- This topic has 4 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
Listening to Dave Nevison on RUK the other day he admitted that he’s the worst layer of horses in the world and has virtually given it up. If he’s the worst I’m a short-head second- virtually the only laying I do now is hedging back part of an each-way or ante-post bet.
I know we have at least one odds-compiler on here and many many punters so my question is: Do you find it easy to play both sides and back and lay or do you find you are more suited to one or the other? I reckon it takes a different mentality to be a bookie, one that I for one don’t posess.I can scrape a profit from backing,but laying is harder for me.Hopefully it is a lesson I can learn .
If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
One of the reasons that I joined BF a few years ago was because I thought it was going to be easy to make lots of money by laying horses not to win or be placed. After a few losing weeks, I realised that I was wrong and it is a lot harder than it seems.
The problem was that I was betting on too many races. I am always selective when backing horses but I was not been as selective when laying them. I now know that I have to be more selective with my bets on laying horses as I am with my bets on backing them.
I’d be interested to hear what others think but I am starting to believe that there are certain times of the year when it is best to concentrate more on laying horses not to win/placed. The start or end of the turf flat season seem good times….also laying strong favs who are unproven on the going seems to be another good strategy.
It can be a slow way of making a profit as I only win the amount of my stake ( less comm’n ) and I still do better in the long term by backing horses.
Pete
As far as I am concerned laying and backing are identical. If you know what is going to win the race then you must know what is going to lose the race and vice versa.
The problem was that I was betting on too many races. I am always selective when backing horses but I was not been as selective when laying them. I now know that I have to be more selective with my bets on laying horses as I am with my bets on backing them.
I’d be interested to hear what others think but I am starting to believe that there are certain times of the year when it is best to concentrate more on laying horses not to win/placed. The start or end of the turf flat season seem good times….also laying strong favs who are unproven on the going seems to be another good strategy.
Yes when I first started laying I wasn’t as discplied or selective as when I was backing. Anytime I saw a favourite that I thought was a bit overrated, I would lay it with the attitude that ‘something will beat it!’ without even doing any research into the opposition.
It didn’t help that I had a contrary side to my personality, a miserable habit of going against the crowd for the sake of it: I would be reactionary towards any hype (including hype that was merrited!) and so before big races with hot ‘public favourites’ I would find a minor negative against the horse and then, fuelled by a fantasy that the horse will get beat and everyone will be disappointed except me, who will stand alone, unique, triumphant with an ‘I told you so!’-expression on my face, I would convince myself that it must lose, and lay it. And it would win easily and I would feel like a right plankton. Luckily I got out of this mode before the last National Hunt season, otherwise I would have probably layed Kauto Star in every race; and then, for good measure, layed my house against Authorized in ‘Frankie’s Derby’.
I stopped all of this when I finally fully comprehended that when I was laying a 3/1 favourite, I was backing it at 1/3 not to win. So if I’m laying something for such little reward, I better have a bloody good reason for laying it rather than simply fancying that ‘something will beat it!’ and being a killjoy.
You need a system of sorts. I look for particular profiles: Group horses that are being asked to peak twice at opposite ends of the season (i.e., Authorized in The Arc); Group horses that come out early in the season in a race which is being used as preperation for future targets and so won’t be fully fit or given a hard time (Reverence on his seasonal debut last year, in a Group 3 giving away loads of weight); horses who have excelled themselves in a big field handicap, then run in a small field listed race (there is an archetypal horse that is suited to a big field and a fast pace, then habitually fail in ‘easier’ races without a frontrunner or ‘cover’, like Borderlescott and Balthazaar’s Gift last year).
If you stick to things like this, you will make a profit; and even when you lose, you can remind yourself that you’re following a system which will be profitable in the long term (rather than getting that crushing, stomach-churning feeling you get after you’ve layed something for no good reason and it has won on the bridle by several lengths, which has to be the worst feeling in racing)..
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.