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I think what we have to bear in mind thedarknight is Phil Smith likes to compress the National weights as much as possible and favour the higher weighted horses, the first 3 in the National as well as Cloudy Lane all have hefty increases already so I can’t see much damage being done if they’re easily beaten by Denman.
It isn’t impossible those horses could turn up, yeats – I’m still not sure that anyone with any clue about campaigning a horse would choose the Betfair Chase as a target for a National horse though.
Even if they do turn up, will the likes of Comply or Die and King Johns Castle really add much to the Betfair Chase? The aim would be to finish 3rd and get beaten as far as possible – this surely isn’t the spectacle we want!
If I owned Kauto or Denman I wouldn’t be remotely tempted to go for the bonus and I believe Nicholls and Findlay that they won’t alter their plans on teh back of this.
In the unlikely event that it is won next year then it will be by a Cloudy Lane type horse imo – 3rd in Betfair, 2nd in Gold Cup, win National – in which case there is a large element of "so what?" about the whole thing…..Surely TDK Betfair have taken a calculated risk here? The key being the Betfair Chase itself.
There was talk of Denman possibly running in the National. Kauto Star is highly likely to run in the Betfair but has no chance of ever running in the National.
So if Findlay and Barber were tempted to have a go Betfair bring together Denman and Kauto Star again they have huge hype and massive publicity.
It would seem that may not happen but so what?
How many horses will now be attracted to running in the Betfair? National horses like as you say Cloudly Lane, or Snow Morning, Butlers Cabin, The recent Scottish Grand National winner who are all capable of getting a place in one of the lesser races at the Festival, so they will be tempted to have a go……….I think they will be queing up to run in the Betfair to try and get a place behind Kato Star if Denman doesn’t go.
Either way Betfair end up with more publicity and win the day…….they either have a clash of the titans or a much bigger field than last year. Last Year the only horse who could have possible one the million was Turpin Green being a stayer and he was out in the first round having finished 4th in the Befair…..I don’t think that is going to be the case this year.
The idea of the Million was to give lots of media coverage to betfair for setting up a new race. That race is fully established now in the calendar and a bona fide target for the best staying chasers. The trouble is, all the best staying chasers reside in the same yard and it will never be in the interests of the trainer to put all his eggs in that basket when he can aim one horse at Haydock, one at Wetherby/Newbury and the other at Down Royal. Therefore you get the penalty kick for whoever goes to Haydock with the opportunity to cherry pick the second leg where he’s unlikely to have to take on his stablemates until the Gold Cup.
Yes before this year the bonus was very winnable, and from a marketing point of view, it’s done it’s job for betfair so you can see why the £1m in the marketing budget could be better spent elsewhere by them, and the bonus this year imo is a gradual way of scrapping it.
I wonder if Betfair were asked by the Denman connections to change the conditions?
Considering Harry Findlay & Paul Nicholls dismissed the possibility of going for the million out of hand within 24 hours of the announcement of changes to the criteria, my guess would be no.
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