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Interesting that PPower go just 7/2 about this filly in the 2.25 Curragh, tomorrow, when 13/2 is available elsewhere. When last seen in July she ran her best race by far – around 20 lbs improvement on previous RPRs. Worth a point each way.
Interesting that PPower go just 7/2 about this filly in the 2.25 Curragh, tomorrow, when 13/2 is available elsewhere. When last seen in July she ran her best race by far – around 20 lbs improvement on previous RPRs. Worth a point each way.
I see Byzantium drifted to an SP of 12/1 Joe. You make the point of it not seen since July…
Looking at lowest and biggest Eearly Prices can pay Joe. I devised a system with Early Odds using bookmakers odds compilers as advisors; telling me who a particular compiler thinks is value. eg If Bookie A offers 4/1 and Bookie B offers 11/2, then compiler A must rate 11/2 a good bet (gap between 4/1 and 11/2 is larger than the biggest of mark ups). If I didn’t have Timeform this would be the way I’d bet.
However, with “after a break” horses – there were quite a few occasions where it was evident “someone somewhere knew something”, that someone being a bookie. Sometimes it was something good which meant the bigger odds were worth taking; but most often something bad. The latter happened far more often – and became obvious not worth getting involved – when the horse was reappearing after a break (not including early months for “first run of the season”).
Value Is Everything
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