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Only nine left in the Classic…fast tight track…GW must have a chance if they have him right.
Think the US Classic horses are much of a muchness this year.
I would have given Discreet cat another go at the distance, as something clearly amiss in Dubai. If they thought he would get 1m2 in March, and he had a valid excuse, why wouldn’t they enter him in the Classic? Hmm.
i would give GW an excellent chance. he has had a bit of a break and i doubt o’brien would send him to US if he wasnt right. are these lists final because the odds havent been reflected on this yet…
Those horses are correct although these lists don’t mention the horses which haven’t made the cut yet ie:
Juvenile Turf
1st res Shore Do
2nd res Your Round
3rd res Globetrotter
4th res Annie Skates
5th res Moral Compass
6th res Cowboy Cal
7th res Why Tonto
8th res Horse Doctor
9th res Cannonball
10th res Overextended
11th res AustintatiousJuvenile Fillies
1st res Annie Skates
2nd res Joffe’s RunJuvenile
1st res Globalization
2nd res OverextendedSprint
1st res ForefathersMile
1st res Host
2nd res Lewis Michael
3rd res Rebellion
4th res RabatashDistaff
1st res Prop Me UpAlthough some of these horses will draw in if trainers stick to their stated preferences.
However it should be noted they the preferences are only cosmetic because they could switch.
Final fields, jockeys and draw will be announced on Tuesday.
Classic field lacks the quality of last year’s renewal, but I certainly wouldn’t be calling it a weak renewal either.
George Washington certainly has a right chance and I wouldn’t doubt his ability to act on dirt given the way he travelled for much of the race last year… still not convinced he stays ten furlongs though…
I wouldn’t say GW is a complete no-hoper in the Classic, but I can’t believe connections are going for the same race again. Last year he got a good trip and was ridden to perfection to close off of the fractions set . One problem : he just wasn’t good enough. Whether or not the surface was to blame I don’t know . Perhaps the Mile (turf) would have suited him better.
And please don’t fool yourself that those at the head of the market aren’t going to take plenty of beating ; imho, that is where the winner will come from.
I’m sure i read that GW has strengthened up further this year according to AOB, which is logical with another Winter on his back thus making the distance less of a problem. I get the impression this race was the plan from day 1. I nearly backed him at 16s, I think he might end up single figure odds come race day
The track itself is much less testing than the dirt track that was at Churchill Downs and O’Brien seems to be very happy with him. The top of the market is dominated by 3 year olds which in the last ten years have only won 2 out of the ten runnings of the race.
Certainly is a tough challenge for George and a placing would be a massive result in itself….but he has shown that he handles the surface, sharpness of the track should suit (reportidly should ride like a 1m1f race), will be fresh and well and the kick back should be at a minimum given the small size of the field….well deserves to take his chance particularly as they have Excellent Art in the mile race.
Aidan, would George relish a tight track?
I’m prepared ti accept that it might ride like a 9f. trip but will he cope with tight turns?
Colin
There is a lot of discussion about the Monmouth Park configuration. I was there in August and it is very similar in layout to Santa Anita.
The dirt course is 8 furlongs round and the turf course is 7 furlongs – same as Santa Anita.
On the dirt course the distance from the final turn to the finish line is 990 feet, exactly the same as Santa Anita.
On the turf course the distance from the final turn to the finish line is 985 feet whilst it is 987 feet at Santa Anita.
As a comparion Churchill Downs – host to last year’s event – is also 8 furlongs round (with a 7 furlong turf course) so not much difference. However the distance from the final turn to the finish line on the dirt is 1235 feet at Churchill.
Against Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday and Street Sense
Different track, but a similar result to last year for GW imo
Empty Wallet hit the nail on the head. I rate the depth of this year’s field stronger than last year’s. Last year had Invasor who was definitely a load but past that I dont think any horse from last year would have a chance of filling a place and that includes Bernardini. As for two 3yo’s winning in the last ten years how many of the top tier were actually running in October. This year the cream of the crop of American 3yo’s is at the start and they are a formidable battle tested bunch. I expect these "warriors" to treat GW like the boy he is. GW will struggle to get out of the last three imo. Absolutely no chance to fill a place. I’ll place lay him till the cows come home.
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