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btw rich sorry for blocking u mate, we all make mistakes
i’m starting to have a feeling that long run will win as well. just you look at what he had to beat last year with kauto, who’s one of the best chasers ever, and silviano conti and weird al don’t exactly match up, do they?
besides you compare him looks-wise to siviano and its like a different ball game, like little vs large. good u will always beat a little un sort of thing.
Good big un will always beat a good little un I mean.
as for the whole kauto debate, it’s been done to death now, but i’m probably denmans biggest fan and even i’d have to concede that kauto was perhaps a more consistent horse and who was more tested over a much more variety of distances than his stablemate (you couldn’t imagine denman winning the tingle creek for example)
even if denman was every bit as brilliant on his day.
The worsening conditions at Haydock are starting to make me lean in the direction of Long Run as well. Very fickle me you know
Elgransenor…Denman was a front-runner who could inject pace into a race at any time !
Of course he was versatile too and won over the shorter distances over hurdles,and everyone is aware he was never the same horse after his debilitating heart problems and had proved superior to Kauto Star when they first met,and even did the same twice later on when nowhere near his brilliance shown when unbeaten over fences up to age 8 inclusive.
Indeed, I agree with bozlike,having been involved in 3 Syndicates previously over the years,the only benefit, besides the pride in owning the horses themselves, are the free entrances to the tracks !
Kauto Star is not the best chaser seen in the past 40 years.His own stablemate,Denman,proved superior three times out of the four they met and it would have been all four but for suffering from his debiliating heart problem.
Welcome AS,
You’ve got a lot to learn.
You reckon Denman was better than Kauto Star.
Horses are not machines. First time Kauto Star got beaten by Denman – KS came within a short head of being beaten by Neptune Collonges for second spot.
Is KS really only a short head superior to NC? Of course not, KS ran well below his best.
Second time Denman beat Kauto Star – It is obvious KS was a long way below form, struggling even before falling – when Denman was also beaten by Imperial Commander. KS didn’t run to form.
Is Denman inferior to an in-form IC? Questionable, although I’d say not.
Third time Denman beat KS they were both beaten by Long Run. Is Denman really a 7 lbs inferior horse to Long Run? No, but you did say Denman wasn’t at his best after the age of 8 so I’ll give you that one… Yet you still use the fact Denman beat KS in that race as a reason for believing the former is the better racehorse. No, they both ran below form. Unless you really believe KS is only a nose superior to What A Friend?
But of course, Denman can run below form any amount of times, yet every time KS did so – it proves he wasn’t as good as Denman. Nah!
Judge the two horses at their best AS. Denman was a Great horse, but Kauto Star was Greater.
Value Is EverythingI agree with you, ArkleSupreme. Denman was clearly a greater chaser at three miles and beyond than Kauto Star. I don’t think there is much debate over that, especially with many of Kauto Star’s highly-rated performances now easily downgraded in hindsight. Given a chance to re-evaluate his 2009 King George and second Gold Cup, slightly more conservative ratings would be given than the ones made at the time.
Although GT is right in observing that Kauto Star only held off Neptune Collonges by a nose in 2008, that was because Kauto Star got outjumped and outstayed by Denman. NC’s dour stamina closed the gap there. All races between Denman and Kauto Star after 2008 are irrelevant as Denman’s riding style was changed and the horse was a lesser force.
Anyway, onto the Betfair Chase. I expect Long Run will be fully fit for this race as Nicky Henderson reportedly regrets leaving him undercooked last year. Silviniaco Conti will also handle the ground, though, as a son of Dom Alco. I don’t trust a horse with such a weak constitution as Weird Al, so think it is between the ‘big two’ in the market.
The ‘decline’ of Long Run is greatly exaggerated. He did not have a poor season last year and would have almost swept the board without a rejuvenated legendary chaser in his way. This year’s group of second-season chasers looks exceptional, though. They are a very special group.
Silviniaco Conti
is my choice.
I was sufficiently impressed by Silvianco Conti’s last run and as such, I have backed him to win this.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Well said, Young Fella…someone else not caught up in the over-hype surrounding Kauto Star !
Neptune Collonges actually did remarkably well to bounce back and win a Grand National as he was also injured after the 2008 Gold Cup and,like Denman,was not the same horse in the 2009 race !
Himself,any chance you can download that photo of the Greatest onto my profile ?
I still side with Long Run, tomorrow ,though if it comes to the jockeys fighting out the finish then Ruby will be too strong for Mr Waley-Cohen !
It will be interesting to see what the final going is reported as.
I still love Kauto Star and think he is one of the best ever,
ArkleSupreme
. Denman was a better staying chaser at his peak, though.
It will be interesting to see how The Giant Bolster fares tomorrow. If he is fit, we might see what last year’s Gold Cup form is worth.
Going for longrun at 25/1 to win the BF KG and Gold cup, if back to his best and he is still relativly young i can see that happing. Having said that will be taking 7/1 on conti for the KG, though will be going for G crus as well in that.
For the getfair i give conti the edge but both SC and LR are to short thus will as stated will be taking the 7/1 for KG and 25 for the treble as those will be cut significantlt should either put in an impresive performance which i could see happening.
I agree with you, ArkleSupreme. Denman was clearly a greater chaser at three miles and beyond than Kauto Star. I don’t think there is much debate over that, especially with many of Kauto Star’s highly-rated performances now easily downgraded in hindsight. Given a chance to re-evaluate his 2009 King George and second Gold Cup, slightly more conservative ratings would be given than the ones made at the time.
Although GT is right in observing that Kauto Star only held off Neptune Collonges by a nose in 2008, that was because Kauto Star got outjumped and outstayed by Denman. NC’s dour stamina closed the gap there. All races between Denman and Kauto Star after 2008 are irrelevant as Denman’s riding style was changed and the horse was a lesser force.
Anyway, onto the Betfair Chase. I expect Long Run will be fully fit for this race as Nicky Henderson reportedly regrets leaving him undercooked last year. Silviniaco Conti will also handle the ground, though, as a son of Dom Alco. I don’t trust a horse with such a weak constitution as Weird Al, so think it is between the ‘big two’ in the market.
The ‘decline’ of Long Run is greatly exaggerated. He did not have a poor season last year and would have almost swept the board without a rejuvenated legendary chaser in his way. This year’s group of second-season chasers looks exceptional, though. There a very special group.
Silviniaco Conti
is my choice.[/quo
Regarding the Kauto star and denman debate I agree Kauto was not a stayer it was his class and superior jumping ability that got him theGold cups, while denman was a powerful stayer, so in that aspect if we are talking about sraying its denman but on class kauto has the edge.
Why should Kauto Star have the edge on class ?
Denman was unbeaten over fences prior to his debiliating heart problems and who’s to say that would not have continued if that misfortune had not happened to him.
In contrast,Kauto Star had already been beaten over fences before their epic first Gold Cup meeting and was beaten several times in his career without any excuses,albeit he was brilliant at Kempton in winning his five King George races.
No-one can be certain he would have beaten Denman anywhere if Denman had not had his problems after his Gold Cup win.
Unfortunately,it is something we can never know….though we do know the results of their four meetings together !
Why should Kauto Star have the edge on class ?
Denman was unbeaten over fences prior to his debiliating heart problems and who’s to say that would not have continued if that misfortune had not happened to him.
In contrast,Kauto Star had already been beaten over fences before their epic first Gold Cup meeting and was beaten several times in his career without any excuses,albeit he was brilliant at Kempton in winning his five King George races.
No-one can be certain he would have beaten Denman anywhere if Denman had not had his problems after his Gold Cup win.
Unfortunately,it is something we can never know….though we do know the results of their four meetings together !
Timeform Chasers And Hurdlers ratings
06/07 Kauto Star 184+, Denman 161p (while a novice and learning)
07/08 Kauto Star 182, Denman 180p (after winning the Gold Cup)
08/09 Kauto Star 184, Denman 171+ (after his heart problem)
09/10 Kauto Star 191, Denman 181 (better rating than before the heart problem)
10/11 Kauto Star 166, Denman 175 (in his 10-11 year old season on the downgrade).
11/12 Kauto Star 179 (as an 11-12 year old), Denman retired.In hindsight, I wonder whether Kauto Star was given too big a Timeform rating for winning the 2009 King George by a "distance". However, it was still probably his best performance, and there are many other performances where the form (one horse compared to the next, compared to the next etc) does add up. It’s far too simplistic to compare the two Nicholls star’s ability on just one run a year at one track, where in no race did both runners show their best. To figure out which horse had the best form abilities must be judged on their best form (put up against any horse at any track).
There is a question whether Kauto Star was better at 3m2f+/Cheltenham than Denman. A hard one to answer. KS only really showed that brilliance once at Cheltenham, winning the 2009 Gold Cup from an admittedly below form Denman. However, the third and fourth Exotic Dancer (beaten a total of 15 1/2 lengths) and Neptune Collonges (beaten 21 1/2) suggest Kauto’s performance an outstanding one. Every other Cheltenham start made by KS can be rated well below what he produced elsewhere (particularly Kempton).
To say Denman would’ve been a better horse without the heart problem is xxxxxxx against the wind. Wishfull Thinking might have been capable of beating the lot of them had he not met with bad breathing problems. But can’t be rated as doing so. It’s just "wishful thinking". Denman even won a Hennessey after that Heart problem and finished 3rd in another, giving masses of weight away to two Gold Cup prospects in Diamond Harry and Burton Port.
Fact is for whatever reason Denman did not improve his form significantly, so can not be rated better than Kauto Star.
Value Is EverythingWhy should Kauto Star have the edge on class ?
Denman was unbeaten over fences prior to his debiliating heart problems and who’s to say that would not have continued if that misfortune had not happened to him.
In contrast,Kauto Star had already been beaten over fences before their epic first Gold Cup meeting and was beaten several times in his career without any excuses,albeit he was brilliant at Kempton in winning his five King George races.
No-one can be certain he would have beaten Denman anywhere if Denman had not had his problems after his Gold Cup win.
Unfortunately,it is something we can never know….though we do know the results of their four meetings together !
Yes I may be inclined to agree that if we look at the gold cup at Cheltenham Denman would win my vote, but if we go to distance any distance from 2 mile to a flat 3mile course ala KG kempton Kauto star would take my vote migth even go as far to say easily. Cheltenham is ideal for Demnans strenghts while it is not ideal for kauto hence I say his class got him those two Gold cups, where the situation to be reversed and the situation was ideal in Kautos favour……
Both greats horse we cannot argue that though.
Gingertipster….for Timeform to have rated Kauto Star above Denman after the 2007/8 season is bordering on the ridiculous as he trounced him fair and square by 7 lengths in that season’s Gold Cup, and, whatever happened afterwards had no bearing as we all know Denman was never the same horse !
We can NEVER know who would have won for sure had they met on other tracks besides Cheltenham and Newbury where Denman had already proved himself.
Timeform do not get it right every time anyway….two examples are on the Flat where they placed Nijinsky above Sir Ivor and Dancing Brave above Golden Fleece….both Lester Piggott and Pat Eddery who rode them would disagree, vehemently ,about those assessments !
Gingertipster….for Timeform to have rated Kauto Star above Denman after the 2007/8 season is bordering on the ridiculous as he trounced him fair and square by 7 lengths in that season’s Gold Cup, and, whatever happened afterwards had no bearing as we all know Denman was never the same horse !
Kauto Star didn’t run to form when beaten 7 lengths by Denman AS.
You keep on about Denman’s problems after that run, yet never mention the fact Kauto Star had a training setback less than a month prior to that 7 length defeat.
Selective excuses.
Value Is EverythingWe will just have to disagree,gingertipster, as Paul Nicholls himself said there were no excuses for Kauto Star’s defeat in the 2008 Gold Cup,he went off 5/4 favourite and Ruby Walsh was shell-shocked at the end of the race as he realised he had picked the wrong one !
Obviously,the respective SPs of the two horses in the following years race said it all,with Kauto Star odds on and,a much inferior, Denman a 7/1 shot,and, after that race Nicholls was thrilled as to how well Denman had run considering what he had been through in the previous summer.
This debate could run forever…back to the subject matter and more rain was falling at Haydock today,and, tomorrow’s races really will become a lottery there.
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