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Tomorrow I morph seamlessly into my new career of holistic professional gambler (wide-brimmed hat, false cockney accent, cynical outlook etc) for the summer months at least.
PRETENTIOUS TWAT ALERT: The ‘holistic’ part refers to my preference of ‘floating above’ the race analysis trying to visualise the physical and mental state of the horses involved as suggested by a combination of form study and watching past races. I like to bet just before the off taking additional cues from the ‘feel’ of the market.
As you can probably guess, I’m not one for the component parts of pace/draw/time analysis and the (faux?) ‘sciences’ of form study. I can never quite forget that they’re horses in fields.
I’ve decided against trying to get my bets on with bookmakers at BOG and will be betting exclusively at BFSP or even SP if I think there’s an advantage there. If this is to be a viable ongoing venture then I’d rather spend the time analysing races than trying to strike bits of every bet with a dozen uncooperative layers. I would just find the whole business unedifying. Quite frankly, if I can’t make it pay at BFSP, I’ll quit anyway.
I think there are five possible outcomes here (with my percentage chance of each one occurring):
1. I make a mint. A fortune. I am a betting God. I stop posting on TRF because they’re all beneath me. I’m basically the Kim Jong-un of horse race betting. (0.001%)
2. I do well. I consider it a good reward for the effort put in and plan to continue. (20%)
3. I make some money but not enough to warrant the time and effort expended so reluctantly I quit. (35%)
4. I break even or lose an affordable amount. That’s the end of serious betting for me. At least I got it out of my system. (45%)
5. I lose heavily. I double my stakes. Then quintuple them. I hit skid row. I’m last seen outside Betfred’s in Warwick clutching my forlornly-written FOBT system. (0.001%)
Only one way to find out…
Mike
Best of British luck Mike.
May I be so intrusively rude and nosey and ask how much you betting bank is and what sort of percentage you will be staking on bets? Tell me to mind my own if you wish.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I hope you do really well, make a splendid living out of it, and get lots of joy and satisfaction (15%).
I concur with your holistic approach. There are so many instances where classical form study and time analysis are very weak in comparison with Sir Mark Prescott’s sense of humour, for instance. Or the profile of a horse which started life with five runs over 10 /12 furlongs for a top southern trainer, is bought by Dandy Nicholls, has six runs over 5/6 furlongs, and is then entered in a Thirsk handicap over a mile. Ah!. The joys of finding things out.
The physicist Richard Feynman wrote a book called The Joy of Finding Things Out. I guess you have already achieved that. I hope you now have the joy of making money from it.
Best of luck.
Best of British luck Mike.
May I be so intrusively rude and nosey and ask how much you betting bank is and what sort of percentage you will be staking on bets? Tell me to mind my own if you wish.
Hi Nathan, hope your health is good. Don’t worry, it’s not rude at all to ask.
I’ll be be betting £200 per race which will normally be a single win bet or a dutched win bet. My bank is a nominal 150pts i.e. I have a separate £30K for this venture. Let’s be realistic though, if it got to the stage where I burned through five figures (50pts down) I think I’d begin losing my nerve and would probably call it a day.
Mike
Good luck,I think not being under any financial pressure is half the battle.
Apart from a couple of big wins I have always been a number 3 on your list,but do not have the sense to pack it in.
Do it as long as you are enjoying it and I hope to read that it has gone well.If you go to back a certainty always buy a return ticket.
It sounds like a grand adventure. If you get time, keeping a diary might prove enlightening/entertaining/depressing/remunerative.
Good luck
Joe
Reading your opening post Mike, I’d say you don’t have the stomach for an extend losing run and you’ll drown.
But I wish you all the best and look forward to your updates.
Good luck to you.
Good luck with the venture and look forward to the reports
5/6 (or rather 1.83) not quite 2 but better than 3 I reckon, enough to warrant a continuing crack through the winter at Warwick and Ludlow
Good luck Mike – I suspect plenty of us fancy this path but don’t have the chutzpah to go for it.
And I agree, a regular warts and all update would be enlightening reading.
Do you have a target profit for the year (in pts)?
It sounds like a grand adventure. If you get time, keeping a diary might prove enlightening/entertaining/depressing/remunerative.
Good luck
Joe
Thanks Joe.
Yes, I think I’ll start a blog on this soon as I’d like some record of my ongoing thoughts and emotions as my much for my benefit as anyone else’s.
Mike
Reading your opening post Mike, I’d say you don’t have the stomach for an extend losing run and you’ll drown.
But I wish you all the best and look forward to your updates.
Good luck to you.
Thanks Cav.
I think you’re correct re an extended losing run. I fear I may become
frit
and get ‘defensive’ in my betting which is normally a conduit to pursuing poor-value selections. Be interesting to see how I cope (or not) with such reversals.
Mike
Good luck Mike – I suspect plenty of us fancy this path but don’t have the chutzpah to go for it.
And I agree, a regular warts and all update would be enlightening reading.
Do you have a target profit for the year (in pts)?
Thanks. I struggle with the idea of a ‘target’ to be honest Corm. I don’t even know how many bets I’ll have or at what price so it’s impossible to make even an educated guess. I have a gut feel that something around 8% on turnover would be an ambition, but what that equates to in points is anyone’s guess.
Mike
Good luck Mike.
As I’ve said before, I trod that path for one year about 20 years ago and although I did make enough to live comfortably, I gave up because I stopped enjoying it – it became too much of a chore.
My "problem" is I have a very low boredom threshold, so I probably wasn’t best suited to that sort of lifestyle.
Even in jobs I have really enjoyed I usually ended up looking for new challenges after about five years, which surprises me that
ORS Racing
has actually lasted six years, although I have to confess I’m getting bored with it now so I suspect it will not be around that much longer.
Professional gambling wasn’t for me but I know it works for some and I hope you are one of those it works for and, importantly, you don’t lose the enjoyment.
Tomorrow I morph seamlessly into my new career of holistic professional gambler (wide-brimmed hat, false cockney accent, cynical outlook etc) for the summer months at least.
PRETENTIOUS TWAT ALERT: The ‘holistic’ part refers to my preference of ‘floating above’ the race analysis trying to visualise the physical and mental state of the horses involved as suggested by a combination of form study and watching past races. I like to bet just before the off taking additional cues from the ‘feel’ of the market.
As you can probably guess, I’m not one for the component parts of pace/draw/time analysis and the (faux?) ‘sciences’ of form study. I can never quite forget that they’re horses in fields.
Mike
Good luck Mike and welcome to the joys and perils of betting for a living. Your approach seems the antithesis of my own.
Value Is EverythingBest of luck Mike! Have you thought about posting your bets on Daily Lays and Plays? Would be fascinating to see how you go about it!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Can I ask you Mike, are you at all religious?
Only I have a theory that all (or the vast majority) of successful gamblers are athiests/almost athiest. With an ability to come to a rational explanation/opinion of races/horses. NOT allowing sentimentality to sway their opinion (including subconsciously) and NOT forming an opinion because they want it to be true (again including subconsciously).
Value Is Everything
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