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You can "maintain" all you like, Fist – it doesn’t mean you’re right or that I (we?) have to accept it. As I pointed out earlier, comparing Secretariat and Sea Bird is pointless, not to say futile, owing to the different racing conditions, tracks etc they encountered separately. One can only conjecture – indeed, I could ask, how would Secretariat have fared if faced with the gradients and hurly-burly of Epsom’s Derby, or the 19 ( mostly top class ) opponents Sea Bird faced in the Arc ?
We all know of Secretariat’s great achievements. Yes they were fantastic, but must be viewed in context. When he lost to Prove Out, the excuses were trotted out like confetti. He had just run in th Malboro blah blah blah etc. Hardly anyone pointed out that Prove Out had just raced 5 times in 5 weeks !
Andrew Beyer, doyen of American racing analysts and ratings guru was asked how he rated Secretariat against other greats. He responded by comparing him to Seattle Slew. " Over a mile to a mile and a quarter, on Dirt, I’d take Seattle Slew to win every time – on turf, Secretariat would win. " Make of that what you will.
It was reported by the Daily News and the NY Times at that time (1973) that during the spring of 1973, the Belmont Park track stewards had ordered the main dirt track to be scraped, rolled and pounded to make it uncompromisingly speed-enhanced for Secretariat’s attempted 25 year-drought Triple Crown.
The New York racing officials also were building hype for another hoped for speed dual pitting Sham vs. Secretariat in the Belmont Stakes. The more speed-enhancing the main track might be made for the event, then all for the better! The racing officials’ speed-enhancing effort resulted in seven new track records within a time-compressed four-month period.
If Secretariat had run on the deeper-cushioned (slower) main track which has existed at Belmont Park for the past two decades, his running time for 1-1/2 miles would been around 2:26 — the same range of running times as were posted by the great racehorses Easy Goer, AP Indy and Point Given.
Conversely, had they each been permitted to run on an artificially-enhanced fast track, comparable to what the track at Belmont was made to be like in 1973, their running times would have been about the same as Secretariat’s.
It is interesting to observe that, when Secretariat ran at 1-5/8 miles in Canada in his last race — which was run on grass — he ran the distance in 2:41-4/5. Running on a reliable fast grass surface (in contrast to the artificially speed-enhanced Belmont dirt track), Secretariat ran a full second slower than Man O’ War’s record time for the same distance at Belmont Park in 1920, which was run on a deeper cushioned dirt track that was a few seconds slower to the mile in 1920 than the Belmont track was in 1973, or that it is today.
I rest.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
JOHN SHIRREFFS
SOURCE: RP ONLINE 17/10/2010"I think she is as good or better than she was last year.
"She has been at the racetrack in training since she was a two-year-old, so her fitness is good," added the trainer. "The main thing you have to do is keep her mentally happy and wanting to do it.
"I think it was a very strong field last year," added Shirreffs. "If you looked at the horses and what they did after the Breeders’ Cup, I think it’s pretty evident. Twice Over won a couple of Group 1s, Rip Van Winkle just won a Group 1.
"She has an opportunity to achieve something unattainable but as far as I am concerned, she is just one of the best ever. When she is done, she is going to go off to the pasture and whether she is 19-for-20 or 20-for-20, I think she will be okay.
Shirreffs doesn’t really want to think about losing the Classic, and possibly missing out on the award (Horse Of The Year) for a third time.
"It would be almost too much," he said. "It would be a real slap in the face. I think she deserves it on what she has done on the track and as for the industry as a whole.
Shirreffs was questioned on the possibility that Zenyatta might also be entered for the Ladies’ Classic on November 5 as a precaution against a muddy track at Churchill Downs.
"There is one problem with that," he explained. "She leaves November 2. So if she doesn’t go there on the 31st you can’t cross-enter. You have to be there four days in advance.
"It’s the same thing this year as last year. We wanted to run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and that was our choice. That’s our choice. If she doesn’t leave until November 2, the decision will have been made."
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Since Twice Overe returned to this country, he has not been out of the frame in arguably the top five ten furlong contests in Europe, with victories in the Eclipse and Champion Stakes, where he beat four-time Group 1 winner, Vision D’Etat, and Arlington Million winner, Debussy.
Gio Ponti showed his class by securing a second Man O’War and warmed up for a crack at the Breeders’ Cup Mile with a smooth victory in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile, beating Courageous Cat into third, who got to within 1/2L of Goldikova at Santa Anita last year.
When you consider how well European turf form translated to the pro-ride surface in California over the past two years, it’s clear that last years Classic was a very decent renewal.
I don’t think that the American 3YOs are a strong bunch this year and I have to say that on all known form, Zenyatta has to run below her best to lose this. One could argue that she could even run a pound or two below her best and still come out on top.
However, I think Lookin’ At Lucky has a fair chance of winning the Classic. As I mentioned in my original post, he will almost certainly get first run on Zenyatta and will be one tough nut to crack, but on all known form, like the rest, he surely has to improve to beat the big mare.
The two obvious factors against her are the travelling and the potential deluge in Kentucky. If she travels as well to Kentucky as she did to Arkansas and the rain stays away, sentiment aside, she should win…barring incident, of course.
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Thanks for that Bos.
I don’t really care what people are saying that Zenyatta hasn’t put a performance deserving of a Breeders winner this season.
If she was mines she’d reach her peak on one day and one day alone as she doesn’t need to be fully wound up to beat what she’s raced again so far this season.
With no Rip Van Winkle or Twice Over to worry about I think this race looks much easier than last season. She’s never run against top class horses on this surface they say. She had never run against the colts is my reply.
The long straight has kjust got to be in her favour. Looking at Lucky doesn’t look anything special to me and unless Blame has alot of improvment in him, which is my biggest fear, I think she’s certainty to go 20/10
Can’t wait for the big day but all the talking in the world won’t change what’s going to happen.
Unless something happens untoward before then I’ll see you after the race to tell everyone I told you so
Unless something happens untoward before then I’ll see you after the race to tell everyone I told you so
… and rest assured that I will be first on to remind you when she gets humped !
So don’t be hiding away in a cupboard of that musty Bangkok flat of yours when the Zenyatta bubble finally bursts. 
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Sounds as if you want her to get beat, Himself. I wonder if you betted on her opposition, or laid her on the exchanges. Which is your choice of course. Of course I see that you’ve named yourself after Arkle’s nickname and I bet the was plenty at the time saying the same about him. Zenyatta will have to earn her win of course and anything can go wrong, but she is a magnificent animal and I wish her well. Its just a case of whom going to be second to her.
Sounds as if you want her to get beat, Himself. I wonder if you betted on her opposition, or laid her on the exchanges. Which is your choice of course. Of course I see that you’ve named yourself after Arkle’s nickname and I bet the was plenty at the time saying the same about him. Zenyatta will have to earn her win of course and anything can go wrong, but she is a magnificent animal and I wish her well. Its just a case of whom going to be second to her.
Zenyatta is very good, Red Rum, no doubt about that, but… my opinion ( for what it’s worth ) is that she is not the wonder mare many would have her – and certainly not infallible. She has has won many Grade 1 races, yes, but the opposition have largely been a moderate bunch – apart from last season’s BC win, when she met an albeit, rapidly improving type in Twice Over, and under par Rip van Winkle, who just hated the whole affair.
This season’s renewal will, I’m sure, prove to be much
tougher.I will not necessarily take any twisted pleasure from it if she loses her final race, but from a betting point of view, yes, I will oppose her – and only because I think she is more vulnerable on dirt and remain unconvinced that she is a "superstar."
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
She normally runs over 1m1f and the extra furlong will be crucial to her. She’s obviously better over 10f because of her racing/running style and Shirreffs has said he think shes better on dirt.
If the old bay mare is still what she used to be, everyone else is running for second. No 6yo has ever won the BCC but Shirreffs and Smith say she’s as good as or better than she’s ever been. The questions I have are will she ship well and have her 8.5-9f prep races against West coast females been enough to get her ready to be at her best in a 10f race against the boys? Switch looks to be a very good 3yo filly and off switch’s last race could be a good priced winner of the BCLC, although in her only dirt race Switch finished 4th. Switch got first run, opened up early in the stretch and was hard to run down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dq8fAQ6yjo
If good horse like Lookin At Lucky or Blame gets a similar advantage in the stretch they will be even harder to run down. Shirreffs has decided to keep Zenyatta at her home base of Hollywood Park to train up to the Breeders Cup and only ship to Churchill on Nov. 2nd. Just enough time for Z to get a gallop or two over the track and school in the paddock and saddling stalls before racing. That strategy worked well when Zenyatta shipped about the same distance from Los Angeles to Oaklawn Park in Arkansas in 2008 and 2010. The good news for Zenyatta is that the BCC is 10f, not 8.5 and at 1234.5 feet the Churchill Downs stretch is the longest at a major track in America. Zenyatta has proven form on dirt and John Shirreffs has said that dirt is her best surface. Another intangible in Zenyatta’s favour is that she is used to large screaming crowds and loud noises that might upset other horses more. She deals with the noisy crowds and pre-race tension with her trademark strutting and dancing while loosening up for a race and she knows where the wire is and is used to winning. She has always been able to go just a bit faster than any other horse no matter the pace or who is in front of her. They will have to beat Zenyatta to take my money. This promo video from 2009 is quite appropriate this year as well.
Thanks JHorse for the link to you tube showing Zenyatta wins. Watching her win from last year, from the dreadful start to the flying finish. Reading some of the comments on you tube they say some say the field wasn’t that great. I say that when the results don’t go the way people want then the excuses start flying.
Discovered watching you tube that Zenyatta was named after the Police Album Zenyatta Mondatta, you learn something new every day.
To all the racing pundits and insiders who triumphed that Ballydoyle was really planning from day one to make an assault on the BC this year exactly how many of his blue blood champions does Aidan plan to use in the great raid? I admit Joshua Tree did not appear until August 17 long after the late training had long since begun so maybe he needed a good rest to get ready.A two year old and the Cesarawitch winner and that is the result of all that planning and preparation!Did Cecil and Stouty focus on the BC? Will they have as many as the man who focused on it? So much for focusing on the BC by Ballydoyle.That first sentence explanation for the poor start to the season by Aidan is worthy of a good smile.No need to stick the knife in.
I’d take Lookin At Lucky to beat Zenyatta if they were racing on a typical American track with a short straight. Zenyatta’s win over Switch was narrow even if she wasn’t at her best, and Lookin At Lucky can kick just as fast and more powerfully than that one.
He was very unimpressive in the Preakness but he beat many of the same horses over further in the Haskell, with a ton of authority. But with the long straight Zenyatta will be very hard to beat.
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Sounds as if you want her to get beat, Himself. I wonder if you betted on her opposition, or laid her on the exchanges. Which is your choice of course. Of course I see that you’ve named yourself after Arkle’s nickname and I bet the was plenty at the time saying the same about him. Zenyatta will have to earn her win of course and anything can go wrong, but she is a magnificent animal and I wish her well. Its just a case of whom going to be second to her.
Zenyatta is very good, Red Rum, no doubt about that, but… my opinion ( for what it’s worth ) is that she is not the wonder mare many would have her – and certainly not infallible. She has has won many Grade 1 races, yes, but the opposition have largely been a moderate bunch – apart from last season’s BC win, when she met an albeit, rapidly improving type in Twice Over, and under par Rip van Winkle, who just hated the whole affair.
This season’s renewal will, I’m sure, prove to be much
tougher.I will not necessarily take any twisted pleasure from it if she loses her final race, but from a betting point of view, yes, I will oppose her – and only because I think she is more vulnerable on dirt and remain unconvinced that she is a "superstar."
Certainly not infallible? 19 from 19 says she is.
I doubt if there’s a horse in training on either side of the Atlantic who could withstand her powerhouse finish.
Last year everything happened so quickly and the straight was so short she could hardly get into full stride and the race was over.
This is a different ball game and being her last race I reckon connections will want to put up a display the world will never forget for her millions of fans.
Not only do I think she’ll win but I think Mike Smith won’t be taking prisoners and will hit them the minute they turn for home and leaving everything in her wake. I can see the race being a complete rout.
Expect to see something very special.
Well Fist, Ladbrokes are still offering 4/1 Zenyatta if you’re that confident.
They, like me, don’t seem to rate her chances as high as you do.
Maybe you just know more about this old racing game than us.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well Fist, Ladbrokes are still offering 4/1 Zenyatta if you’re that confident.
They, like me, don’t seem to rate her chances as high as you do.
Maybe you just know more about this old racing game than us.
Wow 4/1 sounds good value to me, but you might be right. Horses aren’t machines but on last years form I’d say she should be odds on.
Well Fist, Ladbrokes are still offering 4/1 Zenyatta if you’re that confident.
They, like me, don’t seem to rate her chances as high as you do.
Maybe you just know more about this old racing game than us.
Nor do they seem to rate her as high as anyone over here. Most pundits expect her to be odds-on on the tote board.
She’ll be appearing on the news program 60 minutes the Sunday before the BC, providing some much-needed mainstream coverage for horse racing. She is the public face of the sport in the US, so the public who aren’t regular racegoers will bet her down hard.
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