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betting exchange theory

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  • #1023
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    This is an interesting thread Ian!

    Does this mean that the exchanges betting market effectivley has no overround, or is the overround all lumped on the winner @ 5%. So in effect each horse has an overround of 5% from the ‘exchanges point of view’. Or have I got the wrong end of the stick?

    And if this is the case how is the betting market structured?

    #43441
    Avatar photoRacing Daily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1416

    The over-rounds are normally between 101 – 109% near the off.  Early doors it’s not unusual to see 135%.

    #43442
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    How can that be, if there is no bookie? I’m not being funny. I just don’t understand why there needs to be an overround.

    #43443
    Avatar photoMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6933

    I was wondering why as well Dave.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #43444
    Avatar photoMatron
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6933

    Thanks for explaining that Ian.

    You learn something new at "TRF" all the time.

    Regards – Matron<br>:cool:

    #43445
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Thanks for that Ian.

    #43446
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    What about betting at exchanges?

    Do you have to bet over the internet or can you make other arrangements?

    If you don’t want to sit at your computer all day, when would the first show be for a particular race or can you bet at any time on any race?

    If you wanted to have a big bet, say £500 ew, on an outsider, how would you bet? Would I take a certain price and then wait for another layer, or doesn’t it work like that. Does it go into a pool and shared amongst a group of layers?

    How does each way betting work on the exchange with virtually no overround couldn’t this create an underround on the race?

    #43449
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 556

    Phew lots of questions there DJ.

    The most prolific B.Ex. (Betfair) will allow you to telephone in a bet (or lay) but will dictate a minimum spend i.e. £50.

    The ‘first show’ is as soon as a potential backer or layer has offered or requested a price on a particular horse or horses – the night before is normal for most racing.

    If you wanted a bet of any size your first decision is "what price do I want?" If the price you have decided upon (or better) is available and in the amount you wanted to back (£500 in your example) then you could accept that and place your bet. if however you wanted say 3/1 and the best on offer was 11/4 then you could enter a request for a layer (or layers) to match your £500 @ 3/1. You could enter that request and go back to the computer later to see if it has been accepted in part or wholly.

    Finally, yes it is possible occasionally to see underround books – but there are some very shrewd operators on the exchanges and they would normally soon be snapped up.

    Hope this helps

    #43450
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Thanks for input Snowman.

    I think I’m beginning to understand how this works.

    If you were to have a bet on the exchange the night before the race. You would have to decide what price you thought your selection should be. You would have to make up a punters book (100%) and then put the bet in your favour by say 5%. So if you thought your selection was a 2/1 shot you’d try to get at least 5/2. If you got more you’d be happy but you’d walk away if you couldn’t get on at 2/1.

    No the other hand your big bet might not be taken at the price you want. Would this mean dropping the requested odds?

    Am I on the right track here?

    #43452
    sacha
    Member
    • Total Posts 55

    Really sorry – but could someone explain the overround principle. (ignoramus here)

    #43453
    snowman
    Participant
    • Total Posts 556

    DJ If your bet wasn’t taken at your requested odds then it’s your choice wether you stand your ground and risk not getting the bet on, or should you drop your price?

    You’ll often find 25/1 shots on offer at 40/1 or greater but 2/1 favs will typically be 9/4 or thereabouts.

    sacha – if you read Ian’s initial post he gives an example of 2 even money shots (coin toss) being offered by a bookie at 4/5 each. In Ian’s example the bookie makes £1 no matter what the outcome. This represents a fraction over 11% of what he has taken in bets so the book is said to be OVERround. If the bookie offered 11/10 the pair then punters could make a profit no matter what the outcome – so the book is said to be UNDERround.

    Hope this helps.

    #43454
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    That’s good and thank you for the feeback.

    I had a look at the Betfair site today and watched a couple of betting rounds. Could anyone please explain what it’s all about?

    I know it may be basic but I honestly don’t have a clue and an explanation would be very appreciated.

    #43455
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    When I go onto Betfair I see two columns, one is to bet the other is to lay, best odds available.

    If I was happy with the lay oddsand if I’m betting I request my bet at this is, the ‘price’, my bet gets matched and I’m on. Or should I request a higher price?

    Will Layers come to take your bet or do you go down to lay?

    #43456
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Thanks Ian.

    If I’m betting and my bet gets ‘no takers’ at what point do I know that I’ll not get my bet on? or does this means I will have to go lower and match the lay price? Or will there be some cases that I will not get a bet on because there are no layers?

    It makes me uneasy thinking that I might not get matched and then maybe miss a bet.

    Looking at the big races on Saturday morning at Lingfield there was no place market. The horse I was looking for was 22/1 on Betfair and 20/1 on the Tote which doesn’t seem like good value. Or was I there too early?

    By the way, the horse in question opened at 14’s, drifted to 16’s and finished nearly last of 15.

    #43457
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    Thanks for all of the information and advice Ian.

    I’ll go and open an account with Betfair and see what it’s like, doing it for real. I’m not too sure about laying bets, so I’ll leave that alone just now.

    Once again many thanks!

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