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I’m sort of kicking myself for not backing him earlier, but I’ve decided to bet City of Troy at a skinny 3-1
A fast starter in Europe compared to an average starter (let alone a fast starter) in the US is night and day. Over here they train their horses to ot play up in the stalls where over there they also train them to be fast out of them.
It could potentially be Ryan’s greatest feat as a jockey if he can get COT out of the stalls first and grab the lead. Their plan is then to let him roll along on the front but but when he likely misses the break, it will be kickback city and they might know their fate very early on if that happens.
He’s an “alpha male” apparently:
Aidan’s horse is a “leader”. Aidan’s horse is mucho big boss horse. Draw no problem, your American kickback no problem. Aidan boss horse win race, get all your fillies pregnant, yes.
Nothing against the horse but City Of Troy has been hyped to the heavens for this, so much so that I’m almost hoping he’s well beaten.
Both Coolmore and the media go on about him likes he’s some wonder horse near Frankels level. What has he done this season to warrant that hype? He’s a damn good horse but I’ve seen plenty others just as good. He’s not a once in a lifetime talent like Frankel, Shergar, Ruffian, Secretariat etc.I’m a fan of Forever Young and got 13/2 on him. I would’ve backed him before his prep race but didn’t hear about it until after he’d run.
I think it depends on the start. If he gets away well and is just off the leader after a couple of furlongs, then he has a good chance. Assuming he handles the dirt, the race is very winnable, and the fact that he stays 12f well means if he’s bang there at the furling pole and hasn’t had too much kickback he will be strong at the finish. I’ve a feeling it will be another close but no cigar day. Could have done with a grade 2 run on the dirt before the race. I’m on hols a few hours after the race but will watch it before getting a few hours sleep before a very early flight. The joys.
Wouldn’t touch the price he is now and has been the last 2 months. I’m not an ante-poster but I did have a bet on the 1st July when he was 10/1. He obviously burned a few fingers for punters on Guineas day and I get the feeling there’s a fair few who haven’t forgiven that but he has been pretty special lets be honest. Comparisons don’t need to be made, just appreciate what’s in front of you, leave all that waffle to the wafflers. I’m waffling now, good luck to him, not sure what to expect, just looking forward to the real curtain closer of the flat season.
Already placed a few for Friday’s card but Saturday at the moment could be iffy with the potential for a lot of rain. Typical.Seriously. Is there meant to be a lot of rain. Thought del mar was usually dry this time of year. Agree Fridays card looks easier to find winners.
Forecast looking much better now, there were some forecasts of 15-25mm, most of it late afternoon/evening. Now that seems to have cooled to just a passing shower in the afternoon.
If the rain does come, that’d probably ruin City Of Troy’s chances.
I couldn’t see him getting through the mud.Rain soften ground was put down as the excuse for the laboured performance in the Eclipse – hard enough to deal with dirt for the first time but if that dirt then turns sloppy with rain then I think you could kiss goodbye any chance he would have.
Was listening to an interesting American podcast earlier where one of the guys was comparing City of Troy pedigree wise to the others that AOB has run on the dirt.
Basically how they’ve either been dirt sire on top of dirt dam (ie Mendelssohn) or turf sire on dirt dam (ie Gleneagles) but not yet (I think) dirt sire, in this case, Justify, on top of turf dam Together Forever.
Just adds to the ??????.Some turf horses do better on wet dirt tracks because it slows the pace of the race. If they seal the track beforehand (basically compacting it so the water doesn’t soak through to the lower layer) though it’ll play more like a fast course. They’ll probably make that decision late tomorrow depending on forecast.
Looks like might be light rain around 7 pm the an hour before the race. All set for a great spectacle. He can win it but needs that wee bit of luck at the break.
I watched a few of the previous Classics last night again and I’m starting to thing COT could actually pull this off.
Some turf horses who’ve ran big races :
Giants Causeway
So You Think
Declaration Of War
Sakhee
Twice OverI don’t include the Ravens Pass win as it was on a different surface and I don’t think the Americans will ever risk that again.
Obviously being out of Justified is a help. It’s how full of running COT usually is at the end of his races which really catches the eye though. So many others who’ve attempted this feat have finished absolutely knackered. The fact that COT stays much further than 1m2f will stand him in good stead tonight imo.
Obviously he won’t be at his best on a surface he’s not trained on but he might just be good enough to pull it off.
Had to have a bet on FOREVER YOUNG at 5/1. They’ve kept this horse fresh for this event with only one run (comfortable win) since placed in the Kentucky Derby. With all the chitty chatter about COT the Japanese have been slightly undertalked and I can see this being the big story. KonichiWAH!
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