Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Betfair Chase 2007
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November 24, 2007 at 16:29 #126665
I think it would be a mistake for connections to take the view that My Way de Solzen didn’t stay. He settled nicely and jumped well in the main, and until proven otherwise I’ll put it down to needing the run rather than a lack of stamina. It is without question I think he went through that race like the third best horse.
Even if connections decide he’s not a 3m+ chaser, they will go Ryanair rather than Champion Chase I think. No way Alan King will aim both My Way de Solzen and Voy Por Ustedes at the same race when there is suitable different targets for the pair of them.
November 24, 2007 at 16:32 #126666Just watched replay and i can’t wait for em to go head to head again in King George
Hard to believe ED has no Grade One win to his name innit – some poor placement by jonjo
November 24, 2007 at 16:35 #126667And still the bookmakers underestimate Exotic Dancer. Paddy Power go 4/6 Kauto 6/1 Exotic Dancer for the King George. That’s a no-brainer isn’t it? As long as E/W is still a pleasure!
November 24, 2007 at 16:38 #126669And still the bookmakers underestimate Exotic Dancer. Paddy Power go 4/6 Kauto 6/1 Exotic Dancer for the King George. That’s a no-brainer isn’t it? As long as E/W is still a pleasure!
Shhh David
November 24, 2007 at 16:41 #126670AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
Just watched replay and i can’t wait for em to go head to head again in King George
Hard to believe ED has no Grade One win to his name innit – some poor placement by jonjo
Just very unlucky to be around the same time as Kauto is all. There aren’t that many top races he could avoid him in really.
Having said that, if it came up proper soft at Cheltenham next March, I think my money would be on ED.DJ
They’re also under-rating KS, at 5/4 for the King George.November 24, 2007 at 16:48 #126671Can you back the straight forecast ante-post?
November 24, 2007 at 17:15 #126672I personally think My Way De Solzen not having a run out before today was a big hinderance for him.
He needed to get a run in i think.
Kauto Star and Exotic Dancer both had a pipe-opener at Aintree the other week, where as the ground has gone against My Way’s preparation.
I wouldn’t write him off just yet, i still think he will run a big race in the King George.
November 24, 2007 at 17:17 #126674Didn’t Jonjo say that unless it came up very soft next March he didn’t think ED could beat KS? Well I disagree on the evidence today. He seemed to hit a bit of a flat spot coming down to the last and then stayed on again up the run in.
As mentioned earlier in the thread, I couldn’t understand the price he was, but only backed him for a place 9/4.
I wouldn’t rule out MWDS though yet either. As was mentioned nefore the Old Roan, he always needs his first run and travelled pretty well until blowing up (Stormin Norman suggesting he’d want to be on him with about 6 furlongs to go.
November 24, 2007 at 17:22 #126676I personally think My Way De Solzen not having a run out before today was a big hinderance for him.
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T’was a big ask for MWDS in those conditions FTO, against that kind of opposition
i’d deffo give another crack at 3 mile
KG Kingy and if he fails to last home you can drop back for Chelters
November 24, 2007 at 18:23 #126684It was half expected that MWDS would blow up today and thats why he was a rotten bet. I dont think stamina is the issue. Isnt there a school of thought that suggests (i know some trainers say this) that getting 3m over hurdles is tougher trhan 3m over the fences?
I would be interested in him for the KGV. Course would suit his tidy jumping (although KS jumped a lot better today than before i felt) and its a sharp 3m (which slightly contradicts what i say above maybe…)
Its a superb division and as much as i love KS it woudl be very fitting if exotic dancer could grab a really top prize.
November 24, 2007 at 18:31 #126685My Way De Solzen is a best priced 8/1 for the KG. As I mentioned in a previous post in this thread, I thought he’d be well beaten and then drift in the respective betting for both the KG and Gold Cup. I expected slightly better than 8s, though. Still a decent ew price. As I mentioned in my preview, the horse has never won on his seasonal debut. Actually, the level of form he displays on his return has always been far inferior to what he achieves during the remainder of the campaign. Don’t write him off just yet. He’s an incredibly talented individual who, IMO, does stay this trip over fences.
Kauto Star is a better jumper than some people think. He may get in close sometimes, but he’s very intuitive – a very clever jumper. I had to laugh at those who were dismissing him after one run. He’ll be turning eight in the New Year – should be past his prime then.
Exotic Dancer is getting closer and closer to Kauto!! Eight lengths in the 2006 KG, two in the Gold Cup, now he’s got within a length. A wonderfully consistent horse who enhances the reputation of Kauto Star.
This could be an historic rivalry that, hopefully, could continue for years.
November 24, 2007 at 19:13 #126692AnonymousInactive- Total Posts 17716
I seriously doubt whether MWDS will ever stay 3m in a truly run race at the very top level.
Say what you like about it being his seasonal debut, but his trainer clearly stated before the race that he was " In the high 90’s (%) fitness wise", and he was only a few pounds over last year’s racing weight. He also went out like a light today in the closing stages.
Even if were to stay, it is surely fanciful to see him beating either of the big 2, either this season, or for a while to come?November 24, 2007 at 19:27 #126697Didn’t My Way De Solzens trainer say he was "All speed" before the Arkle last year?
I’m not sure they know what year it is sometimes.
November 24, 2007 at 19:37 #126701That’s 4 shots Exotic Dancer has had at Kauto Star and came up short each time, although he has run admirably in defeat each time. I don’t think I could ever bet Exotic Dancer against Kauto Star. Only way he’s going to finish in front of the champ is if Kauto makes serious mistakes or the ground is bottomless. Great to have 2 horses like them going head to head for our entertainment
November 24, 2007 at 19:38 #126702I seriously doubt whether MWDS will ever stay 3m in a truly run race at the very top level.
Say what you like about it being his seasonal debut, but his trainer clearly stated before the race that he was " In the high 90’s (%) fitness wise", and he was only a few pounds over last year’s racing weight. He also went out like a light today in the closing stages.
Even if were to stay, it is surely fanciful to see him beating either of the big 2, either this season, or for a while to come?It’s hard to argue with Alan King. However, history shows that this horse always needs a pipe-opener. The level of form shown on his return to action is quite astonishing compared to what he inevitably achieves by the end of the season. Not only was this his seasonal debut, he was also competing against the top two chasers in the country, both of whom were race-fit.
The horses ability to stay 3mile 2furlongs at Cheltenham has, IMO, been exposed. He won the World Hurdle in 2006 over three, but he barely held on that day. Howvever, if this horse can stay three miles at Cheltenham (albeit over hurdles) then I think he can stay three miles at Kempton. I don’t think there’s sufficient improvement in him to beat KS or ED, but he could give them a decent race.
Alan King should give him another chance over three – he’s got nothing to lose, especially with Voy Por Ustedes tackling the best two mile chases. If the horse doesn’t stay in the KG? Well, they can always revert back to two miles for the Game Spirit at Newbury before the Queen Mother.
November 24, 2007 at 19:40 #126703I’m wet from the golf course but forcing down my humble pie.
Respect to DJ, your tissue was spot on even if you didn’t back the winner.
Respect to Exotic Dancer, who was a clear second best and did nothing wrong.
I wouldn’t write off MWDS at 3 miles just yet- I’m more in the "needed a run" camp than the non-staying one- what ever trainers say, they just can’t be sure they have a 3 mile chaser ready to run the full trip first time out and his history did indicate he might need it.
In my defence I’m needing the run myself after missing last season- once I’ve had a good blow I should be spot on for Christmas!November 24, 2007 at 19:45 #126705That’s 4 shots Exotic Dancer has had at Kauto Star and came up short each time, although he has run admirably in defeat each time. I don’t think I could ever bet Exotic Dancer against Kauto Star. Only way he’s going to finish in front of the champ is if Kauto makes serious mistakes or the ground is bottomless. Great to have 2 horses like them going head to head for our entertainment
ED has had ONE CLEAR SHOT at KS and that was today, he’s been beaten 1/2 length catching a tiring winner with every stride
Saying he can’t turn around 1/2 length is foolish, just like it was foolish thinking he couldn’t make up 2.5L, 8L or 20L when he hadn’t had a clear shot at KS
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