Betfair Chase 2014

[Gingertipster]

Betfair is a tricky race.

Dynaste

not out yet (although arguably best fresh and at this time of year. However, still has a bit to find over Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card. And not certain whether testing conditions at 3m1f (if it is actually 3m1f) will suit him. Something that could be said about many of these.

Silviniaco Conti

stays 3 miles around Kempton, but would he truly stay 3m1f in a heavy ground Betfair run at a good gallop? Did not appear to stay 3m2f110y at Cheltenham. Or was that more to do with temperament? Only had 3 lengths to spare over Argocat (third) at Aintree, having again seemingly going well before faltering on run-in. So although reappearance could be put down to needing the run; it’s worrying all last three runs found little off the bridle. Wouldn’t be surprised to see headgear or ear plugs.

Cue Card

made a lot of improvement from reappearance to Betfair Chase last year and needs to find even more this time. Although 2 miles might be a bit on the short side nowadays too. Stable are in much better form now than then too, which imo is a huge plus to his chances. Tizzards were also in poor form at the time of his uncharacteristic weak finish in King George. So the percieved stamina issue may not have been the deciding factor at Kempton after all. CC is the one I prefer of the big three.

Taquin Du Sieul

ran really well against Menorah in the Charlie Hall to run him to 4 lengths and can improve again. But along with those 4 lengths he’s also 5 lbs worse off with the Hobbs horse. Don’t see why TDS should be shorter than Menorah.

There is another one I like though,

Menorah

. I’ve been against this horse in most of his races. Hasn’t jumped well and inconsistent for so long. However, seems to have finally got the hang of jumping and that may well improve consistency. Also reappeared earlier this term which suggests all was not right last season. Test of stamina (heavy/strong pace) might be against him; but at 8/1 looks worth taking a chance on with a probable saver (or more) on Cue Card later on.

Forget

The Giant Bolster

this time of year, ran an indolent race first time up anyway.

Double Ross

appeared not to stay in the Charlie Hall, weakening late and

Medermit

doesn’t look good enough.

Harry Topper

imo does not jump well enough to win a normal grade 1 race on reasonable ground. But if it came up very testing could yet be worth a bet; as unlike the market principles is a proven stayer. It would also help if it was all of the official 3m1f trip. Stable’s runners are often under-estimated.

Already backed Cue Card and Menorah, still think they’re value but does look very testing at Haydock so I’ve had a reverse forecast on two of the three stamina horses Taquin Du Sieul and Harry Topper (this is not the right time of year for Bolster so left him out). It’s possible no other horse will stay if they go a good gallop.

Value Is Everything

[Steeplechasing]

Value is at the long end of the market, I think, with TGB, Medermit, Double Ross

[Steeplechasing]

Silv Conti…can only assume he’s best on a flat track on deep ground. Maybe cheekpieces helped, but I’ve never been able to figure him out.

I’m afraid poor Cue Card left his career at Kempton, whatever happened to stop him that day as though he was shot

[grey dolphin]

Taquin du Seuil barely jumped a fence. Incomprehensible.

[Gede]

Silvi

simply wasn’t the same horse than he was at Wetherby. He considerably improved and seems now to be back to his best.
What happened to

Taquin

? He never seemed to be at ease and was retired from the race quite a long way from home..
I’m happy with

Menorah

‘s performance. I thought he might be able to do it, but this was a stamina affair eventually.

[stevecaution]

Silviniaco Conti looked a different horse today. Perhaps he needs soft ground to be seen to best effect.

Highly respectable efforts from my two against the field in 2nd and 3rd places but there is little to suggest either can turn it around later in the season with today’s winner.

Cue Card started well enough in the race but you never felt he was going to dominate in the way he sometimes can and when he had company up front his jumping didn’t look as slick and he was beaten from a fair way out.

Taquin De Seuil was short enough in the betting for me and I was a little surprised to see so many people fancying him, with Nick Luck, for one, seemingly very bullish just before the start of the race.
It seemed like they were quite keen to get him up into a position where he could challenge Cue Card et al up front but his jumping wasn’t great. Even allowing for the fencing errors, he put up a very poor show and looked out of his depth today.

Silviniaco Conti is jt fav for the King George with Simonsig and I reckon it is pretty easy to pick which one of those horses is the value at 5/1 when you consider what they have done thus far in their careers.

Get your Christmas paid by the bookies and wire in!

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[homersimpson]

Looks like Paul Nicholls’ optimism was correct after Wetherby and he really did need the run. Definitely had everything his way today. Still has to be a big doubt whether he will ever win a Gold Cup though.

[yeats]

I’m afraid poor Cue Card left his career at Kempton, whatever happened to stop him that day as though he was shot

You’re too negative steeplechasing (I see you even made the RP today ) especially as he’s one of your favourite horses.
As the trainer pointed out after, it’s small margins in these races, look how well beaten S C was at Wetherby.
This race could have come well quick enough on the ground after Exeter.

They’ve got to forget about the Gold Cup and go for the Ryanair after the King George and I don’t think dropping him in a bit would do any harm, he’s plenty enthusiastic enough ridden from the front.

[Steeplechasing]

Fame at last!

I kind of hope you’re right, yeats, but I suspect something happened at Kempton which will continue to dog him when he comes under pressure (I don’t think it’s a trip issue).

He’s either bleeding or his breathing has gone, would be my guess.

He’ll always be a favourite of mine. I’m just sorry he never reached his full potential, as he would have done at Kempton had he not suffered that calamity. But I haven’t bet him this season and am pretty sure I never will again.

[The Ante-Post King]

But I haven’t bet

Cue Card

this season and am pretty sure I never will again.

Oh dear Joe,he’s a horse I associate with you but if I was you I wouldn’t give up on him.I remember all too well he made ‘My’ horse

First Lieutenant

look average in the Ryanair of 2013,I do believe its a trip issue with him and a drop back at Cheltenham for the Ryanair or even the Champion chase (One Man) could see value in the 16’s on offer for the former at least.

[stevecaution]

I thought Colin Tizzard was trying to convince himself, as much as anyone else, when he stated that you could have run the Betfair Chase several times and gotten a different result each time.

In my eyes Silviniaco Conti looked like he was going to win it from some way out and he’ll go off a warm favourite against the same horses if they meet again on similar ground.

The trainer said that the jockey stated that Cue Card just got tired but it seems odd that he didn’t find that a problem in the same race last year and it doesn’t explain why he went from dominating in the King George to struggling in such a dramatic manner.

The Gold Cup would be madness for him to contest and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the King George, assuming he goes there, after last year’s capitulation in the closing stages.

It may seem negative but I share Joe’s concerns that the horse might have lost something of his spark.

Cue Card is 12/1 for the King George and 20/1 for the Gold Cup and I’m not of a mind to back him for either race.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[SirHarryLewis]

Cue Card may not be in top form but overall taking into account where he finished relative to Dynaste and the fact that it seemed to be run more under staying conditions this year, I thought he did ok. I just think 3miles is at his very limit.

SHL

[Author]

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