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Big Fields And Draw Bias

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  • #12794
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    Just watched the 2.25 at Newmarket. Markazzi from an in-form stable ran a shocker in any case but that is my last bet in a big field Flat race. Nobody could have foreseen that result – one side with supposedly the worst horses finishing ten lengths clear – and it makes a mockery of betting. You will never know whether the ground is the same across a course so it is time to give up rather than just handing money to the bookmakers.

    #251546
    robert99
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    • Total Posts 899

    5+ lengths to Alfred Noble – not 10.
    How can you be sure that it was a draw bias in good-firm ground? Watering on Friday for last 6f was only 4mm. Did any jockeys walk both sides of the course??
    The far side did not waste time with a slow start and placed horses kept in touch with the pace throughout. That needs to be done on faster ground. The near side lost ground at the start, then tried to catch up, then bunched as they ran out of gas so that AN had to go around.

    If races are allowed to split like this you will inevitably get two races, one each side. If one group runs a better race, they get a better result.

    #251547
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    General comments from the jockeys who came over to the stand side is they "screwed up" and gave too much ground away by coming over in the first place.

    Their view was the ground was even all the way across – a simple tactical error at the end of the day.

    #251565
    weejoe81
    Member
    • Total Posts 45

    What i dont understand is how could something like 86 tickets (if i remember correctly) pick a 66/1 outsider on the scoop6 from this race. I might be being silly or did some people already know ???

    #251567
    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4515

    It matters little if it was five or ten lengths we are talking a big margin. The bottom line was if you backed Alfred Nobel or anything else on that side you were effectively just handing money to the bookmakers. Up to you if you want to carry on doing that – for me that race was the line in the sand.

    It’s the same old story if the jockeys accepted the ground was even across the track why did they all come across in the Cambridgeshire?

    When they split in two groups most punters are guessing on both the ground and jockey’s intentions. It just makes betting a complete lottery.

    #251568
    rory
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    • Total Posts 2685

    It matters little if it was five or ten lengths we are talking a big margin. The bottom line was if you backed Alfred Nobel or anything else on that side you were effectively just handing money to the bookmakers. Up to you if you want to carry on doing that – for me that race was the line in the sand.

    It’s the same old story if the jockeys accepted the ground was even across the track why did they all come across in the Cambridgeshire?

    When they split in two groups most punters are guessing on both the ground and jockey’s intentions. It just makes betting a complete lottery.

    I don’t believe there are any jumps races run on a straight track; perhaps this might be the answer?

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