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I’m gutted for Twasn’t The Plan. Beaten by a head while gaining on the horse in first. There were some ropey jumps that upset the horse’s rhythm, especially at the second last, and it wobbled a bit before getting going to the end. A bit of a more controlled hand on it and I’d have been screaming with delight.
Yesterday I came close in one, placed in another, but overall my picks were horrific. I’m down, in total 2.14pts.
Today, with two jumps meets on, I tried to be a bit more selective.
Sligo – 13:50 – She’s Made It – 10/1 EW – 2pts
A chase debut, with somewhat decent results on lower prize similar ground hurdles. I should really watch videos to see how it comes out of a fence/hurdle, but this might be fun. There’s a clear favourite with Moskovite at evens but this is a gamble.Sligo – 14:55 – Effernock Lad – 9/1 – 1pts – (This is just using up some of my last bet credits.)
A slightly longer trip would suit it, but I’m hoping the weather and slightly heavier ground than indicated play into its favour, especially when the favourite, thecraicisninety is such low odds.Perth – 15:15 – Putting Green – 10/1 EW – 2pts
Has done it on the distance, and I really feel the ground is going to give it its edge here. I’m both delighted and worried about the odds its been given.Sligo – 15:30 – Caerleon Kate – 22/1 EW – 2pts
Beaten at races just sllightly longer than this. Feel the just shorter trip gives it a chance. Worries are the trainer and jockey haven’t been doing much lately. A long odds e/w chance against a field that have been rough. It’s all dependent on weather the yielding ground can see the horse to the distance.Perth – 15:50 – Indian Temple – 11/1 EW – 2pts
Another where I’m not sure on its odds. Maybe because it Ured on it’s previous run here. Has good form over the distance and on the ground. I must be missing something.Overall I’ve put 17pts down today, most of them EW. I must be mad.
WD with Effernock Lad- I was cheering him on as I’d only backed Thecraicisninety for a place and didn’t want to be sickened I hadn’t backed him to win, and I knew you were on this fellow. Worked out nicely!
Aha! Thanks for that. I’m sure that’s what got him over the line!
I know winning will do it for you, but that was probably the most enjoyable race I watched yesterday, at least outside of the first with She’s Made It where they were all there or thereabouts coming over the final fence. I’m a bit peeved at some of the other races, Caerleon Kate seems to have been given a training run in an effort to get them around the course, and Indian Temple’s race was wild. IT and another horse were ahead by a whole fence at one point, they jumped one and the pack were at the previous one. Instead of keeping it steady the whole way around, to set up a fight out between the two at the end, they almost seemed to race each other. It was nuts.
Still, I went to the pub for the first time in ages to watch the racing. A new place to me but it was grand, a bunch of regulars who paid me no attention (as best as I could expect,) warm and a big TV close to the bar. A few pints then the bus home for an early bed and it was a grand aul day. I’m tempted to go there again but the racing today seems like real slim pickings. I have only one bet placed and only one more I have my eye on.
Anyway, I’m down 2pts from yesterday bringing me to down 4.14pts in total.
Perth – 14:00 – Ryalex – 3/1 – 2pts
I think Tayzar might have been my worst pick ever. The horse looked gassed before they even got to the first hurdle.
Anyway, down 4pts today. Down 8.14pts overall.
Downpatrick – 13:35 – Castle Canny – 20/1 EW – 2pts
Third with an even finish in their previous 2m5.5f hurdle, after staying well to pick up a few place, despite no push at the end. 2nd by 1/2l in their race on similar ground/distance.Worcester – 14:00 – Robin Des Mana – 33/1 EW- 2pts
Appalling form in recent races following a dip in form after it changed trainers. Owner, trainer jockey all 1/family. Long shot odds are solely based on the other horses being shite on softer ground. Maybe worth stick something on with the outside shot for the chance of a night out.Downpatrick – 14:40 – Drumconnor Girl – 5/2 – 2pts
Good PTP form, the slightly longer distance for this might work against the other horses, especially with the potential of the ground being heavier than it seems. The distance could be its sweet point with average to poor results at short NHFs The favourite hasn’t responded well to heavier weights and tougher ground, with middling results despite relatively high placings.Downpatrick – 15:15 – Canadian Steel – 9/1 – 2pts
Great form over this distance across good to good ground, depends on how heavily it rains but I imagine it’ll be considered very favourably.Worcester – 15:45 – Roycano – 20/1 EW – 2pts
From its notes it seems like it’s been held in all its longer races, had a burst of pace, then petered out. In a 2m4f race it might be let run its natural race a bit more, allow that pace to take it on, especially with the heavier ground suiting it.Worcester – 16:55 – Jasmin Des Bordes – 5/1 – 2pts
Has done moderately on softer ground at shorter distance. Been a break and wind surgery since its last race. I feel the owners think they can get more out of the horse.18pts staked today
Down 26.14 pts total. I’m getting awful close to not posting it, but that precludes the glorious comeback!
Today, another interest day. My luck will turn. I know it.
Roscommon – 14:05 – Fou Dilligence – 9/4 – 2pts
Roscommon – 14:35 – Glebe Girl – 10/1 EW – 1pts
Roscommon – 15:10 – Kansas Kid – 5/1 – 2pts
Roscommon – 15:40 – Shanwalla – 11/4 – 2pts
Roscommon – 16:15 – Cool Colonnade – 5/1 – 2pts
Roscommon – 16:45 – Bellgrove – 18/1 EW – 2pts
Roscommon – 17:15 – Cherokee Bill – 16/1 EW – 2pts
Good luck today 50p. I’m interested in Glebe Girl- not certain she wants the drop in trip but looking at her sire the soft ground should be a help. She’s a decent EW bet.
Crossbar with Kansas Kid today, and thought that Shanwalla was very unlucky.
Nice each way with Bellgrove as well.
December wee card that today.
Down 34.94
Huntingdon – 14:05 – Gentleman Moore – 4/1 – 2pts
Has proven it can finish as opposed to the favourite in the race.Huntingdon – 15:10 – Summit Like Herbie – 16/1 EW – 2pts
One decent result on near-to-similar ground. Bet on the trainer’s form, that one result and trying it on firmer ground at the right distance. Real long shot, but a feeling.Huntingdon – 16:40 – Transpennine Star – 7/2 – 2pts
Distance could be a factor but always close. Seems a 50/50 shot in the race. Going on trainer and proven ability to win after the break.Galway – 14:35 – La Hachette – 4/1 – 2pts
Galway – 15:10 – Dumhach Thra – 4/1 – 2pts
Galway – 16:15 – Final List – 7/1 EW – 1pts
Jaysus, I thought I updated this for Cheltenham, but I guess I was too focused on the racing. Either way, I broke even, which was nice. I’ve had two good-ish Cheltenhams since I started looking at horses again (albeit only occasionally looking at them.) Pity about the rest of what’s happening in the world.
Anyway, I decided to have a little fun today, after the fun of the football last.
Down 48.94
Tramore – 15:05 – Influential Lady – 16/1 EW – 4pts
Tramore 16:15 – Captain Cobajay – 6/1 – 4pts
Tramore 16:45 – Gold Creek – 100/1 EW – 4pts
I’ll be made to look a fool with this one, but I think the race is middling, and the horse will have found both its form and distance in this, and the PtPs show it can go over fences. The odds just feel too good not to snatch at them.Yesterday was exactly break even. The same amount won as the amount wagered. My 100/1 shot showed why they were 100/1. Influential Lady was a great ride though. The jockey got a lot out of them, and I think the horse could repeat or better their performance on a flatter track, that doesn’t have the steep hill like Tramore.
Down 48.94
Looking at Tipperary today, I have an eye on a few. I think there could be a bit of mayhem with the weather, but there’s a few races that are a bit mixed up, with how the going is and watching the odds might be an idea.
Tipperary – 14:00 – Papal Lodge – 11/2 – 4pts
Tipperary – 14:30 – Ministerforsport – 30/1 EW (4 places) – 4pts
I think this one beats out the mid-priced horses over the ground (there’s a bit of rain expected) and all it takes is a couple of the not heavily backed favoured horses to run poorly. This is playing the odds, which has made a fool of me plenty of times, but all it takes is one or two to come good with a win, and an each way place sets me break even for the day.Tipperary – 15:30 – Call His Bluff – 9/2 – 4pts
I think the form in PtPs shows this is a really strong contender. It might be worth watching, as it’s gone out to 11/2 at points, but I can’t sit here watching them. Considering the bookies only have Rippon Lodge ahead of them then a lot of mid-priced horses it should at least be an interesting three miles.
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