Betlarge ‘pro-gambler’ – Final report!

[Gingertipster]

Thanks for the response Mike.

I’m still a bit confused though, Ginger mentioned a Timeform form book – what sort of info does this contain Ginger?

You can still get the

Timeform Black Book

form "book" in paper format THM. But why not go on to Timeform’s web site and have a look around yourself? There’s a menu, look up anything you wish. Either

Race Passes

(my choice) or

Computer Timeform

would be what I’d describe as their computerised "form books". But there are other products too. They explain in some detail the sort of info each product contains.

Just google what you are interested in THM.
Give me a shout if you want any help.

Value Is Everything

[Cav]

Good stuff Mike.

One mans 5900 in 5 months is another mans 28320 in 12 months, if he just doubles his stake. Bank doubled as well.

Playing with an unmarked card, your not going to beat the machine at BFSP in percentage terms by much more after deductions at your level of turnover, no matter how good you are. No way Jose. That extra 3-4% may lie in a combination of using less publicly available data (more expense) and taking earlier prices (more time).

HOWEVER and here’s the rub…you understate your selection prowess (although a cursory chi square test on your returns would have me concerned going forward) and overstate your psychological aptitude for the process. Crucial.

The positives of full time punting on the horses as espoused by some of the well meaning replies on this thread (probably all made by members who don’t punt full time) underplay the serious downsides to it as well. "Emotional detachment" from such a huge investment in time and money is a myth…..there are consequences to that investment.

But I suspect you know that at this stage.

Thanks Mike.

[thehorsesmouth]

Thanks for the response Mike.

I’m still a bit confused though, Ginger mentioned a Timeform form book – what sort of info does this contain Ginger?

You can still get the

Timeform Black Book

form "book" in paper format THM. But why not go on to Timeform’s web site and have a look around yourself? There’s a menu, look up anything you wish. Either

Race Passes

(my choice) or

Computer Timeform

would be what I’d describe as their computerised "form books". But there are other products too. They explain in some detail the sort of info each product contains.

Just google what you are interested in THM.
Give me a shout if you want any help.

Thanks GT. Had a look around the site and at their daily free Race Pass, looks good in fairness but I couldn’t justify the expense to be honest. I generally use the form from RP and then if I think I might be considering a bet look up some race replays elsewhere, then prices before making my mind up. Usually I can tell from first glance at a card if there’s a horse I might be interested in backing.

[Gingertipster]

Fair enough THM, for many punters Race Passes would not be justifiable @ £2.31 per day/£70 a month (which adds up to £840 a year); especially if you’re after backing one particular horse anyway.

I find no need to pay for any other paper/service which cuts down on my costs.

Value Is Everything

[apracing]

Mike,

I think you are seriously underselling your achievement here. By the traditional measures of total net profit or return on investment etc, it looks pretty good to me. But the measure I prefer is to say that in 5 months, you have made a profit equal to almost 30 times your average stake (and of course I understand that’s a fixed stake for you).

As it happens, I’ve managed nearly the same return over the same five month period, in my case of approx 28 times my average stake this flat season. And I reckon I’ve had a brilliant season! But although the actual profit figure is bigger, that’s just because my average stake is bigger.

So I did some checking and I can tell you that in the last 40 seasons (20 flat, 20 NH), I’ve done better than 30 times my average stake just three times. And in almost half of those seasons, I either lost or made a profit of less than 10 times my average stake.

And I can assure you that those three really big seasons stand out in my memory as times when I thought I was unbeatable. And those three seasons all feature at least one big winner that contributed a large percentage of the profit – often in fact a horse that I backed more than once in the season, for example Big Bucks in Jan/Mar/Apr 2009.

So I’d say well done and ‘accentuate the positive’.

AP

[Mr. Pilsen]

^^^ There you go, Mike, endorsed by the best.

[gamble]

I would like to thank
Mrs Betlarge
for putting up
with his moods
when he decided
to go public

[Glenn]

Lots of questions finally answered on this thread.

– What became of the Frankelin expedition?
– Whether anyone actually buys the Sleepy Hollow race passes?
– The likely source of the 500 bags on Big Bucks

I feel if this thread continues much longer, all the mysteries of the world will be solved.

I would like to thank Bet Large for sharing this with us. It’s been emotional.

[gamble]

It’s been emotional.

Sort of Betty Boops
with horses legs.
I saw her in Dizzy Dishes
in the nineteen thirties
and tried to get a bet
on but she said she
was into the silents
so I got me a nag home

[Nathan Hughes]

I see Billion has been promoting betlarge ‘pro-gambler’ – Final report elsewhere to self examination his own betting skills.

Well done Mike btw, prednisolone, cake, tacrolimus, horsey racing, tacrolimus, profit sounds like a good way of life to me……

Blackbeard to conquer the World

[stilvi]

Must admit to not having following this all the way through so apologies if these points have already been raised/addressed.

By my calculation 1071 bets at £200 a throw equates to £214,200 staked in five months.

Now, if I was able/inclined to place my bets at that level I doubt if in a short space of time I would have many accounts left so I am wondering where you are placing your bets?

£214,200 would be an amount many punters could only dream about. I am assuming that you must in a very comfortable financial position to begin with so what would be your motives for betting in the first place and does losing actually matter that much to you?

[Steeplechasing]

Stilvi,

Mike’s stakes were £200

per race

: he had numerous bets in each race.

[Gingertipster]

Stilvi,

Mike’s stakes were £200

per race

: he had numerous bets in each race.

Mike also said he considers one "bet" as

all

horses in the one race Joe.
So I took him to mean £214k too.

But Mike has also said in the past, most of his bets are on Betfair, so no problem getting on.

Value Is Everything

[betlarge]

Mike,

I think you are seriously underselling your achievement here. By the traditional measures of total net profit or return on investment etc, it looks pretty good to me. But the measure I prefer is to say that in 5 months, you have made a profit equal to almost 30 times your average stake (and of course I understand that’s a fixed stake for you).

As it happens, I’ve managed nearly the same return over the same five month period, in my case of approx 28 times my average stake this flat season. And I reckon I’ve had a brilliant season! But although the actual profit figure is bigger, that’s just because my average stake is bigger.

So I did some checking and I can tell you that in the last 40 seasons (20 flat, 20 NH), I’ve done better than 30 times my average stake just three times. And in almost half of those seasons, I either lost or made a profit of less than 10 times my average stake.

And I can assure you that those three really big seasons stand out in my memory as times when I thought I was unbeatable. And those three seasons all feature at least one big winner that contributed a large percentage of the profit – often in fact a horse that I backed more than once in the season, for example Big Bucks in Jan/Mar/Apr 2009.

So I’d say well done and ‘accentuate the positive’.

AP

Thank-you for your comments Alan.

I wouldn’t necessarily follow your view of looking at profit in terms of multiples of stake in my case, simply because my number of bets were so great. The percentage on turnover figure is the tell-all as far as I’m concerned.

To keep yourself in the game for so many years is an outstanding achievement and one I would not even attempt to emulate. However, if I continue to bet seriously in the near future I would be tempted to considerably reduce my number of bets and probably increase my stakes. In which case there’s every chance I would begin to gravitate towards the sharper end of the market.

I was very interested to hear (in another thread) that you had just 75 bets this year in the high-season of the Flat. I don’t think I could have so little ‘action’ and still maintain my enthusiasm to be honest but each to his own and anyway, your record speaks for itself.

Mike

[betlarge]

Good stuff Mike.

One mans 5900 in 5 months is another mans 28320 in 12 months, if he just doubles his stake. Bank doubled as well.

Playing with an unmarked card, your not going to beat the machine at BFSP in percentage terms by much more after deductions at your level of turnover, no matter how good you are. No way Jose.

Thanks Cav, good post.

Ah yes…"if he just doubles his stake"! Well, doubling your stake always leads to doubling your profit on paper, but anything that takes you out of your comfort zone is surely to be avoided. Although my overall profit was meagre, the one thing I was happy with was my staking. It felt comfortable, it felt right. That’s the only way I could do it.

Playing with an unmarked card, your not going to beat the machine at BFSP in percentage terms by much more after deductions at your level of turnover, no matter how good you are. No way Jose.

In 2009 I beat it by hugely more than this time round and over an even greater number of bets. I’m beginning to think that something’s changed on Betfair or I was just extraordinarily lucky.

Mike

[betlarge]

Now, if I was able/inclined to place my bets at that level I doubt if in a short space of time I would have many accounts left so I am wondering where you are placing your bets?

The overwhelming majority of bets were placed late into Betfair at BFSP. I did do some tracking of prices a couple of years ago comparing Best Odds Guaranteed with BFSP and found that the former would result in a +/- 9% advantage over BFSP.

However, that’s just fantasy if the layers would not lay me those prices consistently, all season, for my full stake. Which I’ve been told isn’t going to happen! (Never actually tried it, mind..)

Furthermore, that may be slightly disengenuous as I am never ready to place a bet early in the morning anyway and I use broad information from the live betting market right up to the off.

£214,200 would be an amount many punters could only dream about.

Turnover’s vanity; profit is sanity and there’s a world of difference between the two.

As far as I can remember the most amount of points I was down was about 7 or £1400. From that low point one is effectively turning over returned money so the headline figure of £200+k is completely irrelevant. Providing you could break even you could turn over a million quid betting in fivers in fairly short order!

Betting £214k is wildly different to having £214k in an account.

Mike

[betlarge]

Well done Mike btw, prednisolone, cake, tacrolimus, horsey racing, tacrolimus, profit sounds like a good way of life to me……

Yeah, well, it’s not a perfect world but it can do a good impersonation at times.

Mike

[Author]

Posts