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Maybe I too am missing something here. Surely "good things" are offered at more prohibitive odds. Zenyatta is freely available to back at 7/2 and 4/1 with most British and Irish bookmakers. Either they are naively taking one huge risk or, as I suspect, they take the more sobering and realistic view; i.e. that she is up against it and will lose !
Out of curiosity, how well have those bookmakers predicted the results of past Breeders Cup Classics?
Those of you who say that Zenyatta can’t be named as one of the greatest racehorses ever are seriously underestimated how difficult it is to remain undefeated after so many races. The only horse with more wins and no losses is Kincsem. Even if she were a claimer, this would be an amazing feat, but she’s running in G1s.
The facts, as they stand right now:-A world record 9 G1 wins in a row
-13 G1s in total ties her with Spectacular Bid, Sunline, and Tie the Knot. 14 G1s would tie her with Forego and Kingston Town, and put her just below John Henry on the all-time list.
-3 perfect seasons
-When she is named Champion Older Mare a third time this year, only Azeri will match her.
-Highest earnings by any American female Thoroughbred.
-First female to win the BC Classic
-First horse to win two different BC races
-First horse to win the Vanity Handicap, Clement L. Hirsh Handicap, and Lady’s Secret Stakes 3 years in a row
-Has beaten 88 horses total; 20 G1 winners, 14 G2 winners, 6 G3 winners, 13 listed stake winners, and 5 restricted stake winners. Among the defeated are Champion Older Marewinner Ginger Punch, Champion Turf Male/Champion Older Horse Gio Ponti, Champion 3yo Male Summer Bird, Canadian Horse of the Year/Champion 3yo Filly/Champion Female Turf Horse Sealy Hill, Twice Over, Einstein, Rip van Winkle, Music Note, Hystericalady, etc. If she wins the BC Classic we will have to add Quality Road, Blame, Espoir City, Lookin at Lucky, Haynesfield, and Paddy O’Prado to that list.
-Has earned morepositive
media coverage in the USA than any racehorse, certainly any older horse or any mare, in the past 20 years. Has singlehoofedly increased the public’s interest in the sport in a way no other recent racehorse has.
So yes, I’d have to rank Zenyatta among the all-time greats, even if she were to retire today. Winning another Classic just cements her place in history. I’d go so far as to say that if you can’t at least appreciate her, you aren’t a true fan of horse racing. She is what perfection looks like.
Miss Woodford, having backed the "great" Zenyatta in last year’s Breeder’s Cup, I can assure you that I do appreciate her. She is, if I may be allowed to use a phrase more common on your side of the pond, a mighty fine specimen.
However, like Michael Dickinson, I happen to think that she has been over-hyped and a tad over-rated.
Her stiffest test to date awaits on Saturday. If she wins, I will consume as much humble pie as you can throw my way.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Ladbrokes might be going 4/1 but they still make it favourite. Besides if for arguement sake they went 1/4 you’re be saying NO VALUE there.
Price should not be a factor how she would run, its only a factor for the punters.
She has never had the hardest schedule, even for an American horse. In the USA there are G1s everywhere and rarely more than one or two G1 winning horses in most of them. Sometimes she doesn’t beat any G1 winners in her races.
The Ladies’ Classic and the two Classics (after this year’s BC) are her top class races. Yes, she’s won her other 17 races but this is a fact. Goldikova takes on tougher opposition every year. You know how we’ve dissected the form of Goldikova, Sea The Stars, and Miesque by looking at the G1 winners they’ve beaten in their races and the G1s those horses have won since? There aren’t many races you can do that to with Zenyatta. I can go on. In most races Zenyatta is long odds-on with one "sort of" live danger (think Goldikova vs. Music Show this year), she’ll have raced against the boys twice, look at Secretariat’s career, etc.
Being unbeaten is just one part of the equation so you can’t call her one of the great horses off that alone; you need to face good competition too. I don’t see anyone calling Peppers’ Pride one of the best of all time.
I think she’s a great horse who will win the Classic again, but I’m just being objective here.
Ladbrokes might be going 4/1 but they still make it favourite. Besides if for arguement sake they went 1/4 you’re be saying NO VALUE there.
Price should not be a factor how she would run, its only a factor for the punters.
Yes, and it is a factor that concerns some of us. Why is she still 7/2 with Ladbrokes?!?!?!!
She’s 3/1 pretty much across the board bar Laddies.
I do think she will win because she is a class apart and the track/surface should suit, the opposition doesn’t appear to be frightening, but my knowledge of yank form can be deposited on a postage stamp.
I guess it’ll either be one of those: "Wow, she was an amazing price – can’t believe I didn’t back her with ever penny I had (if she wins)" or "The bookies knew something! (if she goes down the crapper).
Zip
Ladbrokes have been out to get the favorites of all the races in the Breeders Cup this year. They were (probably still are) top price on Goldikova and Midday too
Zenyatta could always put in a poor run this time (which win or lose I hope doesn’t happen)
This doesn’t detract from the fact that she remains undefeated until this run at the highest level of the game, including 2 breeder cup victories.
As for the bookmakers opinion they have made mistakes before & if one was doing the same over here I bet they would offer much shorter odds.
Zenyatta appeals to me first as a horse,a horse who loves children, adults, food and drink second as a racehorse,she loves to win, and thirdly as a great communicator,she dances for her admirers,she entertains them, she transmits happiness.She is so much more than a horse.She is gentle,kind and patient ,tolerant of everyone,she particularly loves children.In some way she reminds me of Mohamed Ali.People pray to statues, to walls and to whatever, but once you see her prance you know why people make gods out of animals.There is so much to learn from her.If God became man why not a horse?
She is sent from God. She is His filly. I think He wanted a horse, made her and brought her down here to race.
~Mike SmithAnother great video:
Looking At Lucky has been drawn in the coffin box. 12 (
) , whereas main rivals, Blame (5) and Zenyatta (8) have struck gold, draw wise. Quality Road, the speed horse, is drawn 1. Zenyatta and her followers can surely have no excuses from that berth.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Looking At Lucky has been drawn in the coffin box. 12 (
) , whereas main rivals, Blame (5) and Zenyatta (8) have struck gold, draw wise. Quality Road, the speed horse, is drawn 1. Zenyatta and her followers can surely have no excuses from that berth.
Its not like Zenyatta will be looking for a nice position…she always drops right out. 12 wouldn’t have made a difference to her but its good that LAL got a poor draw
Oh Dear . I think the thing these days has of interest for me–Is The wonder Horse–(btw) I really like Z—And The Police Album too.
But I am thinking she Will be Beatable in Kentucky. She Won 98% in California–Also California has a distinctive climate—Kentucky—She MAY not Thrive??????? Big Question.
If The Girl Wonder will have Most Americanos backing her—-So she Should Go down at a Big to Huge Price..? If She Loses at all??
Good Luck all..
Looking at oddschecker Zenyatta price has dropped (best odds of 11/4 with blue square and 888 sports while Looking at Lucky price is on the drift (Best odds Paddy Power, Ladbrokes & Hills 5/1).
But your just looking for reasons she can get beat.
First her price was too big when 4/1 with Ladbrokes was availible now I bet your looking elsewhere because her price is too short.
Now Looking at Lucky has a poor draw you’re probably desert him too and go for Blame who in a couple of bookmakers has replaced Looking At Lucky as second fav.
Last year I had a small late bet on Zenyatta because they were hyping her up on ATR and John McCrirrick was saying just the same as you ‘HIMSELF’ and when she broke she was dead last, my thoughts was heres another hyped horse who amounts to nothing. However when she turned with 200 metres (or yards not sure how they measure in America) and she flew past them with the speed of a sprinter, I knew she deserved the hype.
Lets be clear on one thing she knows where that line is and in my opinion can pick them off anytime her jockey chooses.
RedRum77, let me assure you that I will be sticking with Lookin’ At Lucky, whom, according to Bob Baffert this very evening, would "run a very big race." He is actually not bothered about his horse being drawn twelve, and was just glad that LAL was not drawn 1.
I might also have a small saver on Blame.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Morning Line Odds and Post Positions
POST HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY ODDS
1 Quality Road Todd A. Pletcher John Velazquez 5-1
2 Paddy O’Prado Dale L. Romans Kent Desormeaux 15-1
3 Haynesfield Steven M. Asmussen Ramon Dominguez 12-1
4 First Dude Dale L. Romans Robby Albarado 15-1
5 Blame Albert M. Stall Jr. Garrett Gomez 9-2
6 Fly Down Nicholas P. Zito Julien Leparoux 15-1
7 Musket Man Derek S. Ryan Rajiv Maragh 20-18 Zenyatta John A. Shirreffs Mike Smith 8-5
9 Pleasant Prince Wesley A. Ward Joel Rosario 30-1
10 Etched Kiaran P. McLaughlin Alan Garcia 30-1
11 Espoir City (JPN) Akio Adachi Tetsuzo Sato 20-1
12 Lookin At Lucky Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 6-1- Total Posts 102
Looking at Lucky is imo, toast. The ptrol has either to be used up too early or he will have to come from a fair way back, i dont think hes the type for that
Hi himself, thought I post 3 different verdicts on the breeders cup classic I’ve read in my racing paper (Weekender )
Alistair Whitehouse Jones says this is the toughest yet. 19 straight wins looks good on paper but top level racing restricted to fillies can be relatively easy for a genuine class act. Even last year classic according to racing post ratings was average and her performance was on a par with Raven’s Pass a year earlier.
Thought you like that report himself, this however is Kieren Fallon opinion that she is a superstar. She is a monster who absolutely oozes with confidence in her own ability. The experts says that she doesn’t act on dirt. She raced she’s raced on both all weather & dirt and remains unbeaten. He thinks Quality Road, Lookin At Lucky has to be respected but Fallon mentions his defeat to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby as a concern.
Finally Nick Motrin gives an horse by horse guide to lengthy to go into but thinks the likely winner to be Zenyatta but if you’re after value for money look elsewhere his suggestions are Espoir City or Musket Man.
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