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The Juddmonte International at York today with a book of 137%!!!!
Unbelievable prices: Frankel 1/10, SNA 5/1, That Thirsk Handicap Winner 10/1 already equals about 117%. The Juvenile Hurdle at Newton Abbot today was just 9% overround (109%). What are the bookmakers thinking and is probably the best race ever ran less predictablke than an Irish Bumper??? Were they afraid of anything strange going on? I just can’t believe it and I can’t believe that people are willing to accept this….What was the over-round of the off course bookmakers in the Pricewise box this morning RL? I don’t mean "best prices" over-round, I mean each individual bookmaker.
It’s true, I’ve noticed before York bookies aren’t generous to put it lightly. However, this was a terrible race for any bookmaker allowing each way betting. I’d have wanted to bet win only if I were them, and I don’t think SP’s come from win only bookmakers.
Mathematically the best each way races to bet in are those with a short priced favourite… Frankel 1/10. And/or a straight 16 or 8 runner field… Although there was 9 runners today, 3 of them were pacemakers, my 100% book had those three’s combined chance as 0.05% 2000/1, so effectively a 6 runner race. And three of those Twice Over, Planteur and Sri Putra (particularly the last named) had little chance… Which left St Nicholas Abbey and Farhh as the obvious each way bets.
My 100% book was:
Frankel 82%, St Nicholas Abbey 7.5%, Farhh 5.25%, Twice Over 2.75%, Planteur 2.25%, Sri Putra 0.2%, Bullet Train 0.05%, Robin Hood and Windsor Palace no price (less than 2000/1). And I had Frankel as poor value, ie many other value bettors would’ve had the others at even bigger odds (smaller percentages) in their books.Unfortunately RL, each way bookmakers can’t afford to bet to anything like their normal over-rounds in a market such as this. Races with a 1/10 fav, 3 with virtualy nil chance, three others with little chance, in a 9 runner race; don’t come around very often. Though it does look a little high.
Value Is EverythingI posted on Twitter to say the bookies were running a stitch up on Frankel’s race. Tanya saying SNA weak at 11 on the exchanges, yet shows at 5/1 on the book (in from 10).
Sri Putra, basically the 4th placed runner at very best, in from 66 to 25. Even Bullet Train was clipped from 300 to 100. Joke.
If they dont want to accept e/w money, then dont offer up silly odds then snatch them back once people are on at SP. ‘Stitch up’ is the only word for today’s race.As Ginger says the race was priced up on each way liabilities. An absolutely filthy race for the bookies with 9 runners and 6 virtual no hopers.
What bookmaker on God’s earth betting each-way on the race yesterday was going to offer 10/1 about a horse available at 4/11 on the exchange place market?????
And of course exchange customers could have bet into a 102% win market for as much as they liked.
As it was on the exchange where the likely placers were standard prices too but for the win price for Frankel the ESP was over 50% higher than ISP and for the rest of the field the win ESP was hundreds of percent higher than ISPs and the book was 102% – you could even get 200 to place on the exchange for a 100/1 win ISP.
Most people at the races don’t know and don’t care because surely if they did they would use the exchange, it only needs a phone but that’s not the fun when you’re at the races is it?
Then again, if you check the results every day you’re looking at a 20%+ difference on every race, class 6 seller to the big races, no more of a rip for the Juddmonte than it is every day.
I posted on Twitter to say the bookies were running a stitch up on Frankel’s race. Tanya saying SNA weak at 11 on the exchanges, yet shows at 5/1 on the book (in from 10).
Sri Putra, basically the 4th placed runner at very best, in from 66 to 25. Even Bullet Train was clipped from 300 to 100. Joke.
If they dont want to accept e/w money, then dont offer up silly odds then snatch them back once people are on at SP. ‘Stitch up’ is the only word for today’s race.If every bookmaker bet win only in a race where the favourite started 1/10 we’d get even more punters complaining.
I would’ve loved to bet "each way" yesterday RD, but saw the prices were reduced. So (basically) forced to take win betfair odds about Farhh 43/1 and Planteur 139/1 with other bets on the "without Frankel" market, 4/1 Farhh and 12/1 Planteur… Which combined isn’t far off betting "each way" ie first 2.
Value Is Everything
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