The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Betfair to float?

Home Forums Horse Racing Betfair to float?

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 28 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #12470
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491
    #245494
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    Depending on the price that could be a good investment – bring it on

    #245501
    hoofhearted
    Member
    • Total Posts 248

    The old guff from Betfair at the time about the Premium Charge being a fairer charging system was just that …….. guff.
    I have no doubt that the real motive behind the introduction of the Premium Charge mechanism was to make the exchange an attractive proposition to investors in advance of a float.

    Well, the vulture hedge-funds and share investors will have the opportunity to get involved in a profitable venture; Andrew Black and other executives will trouser more millions; and Betfair will have the funds to war-chest its ambitions to globally dominate the gaming scene.
    Meanwhile, the peer-to-peer punters whose custom built the Betfair platform into the behemoth it is today will continue to get rolled-over in increasing commissions and charges..
    Lovely.

    #245503
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    Well, the vulture hedge-funds and share investors will have the opportunity to get involved in a profitable venture;

    and why not – that is what buisness is about – making a profit.

    As I said in my previous post it looks to be a potentially good investment, provided the initial offer price is a good one and the launch prospectus is satisfactory. I will certainly be seriously considering it.

    Andrew Black and other executives will trouser more millions;

    … and why shouldn’t they? They found a niche in the market, exploited it very well – therefore why should they not be rewarded for the initial risks they took?

    Meanwhile, the peer-to-peer punters whose custom built the Betfair platform into the behemoth it is today will continue to get rolled-over in increasing commissions and charges..

    Lovely.

    It is called supply and demand – as far as I am aware nobody is compelled to use Betfair and turnover strongly suggests there are sufficient punters who are prepared to accept their business model.

    If punters are being "rolled over" then why hasn’t a viable alternative appeared?

    They could attract the poor "rolled over" punters away from Betfair and they too could become rich millionaires.

    Of course it could be Betfair has managed to get it spot on and setting up a rival is not financially viable..

    #245508
    hoofhearted
    Member
    • Total Posts 248

    No issue whatsoever at this end about any business making a profit.
    My beef is with a company that ramps up the exploitation of its customers through increased — but unjustifiable — charges in order to make it an attractive proposition to potential suitors in the City.

    The only reason they have been spectacularly successful in the peer-to-peer betting environment is that they were fortunate to reach critical mass in liquidity ahead of the competition. If the injection of a projected £350 million into the pockets of Wray and Black is seen as a fair reward, then so be it. Just keep in mind, though, that this largesse is the product of a systemic over-charging of its customers incorporated in Betfair’s methodology And if they do achieve their ambition of further domination of the betting exchange markets then one can expect this exploitative over-charging to increase further. Monopoly = not in the best interest of consumers.

    "Why isn’t there a viable alternative"? But, yes, there is! The Purple do a fine job without any Premium Charge ……….. odds/prices in the ten minutes up to the "off" are competitive with Betfair’s. In-Running at Betdaq is the only area where due to lower liquidity a negative difference is noticeable. Otherwise, for the exchange bettor Purple is a viable alternative to the Betfair monolith …………. and with lower costs/charges.
    It will be a bad day for punters in general if Betfair becomes an even more dominant entity than it already is. .

    #245529
    Librettist
    Member
    • Total Posts 559

    Well said, Hoofhearted.

    I wonder whether it would be in the interests of WBX and Betdaq to join forces, or whether it would even be possible? It would certainly help liquidity.

    #245532
    douginho
    Member
    • Total Posts 1046

    Has to be remembered that Betfair is just one form of betting medium. I may be wrong but I suspect most punters still bet in betting shops or via online betting shop accounts, such as William Hill, Corals, Ladbrokes etc. As with anything where the consumer has a choice (and we all have a choice where we bet or if we bet) then Demand and Supply will ultimately settle what the commission charges and premium charges will be.

    If too many deem the commission charges, or more likely the premium charges, to be too much then they will stop betting with betfair and go elsewhere. Or at least thats what I would do.

    #245553
    Irish Stamp
    Member
    • Total Posts 3177

    Betfair now global – far more than just a betting exchange.

    #245562
    % MAN
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5104

    "Why isn’t there a viable alternative"? But, yes, there is! The Purple do a fine job without any Premium Charge ……….. odds/prices in the ten minutes up to the "off" are competitive with Betfair’s. In-Running at Betdaq is the only area where due to lower liquidity a negative difference is noticeable. Otherwise, for the exchange bettor Purple is a viable alternative to the Betfair monolith …………. and with lower costs/charges.

    In which case why are punters not flocking in their droves from Betfair to these other wonderful service providers?

    Betfair are obviously doing something right and / or Purple are not sufficiently exploiting the market.

    #245565
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5628

    "Why isn’t there a viable alternative"? But, yes, there is! The Purple do a fine job without any Premium Charge ……….. odds/prices in the ten minutes up to the "off" are competitive with Betfair’s. In-Running at Betdaq is the only area where due to lower liquidity a negative difference is noticeable. Otherwise, for the exchange bettor Purple is a viable alternative to the Betfair monolith …………. and with lower costs/charges.

    Agreed. I tend to get the impression exchange users don’t use, or perhaps more pertinently don’t admit to using Betdaq lest they be judged as ‘bit players’ who fiddle around with fivers. As you say the live markets are all but identical to Betfairs and liquidity is quite sufficient to get centuries on, if not grands. Even for ‘big players’ I see no reason why Betdaq shouldn’t be an adjunct to Betfair. And it strikes me the astute serial Betfairy concerned he runs the risk of qualifying for the Premium Charge (if that mysterious entity can be forecast with some degree of certainty) could divert some business temporarily to Betdaq.

    Admittedly, it’s wise – and often necessary – to adopt the patient drip-drip approach rather than plunging in but that’s a strategy I’ve always favoured anyway, being a poor reader of live-market fluctuations.

    Come my first anniversary betting with them this October I’ll have turned over a decent five-figures. If that qualifies as bit-playing fine, but it does me and is proof-positive IMO that lil’ purple are not an irrelevance.

    Just a win-singles bettor. No experience of laying, trading, arbing, in-running, place so wouldn’t know if Betdaq are lacking in those markets compared to Betfair.

    #245566
    hoofhearted
    Member
    • Total Posts 248

    Many have done so — cricket bettors as well as racing fans. And much of the Far Eastern soccer money is now trading on Betdaq.
    The difficult hurdle to cross is the weak(ish) In-Running horseracing markets on Betdaq ……… in large part due to the established integration of API’s (bots, trading software etc) with the Betfair platform. If criticism can be laid at the door of Betdaq management it is perhaps that they did not address the establishment of seamless integration of API’s until very late in the day , and thus missed the boat as it were.

    But all of this is by-the-by. Your position is that you welcome the flotation of the Betfair corporate heavyweight. My position is that this flotation is built on the backs of us early adapters of the Betfair model of exchange betting who are have been royally screwed in charges to make this flotation ever more attractive to City raiders.
    Best of luck to you if you do decide to join the goldrush.

    #245567
    Onthesteal
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Familiarity’s a bugger aint it? And the beneficiaries of such are usually just hard nosed chancers that need bringing into line IMO.

    Like racecourses that charge extortionate admission fees due to ‘demand’ at the current price, and will increase fees willy nilly knowing full well that joe punter and all his mates either can’t be arsed to vote with their feet or have just become too familiar, and like most of us, avoid change if at all possible.

    Supply and demand? My ass.

    People need to wake up and hit these shysters where it hurts.

    #245572
    hoofhearted
    Member
    • Total Posts 248

    [
    ………. adopt the patient drip-drip approach rather than plunging in but that’s a strategy I’ve always favoured anyway, Betfair.

    Heh heh, Drone, ……… that’s two of us, fella! :lol:
    Not being the greatest predictor of market movements myself, I also drip-drip my bet as well. Even if one of mine might be only a "twenty" Win I will often put it on in 2 quid increments! And that is part of the fun, too. :)

    My previous post, btw, was in reply to Paul O’s post ………. yours and mine were cross-posted.

    #245574
    hoofhearted
    Member
    • Total Posts 248

    And it strikes me the astute serial Betfairy concerned he runs the risk of qualifying for the Premium Charge could divert some business temporarily to Betdaq.

    .

    I do honestly believe that there is a lot of this going on ………… more than Betfair or the Premium Charge victims are prepared to admit!

    Anyone who is smart enough to have to pay the Premium Charge must also be smart enough to know how to avoid paying it!
    Backing a horse on Betfair that one expects to lose, whilst Laying it on Betdaq at the same price ( or preferably lower) can do wonders for your Premium Charge deductions, hah.
    (Losing on Betfair is the "new" winning on Betfair. :D )

    #245575
    Pompete
    Member
    • Total Posts 2391

    As has been shown with the introduction of the ‘Winners-Tax’ the current structure of the Betfair business model is flawed. The costs to the business of replacing ‘mug-money’ aren’t going to go away by expanding into new geographical markets.

    This won’t stop the wide-boys in the city getting involved of course, but I wouldn’t want Betfair as part of my Pension Portfolio

    #245576
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5628

    Heh heh, Drone, ……… that’s two of us, fella! :lol:
    Not being the greatest predictor of market movements myself, I also drip-drip my bet as well. Even if one of mine might be only a "twenty" Win I will often put it on in 2 quid increments! And that is part of the fun, too. :)
    .

    Yep it is fun. Not exchanges, but I remember causing a course bookmaker some mirth when having five bets with him on the same horse, three of which were at identical odds if memory serves. ‘Back again, you must be confident’ he smiled.

    Conversely I once staked all in one hand only to see it rapidly drift a couple of points. Caught the bookies eye, me with long face, a smug thumbs-up from him.

    A great game :)

    #245640
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I think Betfair will grow around the Casino side of the business, there will be more money there long term and that will be the driving force behind any flotation.

    The Premium Tax proves that some of the punters on Betfair are far smarter than Betfair themselves. Long term the racing side of it will plateu as the mug money levels off, if it hasn’t already. Sharks feeding off the sharks isn’t going to be viable as a business model.

    We’ll see what happens with the overseas betting markets but I don’t think I’ll be investing in the flotation myself. Growth will be controlled by foriegn government licencing agreements, open global internet access and international tolerance towards gambling as a harmless pastime.

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 28 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.