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Hi there, they say the no such thing as a sure thing. However last year Zenyatta won very impressively and remains unbeaten.
What are people’s view of her, can she defend her title or will she taste defeat?
Quality Road at 8/1 is HUGE, and he’ll be more along the lines of 9/2 come the day.
LAS VEGAS Breeders’ Cup Future Odds:
http://www.viewfromvegas.com/Race_Book_Notes.htmlI just don’t trust QR at 10f, since he’s already shown he isn’t his best at 9f, and I also dislike that Pletcher’s training him up and skipping the Jockey Club Gold Cup with a healthy horse. In the non-Zenyatta group Blame has the edge. assuming he does well in the JCGC.
The weekend of October 2-3 will be HUGE. October 2nd has long been known as Super Saturday because it used to be the "New York Champions’ Day" that finished out the season with a G1 race for every division. Then the BC barged in so it’s now relegated to a bunch of prep races. Sadly the Futurity was lost this year thanks to budget cuts, so all the dirt juvies in NY are scattered around, but there’s plenty to watch in the Beldame, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Flower Bowl, Turf Classic, Vosburgh, Kelso Handicap, Miss Grillo, and Pilgrim over that weekend. And that’s just Belmont! Philadelphia Park – excuse me, PARX Racing at Philadelphia Park – has the Cotillion, Hawthorne has the Hawthorne Gold Cup, Turfway has the Fall Championship, Hollywood has the Goodwood and a few other stakes.
A website to bookmark is http://www.breederscup360.com/
A little over five weeks to go, but there’s plenty more to see between now and then.
This coming Saturday, Zenyatta will bid for a hat-trick of victories in the Lady’s Secret at Hollywood Park and extend her unbeaten run to nineteen. Lookin’ At Lucky is due to compete in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby at Hoosier Park, while Blame (Jockey Club Gold Cup) and Rachel Alexandra (Beldame) are set for Belmont Park.
‘Super Saturday’, indeed.
At this moment in time, I think the market has it spot-on with Zenyatta and Lookin’ At Lucky disputing favouritism.
The European challengers do not have the luxury of the pro-ride surface and this has to be considered a major disadvantage. I couldn’t fancy any of them with confidence.
Zenyatta dispatched Gio Ponti and Twice Over last year. The former went on to finish a highly respectable fourth in the Dubai World Cup before landing the Man O’War for a second time. Twice Over has since won the Eclipse and finish placed in the both the Prince Of Wales and Irish Champion.
When you consider how well turf form translated to the Santa Anita surface over the past two years, one could argue that Zenyatta has a more obvious chance at Churchill Downs, taking into consideration how the race could be run.
The vast majority of her victories may have been on the pro-ride surface of Santa Anita and cusion track at Hollywood Park, but Zenyatta has been mightily impressive on the rare occasion she has tackled the dirt surface in her two Apple Blossom victories, albeit against inferior opposition.
It is quite possible that she may be even better on the dirt.
The one worry with Queen Z is her ability to travel from one side of the country to the other. She has clearly enjoyed her road trips to Arkansas for the Apple Blossom, but it has been said that she is not the greatest of travellers and no 6YO has ever won the race.
I’m a huge fan of Lookin’ At Lucky and his Haskell Invitational success was very impressive. He is clearly progressive and very straight-forward. He generally sits in midfield and will almost certainly get first run on Zenyatta. The thing about Bob Baffert’s colt is that he maintains his effort right to the wire and the mare will have to be at her very best to pick him up.
He can be excused for a poor showing in the Kentucky Derby when he endured a horrid passage. He was beaten up early on in that race, yet still did well to run on into sixth. He has to banish the memories of that course and distance experience, but he is tough and will need to be – just three 3YOs have won the race in the last ten years, although two have achieved this in the last three renewals (Ravens Pass / Curlin).
Quality Road and Rachel Alexandra have legions of fans and are extremely talented, but I have to question their ability over this trip against this calibre of opposition. The former has never won over ten furlongs, whereas Rachel has raced predominantly over nine furlongs since her Preakness Stakes triumph, tasting defeat on her only return to the distance.
Both horses like to apply the pressure early on and it’s quite possible they may set it up for a late challenger, like Zenyatta or Blame. A few of the ousiders listed in the betting also enjoy going from the front, so the pace should be hot.
Blame is improving at a rate of knots and defeated Quality Road in the Whitney Handicap last time out. Prior to that, he again came with a late swoop to land the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs
His previous course success came at the expense of future Santa Anita Handicap winner, Misremembered. The latter beat Zenyatta’s stablemate, Neko Bay, and one would have to assume that trainer John Shirreff’s has a good line on that form.
It would, however, be folly to underestimate Blame.
I think the winner will emerge from either of the front two in the market. Queen Z will have be at the peak of her powers to catch the 3YO Lookin’ At Lucky. My heart says she will, my mind says the Bob Baffert colt will repel her challenge.
The full list:
Oct. 2Belmont Park:
The Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational (gr. I), $750,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Flower Bowl Invitational (gr. IT), $500,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f (turf).
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT), $500,000g, 3&up, 12f (turf).
Beldame Invitational (gr. I), $350,000g, 3&up, f/m, 9f.
Vosburgh Invitational (gr. I), $350,000g, 3&up, 6f.
Star of Cozzene S, $70,000a, 3yo, 8.5f.Hawthorne:
Hawthorne Gold Cup H (gr. II), $250,000g, 3&up, 10f.
Robert F. Carey Memorial H (gr. IIIT), $100,000g, 3&up, 8f (turf).Hollywood Park:
Yellow Ribbon S (gr. IT), $250,000g, 3&up, f/m, 10f (turf).
Goodwood Breeders’ Cup S (gr. I), $225,000g, $25,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 3&up, 9f.
Lady’s Secret Breeders’ Cup S (gr. I), $225,000a, $25,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 3&up, f/m, 8.5f.
Norfolk Breeders’ Cup S (gr. I), $200,000g, $50,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 2yo, 8.5f.Hoosier Park:
Indiana Derby (gr. II), $500,000a, 3yo, 8.5f. – Looking At Lucky
Indiana Oaks (gr. II), $200,000a, 3yo f, 8.5f.
Michael G. Schaefer Mile S, $100,000a, 3&up, 8f.Laurel Park:
Maryland Million Classic ®, $150,000g, 3&up, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 9f.
Maryland Million Distaff ®, $100,000g, 3&up, f/m, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 7f.
Maryland Million Ladies ®, $100,000g, 3&up, f/m, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 9f (turf).
Maryland Million Lassie ®, $100,000g, 2yo f, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 6f.
Maryland Million Nursery ®, $100,000g, 2yo, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 6f.
Maryland Million Oaks ®, $100,000g, 3yo f, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 8f.
Maryland Million Sprint ®, $100,000g, 3&up, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 6f.
Maryland Million Turf ®, $100,000g, 3&up, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 9f (turf).
Maryland Million Turf Sprint ®, $100,000g, 3&up, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland, 5.5f (turf).
Maryland Million Distaff Starter H ®, $50,000g, 3&up, f/m, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland who have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less since Sept. 26, 2009, 8f.
Maryland Million Starter H ®, $50,000g, 3&up, progeny of stallions standing in Maryland which have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less since Sept. 26, 2009, 8f.Parx Racing:
Cotillion S (gr. II), $750,000g, 3yo f, 8.5f.
Alphabet Soup H ®, $75,000g, 3&up, Pennsylvania-bred, 8.5f (turf).Oct. 3
Belmont Park:
Kelso Breeders’ Cup H (gr. II), $200,000g, $50,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 3&up, 8f.
Miss Grillo Breeders’ Cup S (gr. IIIT), $100,000a, $50,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 2yo f, 8.5f (turf).
Pilgrim Breeders’ Cup S (gr. IIIT), $100,000a, $50,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 2yo, 8.5f (turf).Hollywood Park:
Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship (gr. IT), $250,000g, 3&up, 10f (turf).
Oak Leaf Breeders’ Cup S (gr. I), $200,000g, $50,000 Breeders’ Cup Fund, 2yo f, 8.5f.Not to mention the two-day Middleburg steeplechase meet featuring the Chronicle Cup timber stakes. Then the Genesee Valley Hunt Cup the following weekend and the International Gold Cup the next, with the all-important Championships at Fair Hill on October 23rd. I’m looking forward to that more than the Breeders’ Cup!
Great write up Bosranic!
The heart does say Zenyatta, just have a strange feeling that she will not get the job done this year, the 3 year old colts do look a bit tasty. Blame was fortunate from a slack ride from Jonny V on Quality Road when they last met, but Lookin’ at Lucky is one to really keep an eye on, and could be something really special! As much as I love Rip Van Winkle, I can not for the life of me seeing a European horse winning on this surface.
Surprised Lookin At Lucky isn’t shorter in the betting.
The 3yo colts are pretty good this year and he’s the best of the lot.
Ignore the luckless run in the Derby and his prep and he’s had a very good season and tbh you just can’t get past the Iron Horse.
I cannot envisage defeat.- Total Posts 17716
Glad to hear Zenyatta is going to have something to race against that might stop her and Mike Smith falling alseep during the race.
The tougher they are the harder they fall is near enough to the saying.
Won’t much matter what the rest do if she has to go into top gear she will. Never had to do it yet but there’s a first time for everything.
Ladbrokes are offering a massive 5/1 but won’t lay it for money.
The 5/2 projected is still huge and I’ll be mazed if she starts anything like that and even more amazed if she loses.
I had alook at Looking at Lucky winning the preakness.
"And here comes Looking at Lucky with a sweeping run on the outside"
yelled the commentator.
If he’d have taken any longer to pass the opposition i’d have fallen asleep. He won ok but those he was sweeping past still right there with him.
If he makes that kind of sweeping run in the Breeders he’ll be blown off the track by the heatwave caused when Zenyatta goes past him like a bullet.
He looked more impressive in the Haskell but his style off running puts the ball firmly in Mike Smith’s court. If he runs his normal race Mike will be able to watch every move he makes and won’t allow him to steal a march. Just a case of following him through and Zenyatta will do the rest. She has much more natural speed than Looking at Lucky and it’s just a case of Mike Smith keeping her out of trouble.
Quality Road will be a sitting duck in this race although he didn’t exactly blaze the trail when Blame beat him. How Blame will react to a faster pace I have no idea but he looks a nippy sort and he could be the one horse who has enough toe grab a jump start into the straight while Mike Smith plays cat and mouse with Looking at Lucky.
Blame because of his style of running looks the main danger to me.
The race has the look of a tactical battle and Mike Smith will have to watch everything like a hawk but all things being equall Zenyatta will prove once and for all she is a class above every other horse in training.
Rachel Alexandra retired…
http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/rachel-alexandra-retires/- Total Posts 17716
Before I stopped betting I had a 50 each-way on Zenyatta at 4/1 quarter odds. She only needs to place and I get my money back.
I think that was worth a bet.
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I just backed her again yesterday at 5/1 and suprisingly they took my full bet. Do they know something I don’t?
Can’t bring myself to backing her each way as she doesn’t know how to lose.
I can’t see her finishes 2nd or 3rd. She’ll either win or God forbid something will go badly wrong and she trail in last.
Mike Smith talking on thoroughbredtimes.com
Source: Racing Post 30/09/2010ZENYATTA ‘NEVER LOOKED BETTER’ – SMITH
"She looks so good right now, I don’t think that she’s ever looked better. I don’t know how she continues to ger better, but she just does.
"Her weight is amazing right now, her colour – she’s dappled out – she’s happy, and she’s training really forward now.
"Before Del Mar, she was just a little lackadaisical, she kind of just went through the motions, but now she’s ‘on’.
"She’s going three-quarters in 1min 13 sec as easy as a horse can do it.
"I can’t honestly say that I’ve gotten to the bottom of her. I go in there every race knowing that any horse can get beat. There have been times when she probably should have been beat. It’s incredible.
"Even in those few moments when I went ‘Uh-oh’ she pulls it off somehow and then hits the wire pricking her ears, like ‘Don’t worry there’s something there, there’s more left’.
"I go into every race knowing that we could get beat, but I really believe in her and I think that, given the opportunity to run her race, she’ll run big again."
It has to be said Zenyatta won with style last year. First time against the colts, believe previously she ran against her own sex and beat them just as impressively, and also I thought the first time at 10 furlongs.
Both these factors was against her but seeing her cross that winning line was just breath taking.She also had her ears pricked and looked like a fresh horse signs that she clearly loves the game and anything which beats her will have to give 100% and they will know they been in a race. [At least while she enjoying the game.]
All her wins look to be local so the question is how would she stand up to travel this time the breeders cup is at Church Down , but also looking at her wins she wins by just whats necessary.
Its these factors her pricked ears and winning by small margins which makes me think that they not yet reached the bottom of her and unless something collides with her as she cruises up to the leaders [ which seems unlikely because she also came wide] I can’t see her being beat.
This is only my personal opinion and have been wrong on many times, but time will tell.
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The this is Red when a horse is so obviously brilliant they don’t have to cross oceans for people to realise it.
If I ever find myself doubting (Like why is she 5/1?) her I just look back at last years race.
Twice over is as good a landmark as you can get. Not only did Zenyaata give him a start Mike Smith at a stage of the race when everyone else was flat to the boards, too the time to take a pull on Zenyatta, steady her and go round Twice Over.
She was in such a bad enough position turning for home I thought she’d need to sprout wing to win. Then when Mike Smith took that pull with only 200 mts the thought was only Pegusus could win from that position yet Zenyatta still won and with ease.
In that standard of race when a horse can do that, how can anyone posssibly doubt her class?
It has to be said Zenyatta won with style last year. First time against the colts, believe previously she ran against her own sex and beat them just as impressively, and also I thought the first time at 10 furlongs.
Both these factors was against her but seeing her cross that winning line was just breath taking.She also had her ears pricked and looked like a fresh horse signs that she clearly loves the game and anything which beats her will have to give 100% and they will know they been in a race. [At least while she enjoying the game.]
All her wins look to be local so the question is how would she stand up to travel this time the breeders cup is at Church Down , but also looking at her wins she wins by just whats necessary.
Its these factors her pricked ears and winning by small margins which makes me think that they not yet reached the bottom of her and unless something collides with her as she cruises up to the leaders [ which seems unlikely because she also came wide] I can’t see her being beat.
This is only my personal opinion and have been wrong on many times, but time will tell.
She’s won the G1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas twice. She shipped to Churchill Downs (in Kentucky, so not quite on the Atlantic coast) last year and was pointed to the Distaff Handicap on Kentucky Oaks day, but was scratched due to the sealed sloppy track. So it isn’t the track that’s going to beat her.
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