- This topic has 81 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 9 months, 1 week ago by
.
-
Posts
-
I have a feeling even though he’s still in the entries that Doddiethegreat won’t be eligible to run in this having only run 3 times over hurdles.
Actually scrap that he’s not a novice, lost his status in 2021
Me: Ohh, the Betfair Hurdle, this will be a great puzzle to solve with a load of lovely horses. Let’s get stuck in.
Me two minutes later: Oh, Mullins has some French horse in that nobody has ever heard of. That’s that then.
Yawn.
In these cases, with horses having no form in England or Ireland, is there a case to make them top weight instead of guessing a handicap mark?
Willie Mullins has never won the Betfair Hurdle yet the money for the French import is based on the trainer and not what the horse has done in France. I’m more than happy to take him on.
I still think Our Champ will run well, especially if/when Freddie Gordon is jocked up. The concern is the wet forecast. The horse would want good ground.
I will probably side with Faivoir if the ground becomes testing.
To be fair the Mullins horse has no form at all on the potential surface. That’s not to say he won’t be as effective or even better on it but we know Newbury can’t water and the ground is already good. There is some rain forecast but that could only be the amount of rain which would normally be used to water.
I think this is a proper race anyway on paper, there’s at least 5 or 6 in here probably well ahead of their marks. Two I won’t be interested in unless the rain really gets in are Iberico Lord and Lookaway. The Greatwood Hurdle was a really good race where the form has worked out amazingly well but it was run at a good clip on testing ground and the first two home are horses I think who want further now unless the ground is testing over 2M, Lookaway was staying on at the end of the Challow which can be an Albert Bartlett pointer, Iberico Lord got found out on quicker ground at Ascot. The speed horses like Luccia didn’t stay as well in the Greatwood but proved themselves better than the form at Ascot.
I know what you mean Quelle Facrce – I might have imagined it but I’m sure in the early nineties there were some czech trained horses that ran in the grand national and they were given automatic top weight for that reason – no runs in the UK/ ireland.
Maybe rules changed since then or that was specific to the national.
I guess that kind of rule would put off foreign trainers trying to run in UK races but there isn’t exactly lots of those anyway and mostly in level weights or conditions novice chases/ hurdles etc.
“In these cases, with horses having no form in England or Ireland, is there a case to make them top weight instead of guessing a handicap mark?”
Well….he had seven runs over hurdles (just one fewer starts over obstacles than Il Est Francais had before he came to take Kempton by storm) , four of those in handicaps. I’m sure times, videos and collateral form are available . There should be enough to go on.
I would favour Go Dante here. He’s a fine price right now, but I’m holding off until
he is actually declaredSaid in the RP today ocastle not sure to travel due to weather and owner unsure if the trip will be too sharp for him
‘I would favour Go Dante here. He’s a fine price right now, but I’m holding off until
he is actually declared”He won very easily Last time and still looks well treated off 129
Murphy has always rated him just taken him time to put it all together
As of 9 am, Mullins has not declared Ocastle des Mottes, but he has declared his other two entries.
And now at 9:50 am, he has declared the ante post favourite, which means that his third entry, Onlyamatteroftime, will be eliminated, leaving a maximum field of 24 runners.
Original topweight Hansard is the only one to opt out at the 48 hr stage.
“And now at 9:50 am, he has declared the ante post favourite”
Phew, that’s a relief :o)
…Almost as if connections did everything they could to get a better price for Ocastle.
Value Is EverythingEach way doubles on Spirit D’ Aunou and Brentford hope with Snipe in the GN trial next weekend.
Interesting to see what happens with Onlyamatteroftime, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Alvaniy scratched before 1pm tomorrow and replaced by him if there are no other withdrawals from the race before then.
Fantastic to see a full field for this too, really well supported which it deserves for the prize money on show, I was worried the race was in trouble with 16 and 14 the last two years.
I wasn’t expecting that many and I wasn’t expecting the ground to reach soft (good-soft in places) already either, that certainly changes my thinking on both counts. Bit of a puzzle again, lots of chances.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.