December 16, 2006 at 20:57 #567
OK – had a bad day today – lost about 7 points. A couple more bad days/weeks in a row and 20 points could go belly up. This has basically raised 2 issues:
1. How do I select the actual bets<br>2. How many bets is too many
I’ve been using a system which is doing prety well this season. But 7 pts down over the last 2 days means I’ve got the jitters about it now. Plus it’s hard to feel involved in the selections, if you know what I mean. There’s a lot to be said for picking a winner with pure form study.
I was wondering how many bets do you lot have on Saturdays, and how many do you think you SHOULD have? Would you do better if, instead of backing 5 horses on a Saturday, you put the 5 pts on one horse which you really fancied. Do you use level stakes?
<br>Any thoughts?December 16, 2006 at 21:39 #33671GrimesParticipant
- Total Posts 1891
Too many. Particularly in the smaller races in the smaller meetings.
When I pick what I believe to be a great value bet, at the time I’m extremely sanguine, but pending that race and in between such bets I fall prey to a strange syndrome, whereby – I’m sure it’s a subliminal kind of nerves – I take false comfort in having something on the equine world and his wife.
Yet nearly always I curse for missing a bet I should have done, e.g. Billy Voddan today. A couple of years ago, everyone was saying to watch out for it, and I don’t believe it did much up to now.
The result is that win or lose on the day, my returns are much less than they should be.
As regards systems, basically they have no appeal for me, though, for example, I watch out for the Mirror’s Spotform, to see if one nag is rated at the very least 3 points above the next best-rated horse, in a field where nearly all would be rated and none foreseeable improvers.December 16, 2006 at 21:59 #33672davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
It’s really a case of doing what works for you I think. Personally I tend to back 2 or 3 horses a day, but I know people who make it pay by taking a view in every race. Obviously Saturday’s are a little different because the volume of racing is often near twice that of a weekday so I’ll probably end up backing 5 or 6 then.
If you have identified 3 or 4 horses that you think are overpriced, I don’t see the point in the disregarding all but one of them and ‘lumping’ the other one. If you identify a horse that is overpriced, you back it simple as. I imagine there would be nothing more frustrating than seeing one of those you disregarded romping home after you backed just the ‘nap.’
I don’t use level stakes, but I don’t vary too far from them. The vast majority of my bets would be 3 pts, occasionally 2 but rarely less. Similarly it is sometimes more, 10 pts would be a very strong fancy and my maximum was 40 pts. Though that was with a horse I had a very small share in and haven’t been close to being that confident since.December 16, 2006 at 22:35 #33673
Quote: from davidjohnson on 9:59 pm on Dec. 16, 2006[br]I imagine there would be nothing more frustrating than seeing one of those you disregarded romping home after you backed just the ‘nap.’
Absolutely. At some stage or other everything has a frustrating moment. I think the most frustrating winning bet for me was backing Land N Stars at 50/1 but I was using variable stakes at the time so I only had ÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚Â¬1 on it! I was never so annoyed to see a winner!<br>
Quote: from davidjohnson on 9:59 pm on Dec. 16, 2006[br]Similarly it is sometimes more, 10 pts would be a very strong fancy and my maximum was 40 pts.
Was that Saif Sareea?
<br>The main issue with a system is that there is not ONE member of this forum who hasn’t tried a system at one stage or other (probably when they started out betting) but most would not try a system in million years now. It’s drummed into you that systems don’t work in the long run even if they do work for a while.
Just before I joined the forum, I tested a system for a month and it made 30 pts profit. Then I started backing it (and putting the selections on the systems section of the forum), it made a 20 pt loss in 18 days before I quit)
The other issue with system selections is that with some of them there is always a nagging suspicion that the horse just can’t win. For example, Rhinestone Cowboy was a system selection today! But because it’s a system you HAVE to back it.
The one thing that’s doing my head in at the moment is that my system is covering my form study selection losses but I don’t know if I would be better off using the time I’m spending on the system studying form and therefore making my form selections pay (and feeling confident about my bets)
Am I making sense at all?
(Edited by davidbrady at 10:52 pm on Dec. 16, 2006)December 16, 2006 at 22:41 #33674davidjohnsonMember
- Total Posts 4491
It was indeed Saif Sareea when he won at Musselburgh off a mark of 90. Shows how well handicapped he was that day when he ran a good third to the Ladbroke winner in the Swinton as an afterthought off 118!!!December 17, 2006 at 03:19 #33675The Market ManMember
- Total Posts 396
I think what suits one doesn’t suit another. Nowadays I barely study the form book at all in order to find a bet I prefer instead to use my eyes and know the horses. The only time I usually look at the form book is for reference in helping to learn more about a particular horse.
In terms of number of bets, I’ll bet when I think there is something worth backing I’m happy going a week or two with no bet if neccessary.
I generally bet at level stakes or at least very close to levels.
PS! I agree there is nothing worse than not backing a horse and it wins. I did that last week with Exotic Dancer. I’d rather back loads of losers than miss out on one winner.
(Edited by The Market Man at 3:20 am on Dec. 17, 2006)December 17, 2006 at 04:04 #33676Maxilon 5Member
- Total Posts 2432
TMM, I agree with everything you said.
I’d rather lose the missus by a short head than pass over a winner.
One other thing.
Selective betting is extremely boring. I accept it is probably more profitable and those full-wallet moments are as satisfying as a cold Bounty, but the gaps in between are just not worth the angst.
If it has four hooves, is twice the odds it should be, and is ridden by a Saint, back it. That’s my considered opinion.
Great topic!December 17, 2006 at 11:36 #33677dave jayMember
- Total Posts 3386
It depends what you call a bet doesn’t it? I think its important to separate what your selections are from your betting.
If you back to win and to place .. I look at that as two bets and run two separate banks for them.
Three selections a day and around five bets is about right for me, well five max, all the way down to nothing. But mainly nothing.December 17, 2006 at 16:21 #33678NWRAMember
- Total Posts 259
I use a few systems, which aren’t really systems but more ways of rationalizing the instinctive keenness that I’ve always had for backing ‘types’ of horses; and identifying whether a horse definitely belongs to a type or not.
I use level stakes, and gamble around once a fortnight (generally on short priced favourites, i.e., my last bet was on Peruvian Prince on Friday and he had everything that I look for in one of the systems).<br> Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â
(Edited by NWRA at 4:23 pm on Dec. 17, 2006)December 17, 2006 at 18:53 #33679ArtemisParticipant
- Total Posts 1736
Surely, it is races that are independent events and not calendar days that should define a person’s bets. X number of bets per day is restrictive because one day there might be nothing worthwhile and the following day there could be six or seven. Newspapers, tipsters and some(not all) tipping lines are required to sell their product on a daily or weekly basis, but horse races arrive as a continuous series of unique events stretching away into the future and not as a discrete number of races per day or any other artificial division.
That is the scientific approach, for what it’s worth and it supports those punters who bet whenever they consider the odds are in their favour.
Personally, I bet for interest and hope to break even or minimise my losses. I do this by having single bets, doubles, trebles and accumulators with a bonus of triple odds for just one winner – usually a Lucky 15. This forces you into backing four or five horses PER DAY, which is not at all scientific, but as I said, I bet mainly for amusement.
Serious bettors should bet whenever they feel like it with no self -imposed rules or restrictions about when or when not to bet. They may have their own rules relating to form, stakes and odds, but not timing.December 17, 2006 at 20:55 #33680gooserMember
- Total Posts 1
You always read that the punters that the bookmakers fear are those that have infrequent but large single bets whereas they love those who bet in lots of races and in multiples.
I would agree that putting restrictions or a system on yourself is unproductive. it is difficult though to wait a few weeks for a bet and on one day four bets come up.
I personally bet the same large bet on every race though this means I wait for long periods for something I fancy at a price I like. Very easy to remember every year how much I have won and lost. Plus if you don’t fancy the horse to have a big bet, you should’nt be backing it.December 17, 2006 at 21:11 #33681DroneParticipant
- Total Posts 5111
Good post from Artemis.
One, two, ten, none a day who knows before the races are studied. If there’s a play then play, if there isn’t then don’t.
Previous bets do not influence subsequent ones and none are more important than others hence: win singles, level stakes.
I don’t do systems but for those that do, it strikes me that they’re a very stern test of punting discipline: the steel balls needed to if necessary wait a lengthy time for a qualifier to appear and then to punt them without concerning yourself with the make-up of the race it’s running in i.e. not worrying about ‘dangers’
Regarding losing runs: if you’re confident your method/system is sound then plough on regardless or if a severe case of cold feet sets in then paper trade for a while and let the stress hormones return to normal levels.
Saturdays are something of a catch-22 for those with a proper job. More disposable time to devote to betting but generally tricky, competitive races to unravel and plenty of them. Tends to be a quietish day for me; a day to enjoy quality racing for it’s own sake.December 17, 2006 at 21:52 #33682
Quote: from gooser on 8:55 pm on Dec. 17, 2006[br] Very easy to remember every year how much I have won and lost.
The only way to "know" how much you have won or lost is if you have it written down in black and white.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.