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Hi
Lingfield 2.10pm Aw runners with positive cycles:
MARKAB [16][56][22][73%]=67
EBRAAM [17][49][40][43%]=40
————————————————————–Hi
Aintree 2.50pm chase with good prize monies.
There are three with good cycles in this race but, Noir Et Vert [37][218][37][100%]= 195, has been discounted due to patently not being suited to the soft ground conditions.GUNGADU [22][274][21][95%]=195
SOUTHERN VIC [14][728][29][48%]=256
————————————————————–Hi
2.40pm Newbury Saturday
Couple of outsiders expected to run above their form lines:Dear Villez 48/47/177/99%= 744
Slim Pickings 20/237/34/56%=700Alexander,
What is the theoretical grounding for this belief in biorhytms? For example, if you were looking at fillies that would be going through a menstrual cycle there would be some rhyme or reason to it. As it stands I don’t see any.
Also, with no theoretical grounding there is no restraints on what the cycles can be – 15 days, 30 days, 120 days long etc. How for example, do you know that a horse’s cycle is 30 when it has peaked 30 days apart and not 15? Both would fit, but one is at a peak when another is at a trough in 15 days time.
Glenn
Thanks for your interest.It’s my contention that each runner will have their unique set of cycles.
Therefore, whether the runner is, horse, mare, filly,colt is of no consequence, and it is inmaterial as to the age.The problem as I see it is defining a previous peak performance. If a previous peak is correctly identified then it is possible to roll out a set of cycles for the future that will have the the peaks and troughs set against any date required.
As mentioned already, the problem arises in identifying a peak performance: you will no doubt agree that simply because a runner has won a race that this necessarily means it has been at its peak on that date. If we can assume that a previous good win was automatically a peak performance then using this information allows all other dates to be assigned cycles.
Kauto Star is a point in question. He’s won so many good races that identifying the best will always be difficult. I suppose on a neutral cycle he could still appear to be running well when contrasted against other runners in the same race. Sometimes its necessary to take a median or average position by examining a series of good results and then examining a series of the poorer results as constrasts. The problem with poor results is that there will always be a multitude of reasons for such outcomes. Examining only good results is perhaps more logical, simply because a runner must at least be in a reasonable state to be able to achieve a good result.
Hi Alexander
As Rory pointed out this approach is very far from new it’s been around for donkies years Then of course very little is new in the world of racing.Hi
Yes, of course you are correct. It’s been around for an age.
The difference is that the approach used here is that each runner is assigned it’s unique cycles. I do not contend that a universal cycle works – that would mean every runner with the same date of birth would perform to their potential on any particular day. Evidently that cannot be the case !
stay luckyIts that time again when I attempt to persuade that Biorhythms have some merit. A few years on and i’m still at it !
Anyway instead of a load theory, today I have attempted by way of demonstration to indicate the circadium patters of the Oaks runners.
I have found that best performances appear to take place following a period when the individual runners wave form cycles have previously been in a low, or "resting state". Coming out of that state would indicate best potential. Unfotunately, the breakdown of runners shown here does not do justice to the patterns of ups and downs of performance and really requires a graph style layout which I don’t thnk would be possible to reproduce for inclusion in this message body.Below are the Oaks runners with their associated various rising or falling states.
19 -14 High Heeled [ R R R 9% ]
22 -21 Midday [ F F F -5% ]
36 193 Oh Goodness Me [ R R F -66% ]
41 421 Perfect Truth [ R R F 55% ]
53 -52 Phillipina [ F F F 36% ]
610 1-5 Rainbow View [ F R R -17% ]
75 -41 Sariska [ F F F 20% ]
84 442 The Miniver Rose [ R R F -59% ]
98 5-3 Tottie [ R R R 78% ]
107 182 Wadaat [ R R R -43% ]Sariska makes no appeal today. Now finds herself in a combined
falling state of cycles having registered best 13/5/09 when confirmed
with joint rising cycles.Oh Goodness Me is the choice: Has two rising cycles (coming out of a resting state) with a third
about to rise in a few days time;Forecast choice would be Wadaat: Perhaps a week adrift from best cycles but nevertheless will
run well having a combined set of rising cylces.
———————————————————————————Oh well – back to the drawing board.
Bad day at the office with laying the Fav in the Oaks
Alex
Saturday’s Lincoln
Beating the drum once again for these Biorhythms:
I cannot drag myself away from the fact that somewhere lurking in the complications of patterns of cycles is a measurable theory that shows when horses are in a positive or passive state. I’ve been experimenting for a few years with such cycles. The following figures are my best shot todate!So, here are some of the more fancied runners in the betting for the Saturday Lincoln Handicap. The selection is made purely on the runner from this group beening deemed in the most positive state for 2nd April.
Prime Exhibit
looks to have a wonderful opportunity.
(Has a set of cycles similar to earlier career wins but on this occasion the % is near lifetime high).PRIME EXHIBIT
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 7-Mar-05 [ F R RWON 12-Jul-10 7-Mar-05 [ R R R
WON 13-Aug-09 7-Mar-05 [ F R R 16% ]
WON 16-Oct-07 7-Mar-05 [ F R R 11% ]
TAQLEED
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 2-Feb-07 [ R R R 59% ]
WON 28-Aug-10 2-Feb-07 [ F F F -11% ]
WON 13-Aug-10 2-Feb-07 [ R R R 17% ]
FREMONT
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 25-Feb-07 [ R F F 50% ]
WON 30-Sep-09 25-Feb-07 [ R R F -7% ]
WON 30-May-09 25-Feb-07 [ R F R 0% ]
GUNNER LINDLEY
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 9-Feb-07 [ R R R -27% ]
WON 9-Oct-10 9-Feb-07 [ R R F 3% ]
WON 17-Jul-09 9-Feb-07 [ F R R -42% ]
IRISH HEARTBEAT
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 20-Feb-05 [ R F F -24% ]
WON 10-Sep-10 20-Feb-05 [ R F F 53% ]
WON 27-Mar-10 20-Feb-05 [ R F F 21% ]
WON 12-Sep-09 20-Feb-05 [ F F F 41% ]
LOWTHER
RaceDate 2-Apr-11 22-Apr-05 [ F F R -2% ]
WON 12-Mar-11 22-Apr-05 [ F R R 12% ]
WON 14-Feb-11 22-Apr-05 [ F R F 32% ]
WON 17-Oct-10 22-Apr-05 [ R F F -5% ]Its worth a closer look at PRIME EXHIBIT. The date block below indicates a very good state of positive ie."well being" between 26th March to 9th April. Saturday’s race of 2nd April sits well. Following the 9th April there is a protracted "passive" state.
26-Mar-11 R R R 10% ]
27-Mar-11 R R R 25% ]
28-Mar-11 R R R 39% ]
29-Mar-11 R R R 52% ]
30-Mar-11 R R R 62% ]
31-Mar-11 F R R 69% ]
1-Apr-11 F R R 73% ]2-Apr-11 F R R 74%
]
3-Apr-11 F R R 71% ]
4-Apr-11 F R R 66% ]
5-Apr-11 F R R 58% ]
6-Apr-11 F F F 49% ]
7-Apr-11 F F F 38% ]
8-Apr-11 F F F 27% ]
9-Apr-11 F F F 15% ]Early doors National look from a Biorhythm perspective:
The runners indicated with a (P) will likely be in a positive state for the National on Saturday 9th April. Energy levels coupled with stamina will be noticeably affected.
There is a persistent theory associated with certain critcal periods. The runers shown with a (C) are deemed to be in such a critical state on the National day. Mistakes are associated with this state.
(L) indicates the runners deemed to be in a low state which means there is an imbalance in their wellbeing and form will be markedly below par.
(N) indicates Neutral, too many runners at this stage of the race enrty to list them all. I’ll put up the complete list closer to the race date.
—————–
Oscar Time RRRF(P)
What A Friend FRF(P)
——————
Full card will be put up Friday
__________________
Earlier Nationals
I’ve just had a look back at the last four National winners;
Don’t Push it I notice was in the optimum Positive state (I had lost interest last year in these Bios and until now didn’t realise the opportunity that I had let slip yet again !) This Year Don’t Push It has a different set whilst still just qualifying as positive.
Mon Mome doesn’t fit the pattern but the state was neutral rather than a Low. Comply Or Die and Silver Birch were both in Positive states.
2010 Don’t Push It FFR (OP)
2009 Mon Mome RFR (N)
2008 Comply Or Die RFF (P)
2007 Silver Birch RFR (P)
_______________________So there you have it folks. Don’t knock it just yet.
(If anyone wants a further breakdown let me know).
AlexI cant say this is my cup of tea but I DO BELIEVE IN CYCLES when it comes to handicaps as they maybe going up the handicap after a win and then in most cases if they are not NEW HANDICAPPERS were they could well notch a few on the trot those that have been around for sometime are only likely to win when carry a certain weight or within a 1lb OF THAT WEIGHT in the future.
I personally think this as a lot going for it but a lot of patience needed as it could be some time AFTER WINNING to drop back to a WINNING CHANCE and so a cycle of events happens before its winning chance may come along again.
I also think if you bought the RACING POST EVERY DAY and marked of all the winners for 3 months in the ratings part
you may well find things that do reoccure and in some cases a lot more than many may think.
So are these cycles or just something that works from another point of view.
% MAN
- Total Posts 17716
Basically the trainer knows best.
But they do sometimes field horses to fill up a race card that otherwise could be abandoned.
Also when they run unexpectedly well, you can say it’s the beginning of the cycle if you like.
The older a horse gets, the less susceptible to erratic behaviour or bounce.
The statistical method to analyze cycles is the Fourier analysis.When experts rate a horse they usually do this:
a) If the last time out rating is the best of the series then true rating = last rating.
b) If the last time out is no good, take the average of last-best.This is not terriby inaccurate, but you could go try for a more sophisticated formula if you like, using the past performences.
Hi folks, thanks for the interest.
I’ve indicated one of the races tomorrow.Incidentally all these runners were foaled in the month of April with of course differing dates within that month and differing years.
As can been seen the fancied Denman looks comfortable with this latest race date. Its interesting that on his latest outing in March ([FFR] C), showed as a critical day. An earlier Low came on race day in November 2010 (FFF, L) and the below par result seems to endorse. Arguably, his career best performance came in March 2008 when he was in an "optimum positive" ([RFF] OP).Thursday April 7 2011
Aintree 3:05pm
Totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 1)
Denman (IRE) [ RRF ] P
Punchestowns (FR) [ FFR ] P
Deep Purple [ FRF ] N
Follow The Plan (IRE) [ RRF ] N
Carole’s Legacy [ RRR ] N
Nacarat (FR) [ RFF ] LAbreviations:
[..] figures inside the brackets indicate rising or falling of cycles at the particular day in question)OP
= Optimum Positive state
P
= Positive
N
= Neutral
C
= Critical
L
= Low
An interesting way is see if a horse is ready to perform at it’s best. Taking the Aintree race, even if Denman was at a "low" would he be running at say 15lb below his best and yet still perform well enough to win as his opponents are 19lb+ behind him even if one or two of them perform at their peak? This doesn’t take any other factors like ground or distance into account.
In summary maybe the biorythms have to be taken in junction with other factors.
Finnesko,
I take your point – Its very valid,bios are only part of the scene. Yet, I cannot help but reckon that somewhere lurking these have a contribution. They drive me to distraction but this site is a good opportunity for me to discipline myself enough to produce some of the findings. Maybe I will need to expand to take into account certain other racing elements. However,for now they are raw figures and if a monkey were riding but the bios were positive it wouldn’t make any difference to the figures assigned.
AlexNATIONAL RATED BY BIOS AS AT THURSDAY’S STAGE.
Oscar Time heads the list by virtue of the clear best set of cycles as at 9th April. Others "well in" indicated in bold type.Oscar Time (IRE) 14/05/2001 (RRF) OP
Or Noir De Somoza (FR) 27/04/2002 (RRR) OP
What A Friend 18/05/2003 (FRF) OP/C
Tidal Bay (IRE) 12/05/2001 (FRF) OP
Don’t Push It (IRE) 06/06/2000 P
Majestic Concorde (IRE) 26/04/2003 P
Niche Market (IRE) 25/04/2001 P
Chief Dan George (IRE) 18/04/2000 P
Comply Or Die (IRE) 11/05/1999 P
Grand Slam Hero (IRE) 10/05/2001 P
Bluesea Cracker (IRE) 01/04/2002 P
BallaBriggs (IRE) 27/04/2001 C
Quolibet (FR) 01/01/2004 C
State of Play 12/02/2000 C
King Fontaine (IRE) 06/04/2003 C
West End Rocker (IRE) 18/04/2002 C
That’s Rhythm (Fr) 14/02/2000 C
Character Building (IRE) 23/04/2000 C
Skippers Brig (IRE) 27/04/2001 C
Piraya (FR) 06/04/2003 C
Dooneys Gate (IRE) 01/06/2001 N
Big Fella Thanks 28/04/2002 N
The Tother One (IRE) 14/03/2001 N
The Midnight Club (IRE) 02/03/2001 N
Silver By Nature 08/03/2002 N
Backstage (FR) 01/01/2002 N
Calgary Bay (IRE) 16/03/2003 N
Killyglen (IRE) 20/04/2002 N
Quinz (FR) 10/05/2004 N
Becauseicouldntsee (IRE) 14/02/2003 N
In Compliance (IRE) 25/03/2000 N
Santa’s Son (IRE) 22/04/2000 N
Surface To Air 18/07/2001 N
Ornais (FR) 01/01/2002 N
Royal Rosa (FR) 19/02/1999 N
Always Waining (IRE) 09/04/2001 N
Faasel (IRE) 17/03/2001 N
Vic Venturi (IRE) 18/05/2000 L
Hello Bud (IRE) 24/04/1998 L
Can’t Buy Time (IRE) 29/04/2002 L
Arbor Supreme (IRE) 05/03/2002 L
Golden Kite (IRE) 25/05/2002 L
Le Beau Bai (FR) 05/02/2003 L
Giles Cross (IRE) 10/04/2002 L———
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