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Hi folks
“Now for something completely different” . Yes, you may view this as Monty Python foolery, but having been fascinated with the possibility that runners can, and indeed, do perform according to their individual cycles, I have decided to post up a regular thread highlighting Biorhythm predications.
Cycles (Infradian Cycles ) form a graph that has its wave style lines of highs and lows. Patterns can be found that indicate the various peaks and troughs of well being.
My contention is that each runner has an individual set of cycles: Following extensive test, I am convinced that a universal method does not exist: Comparing a birth date with any given race date does not identify a high or low state of well being.
If a universal method did exist, it would mean that every runner of the same birth date compared with the same race date, would perform with their potentials exactly the same !The mechanics of finding an individual runner’s cycles requires firstly taking runners lifetime best result/s and aligning these with a state of well being or highs in the cycles. This alignment is achieved by manipulating the cycles to produce highs associated with the best results. The argument is that best results (highest form rating & speed ratings) should naturally coincide with good patterns of cycles indicating well being. Once the manipulated cycles has been assigned to the runner it is a simple task to project the cycles to any given race date required. The projected cycle will subsequently show, high, low, or maybe a neutral state. Armed with this information it is possible to predict how a runner will perform. That is the theory. The runner’s age and sex is not critical due to each runner being subjected to scrutiny of their performances and having individual cycles duly assigned.
Example:
New Approach (dob 18/2/05) seems a sensible choice for an example having won the Epsom Derby and the Champion Stakes.
There has to date been 11 runs. Using the Racing Post form and speed ratings we note that on 20th Oct 07 produced the best speed figure and second best rating figure.
Manipulating the cycles to produce high state for this date results in [R][R][R] 86% (13days). Ie. Rising cycle, Rising cycle, Rising cycle, 86% highest combined % to be found with this runner. 13days, noted that this date found the runner in the 13th day of a high state.
Projecting this cycle to other race dates: 7th June 08 finds [F][F][R] 66% (14days)
Cycles just starting to fall back but still high hence 66%. 14 days into current high state.
18th Oct 08, [R][R][R] 75% (9 days) Latest run shows excellent cycles with rising cycles coupled with combined figure of 75%. 9 days into current high state.
On the minus side 23rd Aug 08 produced [F][R][F] 9% (-) This race found New Appraoch returning a lowly speed figure and lowly rating for this race.
Hence, generally falling cycles coupled with low % and not in a pattern that indicated a good state.Obviously, these are clear examples of New Approaches outcomes many are more complex and confusing. Nevertheless I hope this has given you a flavour of the approach adopted.
The peaks and troughs are very varied as indeed they will remain throughout the lifetime. For New Appraoch there appears High states usually lasting about 2 weeks with differing periods between these good states. On the other side of the coin, i’ve noted longest period of about 90 days with poor or neutral states before another high state occures.
Bounce factor has been the subject of controversy. The term stems from American form students Beyers et al: They contend that if a runner puts up a lifetime best performance then there is a strong likeliehood that a subsequent run within about a 6 week period of the best performance will result in a poor performance. There is some evidence to support this propositon.
I’ve analysed this phenomena and found that Biorhythms sit very well with this bounce factor theory. A lifetime best performance will have occured when the runner has been in a peak cycle for roughly 13 days. The subsequent pattern for any runner will be a rapidly entering trough that last about 2 weeks, the next phase is a slight rise in the cycle (still in a low/neutral state) which last again about 2 weeks. Following this period there is a low state that is maintained for anything up to 10 weeks !
—————————————————————————————————–LING 2.40pm
11 Flure De Leise 118 [ F[/color:2fvwscrj] R[/color:2fvwscrj] F[/color:2fvwscrj] 74% ]
3 Harvest Queen 26 [ R R R 70% ]
8 Desert Chill 32 [ F F R 39% ]
5 Shabiba 27 [ R F R 28% ]
2 Fragrancy 13 [ R F R 21% ]
1 Baharah 12 [ F F R 16% ]
12 Kylayne 16 [ R F F 12% ]
9 Don´t Forget Faith 33 [ F R F -15% ]
6 Sourire 81 [ R R F -21% ]
7 Born Tobouggie 16 [ R R F -48% ]
10 Dream Day 16 [ R R F -48% ]
4 In The Light 13 [ R F F -54% ]LING 3.10pm
10 Silk Affair 28 [ F R F 74% ]
11 Storyland 28 [ F R R 57% ]
9 Mount Lavinia 29 [ F R R 54% ]
2 Les Fazzani 67 [ R F R 50% ]
1 Ronaldsay 13 [ R F R 48% ]
5 Susie May 34 [ F F R 45% ]
7 Elmaleeha 34 [ R R R 44% ]
4 Silver Mitzva 34 [ R F F 43% ]
6 Armure 12 [ R F F 9% ]
8 Mischief Making 151 [ R F F -17% ]
3 Samira Gold 43 [ R R F -30% ]Two good class 1 races today. Both races having rank outsiders expected to run to their potential. Its not suggested that either is necessarily capable of winning but they are in good cycles today.
Harvest Queen and Storyline would appear to represent better chances in their respective races. They would seem to have the ability coupled with good bios.
_______________________________________________________Alexander, I am interested in viewing your posts on this but know nothing about horses or where to go about getting the info you have posted. Could the same not be true of humans,(tipsters from the newspapers)? I think that if all the data could be gathered it would help to identify which tipsters perfomed best at different times of the year,tracks,flat, jumps,etc and see if a few were in sync,not exactly together, but close enough to string together some lucrative multiple bets, Anyway I digress, please keep posting.
Hi
Early look at Tuesday’s Exeter’s 3.40pm handicap chase
Chance tonight to snaffle the odds maybe with betfair ?Vedelle 24 days since last ran.
Earlier best runs : 678 days ago with 16 day gap between that race and previous. 2nd best earlier run 694 days ago with 21 day gap.Certainly an age ago to find solid performances. However, with a recent run and the interval form looking promising the rating for this race is 57[/color:1fcvudkh].
Next best is Asudo 17 days sine last ran.
Earlier best noted as being 716 days ago with a 27 day gap between that race and previous. Rated this race 30[/color:1fcvudkh].
Nothing else has interval form that is as obvious as the two mentioned aboveNot exactly new as Alexander has been banging this particular drum for a few years now. Personally, I think it’s a load of mumbo jumbo, but I shall keep half an eye on results.
Rory, if for a moment we accept that there is some merit in these cycles of peaks and troughs and that each runner has their individual pattern of cycles, then its necessary to identify some starting point.
The starting point is the runners best cycle. Finding this isn’t as straightforward as it seems; a ruuner’s best performance may not be the peak of a cycle – obviously somewhere near but not necessarily the optimum.
My contiunal problemm is finding an absolute best for an individual. Once identified this cycle pattern can be projected to any given date for a future race.
Consider the case of Kauto Star; he has run so many good races that finding the best will always be a problem. I’ve experimented with a sort of "triangulation" taking the best 3 races by rating and top speed and then used the mean to identify a good starting point.
I accept that non of this is very scientific, however, as you have mentioned, I have lived with these bios for a few years now. Frustrating, but I remain convinced there is something worthwile hidden in the complexities of these cycles.
My attempts to unravel these are naive in the extreme, but one day someone will carry this forward with the aid of techology not available now. Bios could then regularly become discussed in racing circles and forums as a credible factor in winner finding.
On the other side of the coin – perhaps you are correct and that there is no merit in these bios. As i’ve said many times before, "the jury is still out".
__________________________________________________Hi
Kempton 7.50pmScratching around somewhat today to find a decent race. Decided on the best value race to analyse. The two below are positives.
Gravitas [222][23]
Scintillo [388][15]
—————————–Hi alex
Came accross this and thought of you http://www.biovalhorse.com/page5.html
Good Luck
Monster
hi
Lingfield 2.50pmA couple of runners in this tight handicap on the 7F Aw have positive cycles:
Markab [40] [22] WON 10/1[/color:3qz89ppt]
Hinton Admiral [96] [22]Hi Monster,
Thanks for highlighting the Biorhythms site from across the pond.
I have discussed these bios with the author Milton many times – incidentally, it was via this forum a few years ago that I first met him.
Milton maintains that there is a universal cycle for every runner born with the same date of birth. I’ve carried out extensive tests without any positive outcomes that support this proposition.
Therefore, fundamentally we do not agree. I maintain that each runner has their unique set of patterns.
Milton maintains that his bio charts highlight a runner’s well being etc, and the knowledge form his charts are best applied for trainers working or resting their runners as preparation. In fairness he does not maintain that winner finding is the best use of these bio cycles.
He’s an interesting guy who will I am sure would be happy to explain fully to anyone wishing more detail. As mentioned, he used to post regularly on this forum so maybe he could do so again if there were renewed interest.
Alex
Doncaster 3.10pm
Presvis [49] [28] Non Runner [/color:q6b42vy8]
Magicalmysterytour [28][–]Hi
Sedgefield 2.20pm
Reasonable value race with a couple of positive cycles amongst these hurdlers:
Theatre Belle [10][206][10]24
Breaking Storm [10][44][4]26
_____________________________Hi
Wolv 8.20pm
Positive cycles recorded below:
Nanton [32][39][14]51 [b:1hiifwq1]WON 4/1[/color:1hiifwq1][/b:1hiifwq1]
Suits Me [11][11][16]41 [b:1hiifwq1]WON 7/1[/color:1hiifwq1][/b:1hiifwq1]DEAT HEAT WITH SELECTIONS 1ST & 2ND [/color:1hiifwq1]
——————————Hi
Kempton 8.20pm
Positive cycles recorded for the above race
Multakka [36][376][25]=41
Commander Cave [15][174][29]=33 WON 5/2[/color:tf0481em]
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