Home › Forums › Horse Racing › Bubbles starting to burst today
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February 14, 2015 at 16:15 #750597
A G1 novice in a G1 race against older horses -> fell
Virak beaten 12 lenghts today by a Cheltenham bypasser and he couldn’t get past Deputy Dan who blundered badly 4 out and still regained 2nd place.
So the price Coneygree is right now (around 14-1) looks rather slim in my opinion.Irving also a 1000-1 shot for the Champion Hurdle after today’s dismal display.
At Fisher’s Cross another one to be retired.
Ballycasey another Ryanair dark horse gone….And don’t forget that there still a long way to go until Cheltenham. A very long way, let’s see what happens next!
February 14, 2015 at 16:51 #750927Fail to see why Virak (giving away 7lbs) and getting 30 lengths closer than he did to Coneygree bursts Coneygree’s bubble?
At Fishers Cross proved his consistency…in jumping poorly and being bitterly disappointing..
Ptit Zig falling wouldn’t mean he’s no chance at Cheltenham for me….Vautour has already lost a race through poor jumping this season, and Un De Sceaux has fallen…their bubbles aren’t burst though…
Ballycasey….well just another Willie Mullins chaser…joins the long list of looking good in Ireland, come over here beat out of sight…what’s his record read now for chasers over here the last 5 years? Doesn’t stop people falling over themselves to hype them up and back them though…
February 14, 2015 at 17:44 #750933Tea for two beaten
Fletchers Flyer beaten
Teaforthree beatenSone Cheltenham aspirations dented there.
February 14, 2015 at 17:53 #750934There’s not much to suggest Ptit Zig’s bubble has burst, he was going as well as any when he just completely miss-timed his leap. That’s his first fall and bookies nudging him out in the betting back in Novice company may be a bit premature.
At Fisher’s Cross was an accident waiting to happen. I have said for a long time that he’s gone at the game.
A horse beaten as far as Virak was by Coneygree, was always going to be a risky proposition to back at the odds he was today, with the mugs scrambling to get on at any price after the hype following the possible Gold Cup runner’s win last Saturday. I don’t see it damaging Coneygree’s form in the circumstances.
Bigger disappointments today were Tea For Two and Teaforthree who were both well odds on and completed a nice beverage based double for the bookies as they went to pot and were completely off the boil today. I suspect anyone who backed the pair were not on their leaf alone and had to watch the money go into the bookies bag. I’m not here to stir up trouble but think I’ll cancel my subscription to the internet betting service PG’s Tips.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
February 14, 2015 at 18:02 #750935Ballycasey….well just another Willie Mullins chaser…joins the long list of looking good in Ireland, come over here beat out of sight…what’s his record read now for chasers over here the last 5 years? Doesn’t stop people falling over themselves to hype them up and back them though…
To be fair it was probably a slight improvement on his last run, which was pathetic.
I’ve no problem forgiving a horse one poor run but with two next to his name now there are major question marks over him.
Ptit Zig just met one wrong, as others have said. Sam wanted him to go long, he wanted to go short, Sam was right. He could actually learn a lot from it, and he had been jumping well before the error.
February 14, 2015 at 21:32 #750965Tea for two beaten
Fletchers Flyer beaten
Teaforthree beatenSone Cheltenham aspirations dented there.
Teaforthree had to be placed today I think to even qualify to run in the Foxhunters
February 14, 2015 at 21:40 #750967Ballycasey….well just another Willie Mullins chaser…joins the long list of looking good in Ireland, come over here beat out of sight…what’s his record read now for chasers over here the last 5 years? Doesn’t stop people falling over themselves to hype them up and back them though…
To be fair it was probably a slight improvement on his last run, which was pathetic.
Ptit Zig just met one wrong, as others have said. Sam wanted him to go long, he wanted to go short, Sam was right. He could actually learn a lot from it, and he had been jumping well before the error.
It didn’t look the most positive piece of riding you will ever see. Contrast what looked a half-hearted signal to Geraghty on Caroles Destrier who despite several less than perfect jumps was still willing to throw his mount at several fences. Some might prefer a quieter style but if you don’t clear the fences you win nothing.
February 15, 2015 at 07:56 #750980AP said before the race yesterday that At Fisher Cross had a physical problem, the shapes he made in the air as he jumped the obstacles seemed to confirm that horse was contorting himself to avoid pain or discomfort. If they can’t find what it is he deserves a permanent holiday at Martinstown.
February 15, 2015 at 08:07 #750981Thought it was poor decision to run Teaforthree so quickly after his previous race, they still had 10 days to play with and he had come back from a bad injury. Can still run him in the National though.
Tea for Two will always be at a disadvantage with the jockey unable to claim in non handicaps, would have won yesterday with it but still a poor effort.
I would have thought At Fishers Cross would have been tried over fences by now, maybe there’s a reason why they haven’t
February 15, 2015 at 11:25 #750996Regarding T43 the 10k bonus for winning the Haydock race and then going on to win at Cheltenham probably influenced their decision.
February 15, 2015 at 21:14 #751074The Curtis horses had seemed to be running unusually well of late after a dire period but all ran poorly yesterday
February 16, 2015 at 07:18 #751100Add Gilgamboa to that list too.
February 16, 2015 at 07:31 #751104Regarding T43 the 10k bonus for winning the Haydock race and then going on to win at Cheltenham probably influenced their decision.
That’s probably true Nenni, plus the 6 grand plus for the Haydock race. Still a poor show from them for such a grand servant who owes them nothing and they would have still got a decent pot anyway if winning at Cheltenham
February 16, 2015 at 09:32 #751114Add Gilgamboa to that list too.
He’s been Un De Sceaux’d
February 16, 2015 at 14:21 #751145T43’s run just 8 days after reappearance, bounced.
It’s probably done his Grand National prospects no harm. Hopefully will go straight to Aintree now. Don’t write him off.Value Is EverythingFebruary 16, 2015 at 14:30 #751146Ballycasey was going to be the Ricci/Mullins runner in the Ryanair. His poor showing puts the race Champagne Fever will go for under question. If Djackadam goes for the Gold Cup there’s a chance Champagne Fever ends up in the Ryanair. Although may be the most likely is Boston Bob dropping to the intermediate distance (been backed today at big odds).
Value Is EverythingFebruary 18, 2015 at 11:53 #751316The Curtis horses had seemed to be running unusually well of late after a dire period but all ran poorly yesterday
I find the Curtis stable extremely hard to fathom. They have made an art out of being beaten with short priced favourites at places like Ffos Las.
I also found it odd that out of the blue McManus started sending horses to her. I know Costelloe is in the background so I presume that has something to do with it. A "bookie friendly" yard I would say.
Emma Lavelle is another one. "Pretty" public face with a hard nosed horse trader in Barry Fenton behind the scenes. Once again a yard capable of some very unpredictable results.
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