Bumper Winners defying penalties

[ivanjica]

On ATR’s on the line Matt Chapman just made the point that when Phil Smith was recently on he said that contrary to popular belief, statistically horse that win a bumper do generally go on to win another won.

I must admit I always thought backing penalised bumper winners was a route to the poor horse so I was wondering do any of the foroumites have access to a database to show the stats for this and also what the %PL is for backing such horses?

[Seasider]

David Lawrence posted a blog entry on the attheraces website on 6 January this year.

In that entry he discusses the next-time-out chances of Mystical Knight and Tearsofclewbay, two previous bumper winners with penalties to carry. He prefaces his remarks by saying:

I am usually reluctant to suggest bumper winners will follow up under a penalty, as statistics illustrate it is no easy task.

Maybe Lawrence would share his source with you if you wrote to him.

(Mystical Knight’s connections gave bumpers a swerve when next running him in a £10,000 novices’ hurdle at Warwick on 13 February. The horse finished second to a Willie Mullins hotpot. Tearsofclewbay followed up with a 5/1 victory at Ascot in a £7,000 bumper a couple of weeks ago.)

[ivanjica]

Thanks Seasider, I will do that and if he responds share them here. I must admit I was very surprised what Chappers said Phil Smith had said, but obviously not having the stats available who am I to argue. Although my gut instinct from betting over the years is that such runners have cost me a lot over the years to the extent I exclude them from calculations now.

[Dex]

They talk about it in this video amongst other things.

[ivanjica]

Thanks Dex. So that’s 2-1 in favour of the “penalised runners actually do better than people think” theorists.

I checked out David Lawrence on ATR and dropped him a line. I guess if anyone on here has Raceform Interactive or Proform or something similar we could finally put the lie to the myth.

Also, I don’t recall James Willoughby being on ATR, I thought he was RUK through and through. How did he come to be on ATR?

[ivanjica]

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