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Takes place at Warwick on Saturday, and is normally a pretty testing affair.
At the head of the market around 7’s and 8’s, is Merlins Wish, trained by Martin Keighley. Lightly raced, he’s only been out the first 2 in one of his 6 races, and he’s won his last 2. You could question what he’s actually beat, but I suppose he can only beat what’s put in front of him. No question he’s going the right way, and he merits plenty of respect. Keighley also has Any Currency entered. He sometimes gets a bad press, but he’s strung together 3 pretty acceptable efforts, and if still in the same mood, he’s not discounted.
Also near the head of the market, is the Willie Mullins pair, Vesper Bell, and On His Own. Vesper Bell was well fancied for The Becher Chase, but go no further than the first. He’s another who rarely runs a bad one, and it’s easy to forgive him his mishap at Aintree. On His Own is becoming a bit frustrating, but it may be his season is geared towards Aintree again…….as low as 8’s, even the 10’s doesn’t seem generous on his recent shows, but his backers deserve a change of fortune, and if he makes the trip, then you never know. I’ll avoid him for now though.
Hey Big Spender won this 2 years ago, and it was a sore one for me, as he was my clear second choice, but I didn’t have a penny on him…….at 14’s
Trainer had the Gold Cup in mind for him after that, but injury intervened, and he’s never really looked the same horse since, going out like a light on more than one occasion. He did win at Newcastle last month, but he had a hard race, as was shown with his run in The Welsh National. I can’t back him, but if he won, I’d be chuffed to bits for him. Of more interest would be Master Overseer, in the same ownership. Has a few bad runs in these stamina tests, but did land the 2012 Midlands National. There’s the possibility he’s handicapped to the hilt, but Pipe can get them ready fresh, and he’s of real interest. His last 5 runs read P1P1P…….he’s due a win 
I always find it hard to desert Venetia Williams runners, and she’s got Emperors Choice, and last time out winner Relax, entered. Based on the season she’s having……that’s enough for me to be wary of them.
Same Difference has had a very disappointing season (so far), but he’s slipped a few pounds, and it doesn’t require a leap of faith to see him get involved in this. Bound to pop up sooner or later. 20’s is bound to appeal to a few.
2011 Hennessy hero, Carruthers, gets an entry. Not seen since pulling up in The Midlands National, this looks a slightly more realistic target. Would be a bit of a surprise winner, but he still showed a bit of sparkle last year, and assuming he doesn’t decide to plant himself again (it did seem like a one off), supporters should get a run for their money, and at a price.
Shotgun Paddy is also near the head of the market, at around 10’s, though this will be different proposition to the small field Novice Chases he’s been taking in. I’m inclined to leave him for now, but I’m not doing it lightly, as he’s certainly a horse of potential.
Teaforthree is another high profile entry, but his supporters for Aintree will be looking for a better performance than he gave in The Welsh National, where he was really disappointing. I think he can bounce back……but maybe later in the season.
The two I like are Alfie Sherrin @ 10’s, and Loch Ba @ 14’s. I’m struggling to split the pair.
Alfie ran an absolute screamer in The Fixed Brush Hurdle, and I think Jonjo has been very careful with him. I don’t think we’ve seen anwyhere near the best of him, and he’s a strong fancy for this, and bigger targets later in the season. I think he’ll shine at Cheltenham, but worth noting that he’s still 33’s for Aintree, a good show here, will see that disappear.
Loch Ba is a horse I was hoping to see in the entries for this, and delighted to see he’s made it. Slightly disappointing in The Hennessy, however that was a tough gig, and this is more like it. I think he’s on a lenient mark, and based on several of his recent runs, he’s bang there……hopefully.
For those who like their outsiders, a quick word for Trigger The Light. He’s getting on a bit at 13, but he knows his way around here, and he’s won 4 times at the track. He’s been given chance by the handicapper, and he’s already jocked up, in fact, he’s the only one jocked up, with Wayne Hutchison on board. I can see him going well for a long way, though ultimately vulnerable to younger rivals. Might have a small interest in him though.
GL
Magic stuff once more, my friend, You really ought to get an award for the work you put into these posts. Fantastic.
Any Currency was the first one to jump out at me when the entries came out. Seems to be slowly returning back to form. Hope he hasn’t been reserving his best efforts for the cross country races.
Will no doubt be having another sentimental wager on Carruthers. Plenty high up enough in the weights and although this kind of race should suit, i’d be expecting him to perhaps be found out in the end. Hoping for a similar run that Auroras Encore (also top weight last year… i believe) ran last year. Just show the spirit is still there and let that mark slide for Aintree
Magic stuff once more, my friend, You really ought to get an award for the work you put into these posts. Fantastic.
Seconded, another brilliant post VTC.
Nice writeup again ,but oh for the race to still be the Brookebond Oxo over 4 miles +
Thanks Guys, appreciate it.
Joe, the only award I’m looking for is one for spelling and grammar, it takes me longer to go back in and correct my mistakes, than it does to type it
Let’s just hope we beat the weather this weekend.
Honeysdad, yeah I remember that format fondly, good old Bonum Omen in 83 springs to mind. If I remember correctly, the field was chock full of Aintree regulars that year.
I was very impressed with Royale Knight at Kelso but concerned about the overweight Tom O’Brien will have to put up, especially as the horse is out of the handicap as well. But trainer and jockey are doing very well at the moment and Dr Newland is very canny when it comes to plaving his horses. Also like the lok of Emperors Choice, Merlins Wish and, of course, Alfie. We might go on Saturday; haven’t been to Warwick for years and it’s a cracking race. Interested to see who richard Johnson rides; he’s got a great record at Warwick.
Loch Ba each way for me. Has an excellent record when running over 3 miles on soft ground and this step up in trip will suit.
A few of those mentioned are out of the picture now. It is a three way go at around 6/1 between Vesper Bell, Shotgun Paddy and Boyfromnowhere at the head of the market as I write this.
I backed Vesper Bell last time and didn’t get time to put my erse in the chair before he was out of it. If he’s not going to be a National runner, I have always thought he would be ideal for one of the big 4 mile races this year. He has most of his form on the gutters but he’s got time on his side and tons of stamina, so he’ll be my pick again on Saturday. I can’t see him starting much bigger than 6/1 and Mullins often attracts money on the day of the race so it’s 20pts on the hooter at 6/1
Of the others I would reckon 12/1 Loch Ba should beat SP and he’s got each way appeal at that price but just the one pick for me in this race.
Good luck all.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Loch Ba is excellent value at 12s, IMHO. He looks like he should get the trip well enough and he can go well in heavy ground. Fits the trends better than any other horse, too, and should be there or there abouts.
The other horse I like, and had to have had a bit of the 20s on him, is Master Overseer. It’s either feast or famine with this particular horse – as has been said, his form is P1P1P – but he is going to relish the ground (the softer the better), and we know he can definitely stay the trip.
Both of them are e/w for me (I don’t need the lecture, thank you very much).
FLD
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
Leave Alfie Sherrin well alone until the ground dries up a little. Although he has some respectable efforts to his name on soft, he is two times more effective when it is good or better.
Cheltenham and Aintree would be more likely for him.
Top class work again Bobby, I’ve kept my powder dry keeping an eye on Same Difference who I think is very well handicapped on his cracking win in the Fulke Walwyn at the festival last year and an equally good run in the Bet365, although I’ll always think of it as the Whitbread, where he was a game second.
His two runs since his appearance this year, well you can’t say they were anything other than disappointing, are a worry but if he is showing at home that he is coming well, he would have to be in with a cracking shout.
With NTD’s horses, especially in big handicap races like this, the yard normally put their money down when they think they are in with a shout. I have been watching the markets virtually hour by hour over the past couple of days when 20s were readily available, however in the last hour it is now down to only BetVictor offering that price (best priced 16/1 elsewhere) so I’ve charged in like Mrs BigG at the January sales and grabbed what I could.
It’s a tough and interesting race, with most in with a shout and a few old favourites that would take a hand if a glimmer of the glory days were to come back.
Good luck guys.
I’ve backed Loch Ba on his last 5 runs and much to the joy of those who fancy him I am going to desert him tomorrow.
The two that I’m burdening with my money are Boyfromnowhere and Noble Legend.
The former won over 3m4f at Fontwell in the heavy after previously finishing 22L behind fancied Shotgun Paddy off level weights.
Will be receiving 21lbs including Patrick Corbett’s claim and I give him a big chance.For a saver I will be risking Noble Legend. It has the distance to prove but shouldn’t mind the going and the trainer seems to
have hit form with three winners from her last 5 runners in 2014.Royale Knight; Loch Ba; Boyfromnowhere and Emperors Choice
. But not having a bet as the prices are all so stingy.
Same Difference and Victors Serenade for me, both at 14’s each way. Same Difference has been below par in his last 2 runs but I think he has a great chance if returning to near his Kim Muir level. Victors Serenade has a tendency to jump left and has only ran twice in the last 2 years, but I could see him getting in the shake up around here.
I looked at him but I’m a bit wary that he didn’t last home last time he attempted 28f. Alas a lot of dour stayers sem to be a bit quirky as well [just read that Old Vics’ can be edgy creatures even though they seem to stay forever]. If you were going to choose a horse on breeding alone it would be difficult to ignore Victors Serenade [Old Vic/Phardante]. You’ve got me worried now
Trainer had the Gold Cup in mind for him after that, but injury intervened, and he’s never really looked the same horse since, going out like a light on more than one occasion. He did win at Newcastle last month, but he had a hard race, as was shown with his run in The Welsh National. I can’t back him, but if he won, I’d be chuffed to bits for him. Of more interest would be Master Overseer, in the same ownership. Has a few bad runs in these stamina tests, but did land the 2012 Midlands National. There’s the possibility he’s handicapped to the hilt, but Pipe can get them ready fresh, and he’s of real interest. His last 5 runs read P1P1P…….he’s due a win 
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