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What struck me yesterday was that Kauto’s victory was so complete, so dominant that I began to think that another explanation was required to explain his defeats at Kempton & Cheltenham last season. Old age had been convenient until yesterday afternoon.
I accept Long Run will be fitter and more mentally ready by Christmas and for the Festival and he was a bit below his best yesterday but Kauto also seemed much better.
I took a look at the Going Stick Archive for Kauto’s last 10 or 12 runs and (whilst making some assumptions for his 2 Down Royal and 1 Punchestown run) there does look to be a strong correlation between Kauto’s wins and softer ground, in the last three years.
It was 6.2 at Haydock yesterday as opposed to a very firm 8 for the Gold Cup. I remember reading someones opinion that Long Run could still be a doubtful stayer even after the Gold Cup win, as the fast going really helped him get home. I didnt go along with that theory at the time.
I thought he was going to pick up Kauto for most of the straight yesterday and it was only just before the last that it became clear he wasn’t. Weird Al closing in on LR on the run in as Kauto pulled majestically away.
Trouble is…blowing up through not being fully fit and fading through not staying fully on slow ground over a fast run 3 miles can look very similar.
Not sure which it is, to be honest, but I think my KG and GC bets will be ground dependent.Well, someone’s eating crow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4nB7SLHul5AWow, Kauto has better jumping form than many showhunters.
The point is, the way you beat Long Run is by serving it up to him. If you keep jumping alongside him, he screws up and, like all bullies, he doesn’t like someone who can stand up to him.
Fantastic post.
But he took Kauto on at Kempton last year…SWC put him upsides KS whenever possible and ultimately outjumped and outgalloped him. Don’t think that theory holds up personally.
He never travelled at Kempton in January, and was proven to have been wrong on the day.
Neptune Collonges was injured in one Gold Cup, so that would have made a difference to the finishing distances.
That was never confirmed as a reason what was said was he
may have
sustained the injury in the race.
After the race it took 4-5 days for Neptune Collonges to show any signs of injury and as it was a tendon injury it must be very doubtful.
That aside Kauto also beat Exotic Dancer further than he ever had.
It’s all down to whether you believe that Neptune Collonges is only a neck inferior to Kauto Star or is he 15 to 20 lengths. inferior.
If anyone has a problem working that out I would advise giving Mensa a miss
For all the people having suggested Kauto Star should be retired or just isn’t that good anymore, please give it a rest. The horse has just beaten some of the best young chasers around fair and square and in pretty much record time.
Whether Long Run wasn’t fit enough or the jockey is to blame shouldn’t detract form the fact that by far the best horse won on the day. It’s about jumping fences and the fact Long Run missed a couple is just plain tough **** in my opinion. How many horses have we all backed and they fell at the last? Did we get our money back? No we didn’t, the horse that jumps wins the race.
I have been a Long Run fan from what he showed last season, and yeah he may have beaten Kauto Star fair and square in the Gold Cuop, but Kauto bled at Kempton, and I reckon he should be given one last shot at a King George. What if Long Run beats him and comes second? Would that be so disgraceful so as to retire the old boy? Coming second in any King George is no mean feat, and after Saturday, who’s to say he won’t show the new kids on the block that breaking yet another record was no fluke. The horse is a legend plain and simple, and having Star is his name is about as apt as you can get.
Kauto Star is some racehorse and let him do what he does and as long as he wants to.
I can see Long Run, Kauto Star and yes…Mster Minded fight out the finish of the King George….come to think of it, what has Master Minded done as well that so many should knock him? Too great horses plain and simple, and yes Long run is too, but lets share the credit shall we?Kauto seems a different horse this year, so my misgivings were unfounded. He may go backwards from now on, but we don’t know. He could just as easily go forward. I remember a 14 year old chaser improving out of all recognition that year, and winning several good races. Can’t remember his name, unfortunately, though someone else might.
Maybe last year, Kauto felt he needed a sabbatical, unilaterally. Good thinking Kauts. It’s common enough for horses to have a year’s break, after a good year, and it makes sense.
Though some horses are machines and just keep on winning Grade 1s without any respite. Night Nurse springs to mind. Night shifts toughen you up. Go to work in the dark and come home in the dark. Who needs vitamin D!!!
Was it a horse trained by Gordon Richards called Better Times Ahead? I thought he did really well when he was quite old….[only a shot in the dark…]
No, I don’t think so. I think it was a single two-syllable word. Just possibly, two words.
It’ll bug me now! Better Times Ahead ran 69 times and was placed in 39 of those races, never fell but had a few UR’s and PU’s. Won 2 races at Perth at the age of 15 and
led Gordon richards funeral cortege. Wonder if he’s still with us [25 if he is]. Might have to ‘phone a friend’ if no one comes up with the answer. Sonny Summers, Willie Wumpkins….
Looking back at the race again, it’s hard to ignore the fact that Kauto was a very impressive winner on the day and, whilst both Long Run and Diamond Harry will improve for the run, there can be no excuses.
Firstly Time For Rupert, then Diamond Harry, and finally Long Run all challenged Kauto for supremacy at some stage of the contest and all of them came off second best.
It would have taken a monumental effort from either Long Run or Diamond Harry at the very peak of their powers to beat Kauto, and they would have needed to smash his new official course record to do it.
Long Run will improve for the run, no doubt, but he also had a hard race and the Boxing Day showpiece will tell us just what he is made of – he was firmly put in his place on Saturday and will need to jump with the same fluency as he did in last years race to have any chance.
Diamond Harry is arguably best when fresh but, with hindsight, it was still alot to ask of a horse to return after nearly a year off and a recent setback to beat two outstanding chasers. That was only his fifth start over fences and he was arguably the only one to match Kauto in the jumping department when matching him stride for stride and, along with the eventual winner, was the only one still on the bridle turning in.
He kept on admirably down the straight and is certainly better than that. In my opinion, he is very much the dark horse for major honours this season.
Weird Al was given a very smart ride from Timmy Murphy. He allowed his rivals to take each other on and picked up the pieces down the straight. He’s a sound jumper, a solid stayer and uncomplicated, but he lacks the class of the aforementioned trio. Still an each-way player for Cheltenham in March.
The track may not have suited Time For Rupert, but he looks a shade below top class, in my opinion. He’s another sound jumper with a solid attitude and everything from his breeding, to what we have seen on the racecourse, tell us he will stay forever.
I would seriously consider the Grand National if he were mine. I would return him to the smaller obstacles for the remainder of the season and protect his current mark (10lb below hurdle rating) and target Aintree.
He has more chance of winning a Grand National than a Gold Cup, in my opinion.
Grimes; was it Mac Vidi? I’ve just found an old thread
about him. And ivanijca offered to copy me a dvd of him, and must think I’m very rude as I don’t think I replied. I’d love to see it.
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