Can anyone test this theory?

[mulls74]

I have been talking to someone who specialises in sprints and he’s convinced that weight carried has little effect in these races other than forcing horses to step up in class until they find their class ceiling.
Essentially, he focuses on horses at the top of the weights in sprint handicaps and then looks at draw, suitability of going etc.
It would be a big help to see if there is anything in this theory by maybe running a query in RI or some other suitable software based on the strike-rates of top weights in 5f and 6f races compared to longer distances. This would at least give an indication as to whether he’s on to something.
Any help would be appreciated.

[Wallace]

The stats taking races over the last ten years as follows;

Turf, 5f & 6f, top weight, handicaps only.
6073 races
683 winners
SR 11.23%

All turf races, top weight handicap races, more than 6f
17,162 races
2072 winners
SR 12.07%

Back to the drawing board for this one!

[mulls74]

Thanks, that’s very useful – if not profitable!

[Author]

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