- This topic has 34 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 19 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Looks a really interesting race.
I’m tempted by Our Vic, 3 miles 1 on a flat track, small field should be absolutely perfect for him. Always capable of throwing in a shocker though and he hasn’t yet so far this season.
Exotic Dancer, class act. Faster ground tomorrow and a sharper track. lovely horse has to be respected.
Turpin Green – Softer ground would probably suit him better but can’t be ruled out.
State Of Play – Superb win at Aintree last year. Conditions should suit but hasn’t won at this level yet.
My Will – Probably out of his depth in this league.
<br>Am I mad being tempted by Our Vic?
I don’t think you can ever put too much faith in Our Vic, as he’s just as likely to dog a race as he is to perform. He’s the huffiest, moodiest bugger I’ve seen at that level of racing. At his best, he can beat anybody; trouble is telling when and if that best will come. I had him in the Ryanair as an absolutely cert if he turned up; trouble was he only turned up the last furlong and a half! So he’s in my bad books at the moment.
I think the race tomorrow will be run ideally for Exotic Dancer; and he’ll love this course and distance. If I knew Our Vic wasn’t going to quite run his race tomorrow, I’d be absolutely lumping on McCoy’s charge.
Quote: from Friggo on 8:03 pm on April 11, 2007[br]I don’t think you can ever put too much faith in Our Vic, as he’s just as likely to dog a race as he is to perform. He’s the huffiest, moodiest bugger I’ve seen at that level of racing. At his best, he can beat anybody; trouble is telling when and if that best will come. I had him in the Ryanair as an absolutely cert if he turned up; trouble was he only turned up the last furlong and a half! So he’s in my bad books at the moment.
I think the race tomorrow will be run ideally for Exotic Dancer; and he’ll love this course and distance. If I knew Our Vic wasn’t going to quite run his race tomorrow, I’d be absolutely lumping on McCoy’s charge.
<br>I backed Our Vic in the Ryanair too.
The impression I got was that he struggled with the pace a bit at the shorter trip but stayed on really well and would’ve won if he hadn’t had to swerve round a faller. He came out the best horse at the weights.
Trip and track are better for him tomorrow.
I agree entirely though, you never quite know what you’re going to get from this horse.
State Of Play would worry me and you can’t ignore Exotic Dancer.
(Edited by Flash at 8:08 pm on April 11, 2007)
Quote: from Flash on 8:07 pm on April 11, 2007[br]
The impression I got was that he struggled with the pace a bit at the shorter trip but stayed on really well and would’ve won if he hadn’t had to swerve round a faller. He came out the best horse at the weights.
See, I got the impression he was taking the huff, and it took a good deal of whipping before he got his ar$e into gear, and just a shade too late. Maybe I’m just a sore loser. ;)
Personally, I don’t think State of Play has what it takes. Remember, when he won at Aintree last year by an eased 16L, he was getting 24lbs from the second, Lacdoudal. Very good formline, but taking into account that he’s up against the GC 2nd and 3rd tomorrow (albeit he was 6th), I doubt he can beat all those rivals.
<br>Flash,
You can take encouragement from Our Vic’s record in chases away from Cheltenham – it reads 1-1-P-1-1.
Not so encouraging is the fact that the ‘P’ was in this race two years ago, but that followed an equally poor display at Cheltenham.
AP
- Total Posts 17716
Personally, I think 2/1 Exotic Dancer has to be one of the ricks of the season. <br>This ‘Cheltenham horse’ thing is patently rubbish, as 2 good runs at this track and his King George 2nd clearly show.<br>Surely he should be odds-on?
2:35 Aintree – BETFAIR BOWL CHASE GRADE 2 (CLASS 1)<br>Decent field for this Grade 2 Event, and with Our Vic in the field, it’s sure to be a good race. Looked to be overly quirky when last seen in the Ryanair, seemingly tailed off for making a rejuvenated effort into the straight, he narrowly failed to pull back Taranis and secure the spoils. On that showing I’d be inclined to pass him over this time, until I can be sure about his attitude. Exotic Dancer seems to run best on galloping tracks, and his previous form at Aintree hasn’t really amounted to much. Not sure this will be ideal for him tomorrow and he looks too short at the prices. Turpin Green ran a massive race in the Gold Cup coming third after being regressive throughout the season, has good form and an excellent record at Aintree (3 runs, 2 wins, 1 second), not sure My Will will enjoy this surface tomorrow and he’s passed up – along with the others in favour of State Of Play, who will be fresher than them all having come back from a break when taking in the Gold Cup last time up. Ran a good race that day but faded badly when under pressure, and looks sure to come on for the run. Was seriously impressive when winning here last year, and despite having a bit to find at the weights is capable of showing that improvement now that the stable is back in form.<br>Advice: 1pt Win – State Of Play
I agree with Reet Hard, Exotic Dancer at around 2/1 is a really good bet. His run in the King George showed he’s capable of running around a track other than Cheltenham. Plus I don’t even think he was at his best , certainly jumping wise in the Gold Cup yet still came second. With doubts about the rest, he’s a cracking bet.
My only worry with Exotic Dancer is that Aintree does tend to suit front runners/handy horses. McCoy’s tactics of hanging around miles off the pace might not suit here.
I’m not backing Our Vic today so he will probably romp home! I find he’s a bit like a delivery man – you’re just not sure if he’s going to turn up.
I think in a five runner race in a probably less quickly run race than a championship race or competitive handicap, will mean exotic dancer won’t be as far off the pace as normal.
Agree with Our Vic. Just thoroughly annoys me! Especially when he romped home in the Charlie Hall.
Exotic Dancer should win this doing handsprings. If Kauto Star had stayed over two miles this season ED would be odds on for this having won the KG and GC… Even if Old Vic is on a going day he’d be lucky to win..
I backed Turpin Green at cheltenham and i think he will run another good race here. I cant think of any very obvious reason why he should beat Exotic Dancer but at the right odds ill consider him.
SHL
Why back him then? If you think there is an obvious winner surely thats who you would back?
ED has pace, stays, jumps well and has the champ on his back….
Quote: from Aragorn on 10:53 am on April 12, 2007[br]Why back him then? If you think there is an obvious winner surely thats who you would back?
ED has pace, stays, jumps well and has the champ on his back…. <br>
Simple really. Almost everyhorse is backable at certain odds. It pays in the long term. Backing horses you fancy at any price hasnt serve me well. I tend to back the ones that I feel are priced wrongly.
Anyhow, Ive seen that there is four pound difference in weight between them now and away from cheltenham Im confident Turpin Green will reverse the placeings. Still not putting my money where my mouth is however since I tend to favour bets above 6-1 as a rule over fences. Again for no other reason other than that my records show it suits me best.<br>
SHL
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.