched) Stake £21.93
Upton Grey 3.75 BF Place Odds (£714 amount matched) Stake £28.07)
Total Stake =£50.00
Income £55.26 ROI 110.53%

(The Odds were available in the last hour of beting)

As I have said before I did not bet in this race but it explains the potential that if one wins you make a profit, no different to the Win Dutch bets, but the advantage is that if two place you get double the income. The better class handicaps are probably the ones to concentrate on as the win and place prize money will encourage owners & Trainers to at least try for a place.

There are Free Dutch bet calculators on the market.

Good Luck

Monster

[onefurlongout]

cheers for the advice guys the dutching is proving to be successful but it is let down by the odd one or two races.

Dutching the place market sounds interesting.

Im just after a way to reduce the loss from the races where there isnt a winner

[davidbrady]

Im just after a way to reduce the loss from the races where there isnt a winner

Aren’t we all?!!!

[Author]

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