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I`ll be having a small punt on Ballyvesey ,very young but i have had high hopes for this horse since i saw him plugging on at Chepstow last December .
I won`t be able to resist a bet on my old favourite Always Waining in the Sefton as well . A real Aintree lover but not a National horse i fear.
I quite like the look of Meanus Dandy in this. He looked an improved horse in the Badger Ales, & beat some decent horses fairly easily in the end I thought. His ratings rise still leaves him on a fair enough mark in this, Popham rides again & if he takes to the fences (jumped well at Wincanton) I think he will go very well.
Doubt very much he will be 9-1 at the weekend.
I quite like the look of Meanus Dandy in this. He looked an improved horse in the Badger Ales, & beat some decent horses fairly easily in the end I thought. His ratings rise still leaves him on a fair enough mark in this, Popham rides again & if he takes to the fences (jumped well at Wincanton) I think he will go very well.
Doubt very much he will be 9-1 at the weekend.
I presume the jockey is connected to Chris Popham in which case it would be ironic as CP hated Aintree which i suspect was further exaserbated by Roll-A-Joints mishap.
I saw Roll A Joint run at Uttoxeter [was interested to see what his connections looked like having given the horse such a name] and, of course, he was featured in the video about Desert Orchid. His fall at the canal turn was one of the worst I’ve ever seen, poor horse.
They should have gotten the hint that they should stay away from Aintree after the chaos caused by Popham Down
Jeez Dad you and your Owen & Fullagar horses. You may aswell get shares in them.
Notre Pere is certain to have my support on Sunday, but there are a few runners i’m really interested in; Maljimar, Hello Bud and even The Last Derby. I’ve been rather interested in him ever since he won that 3 miler last year, i think it was the United House Gold Cup. There’s no reason why he should be without a chance, especially with that Cork National 3rd under his belt.
I don’t understand why Irish Raptor is as short as 12/1. Don’t get me wrong, i’m not looking for value as i simply do not believe he has it in him, but the horse has failed to complete the course on his last two runs over the big fences, in his last 2 runs which are just about the same distance as the Becher he has tired rapidly and finished miles behind them. On top of this he has only ever finished 6th in his two Becher completions. If he wins i’ll walk to Twisters and eat the horse’s turd.
I’ve backed Dashing George in this at 33s. I put the bet on during Tuesday daytime. But to my horror I see he is also entered in the Sefton with Jamie Moore jocked up.
This horse came 2nd in the Munster National and 4th in the Kerry National so surely 3miles + would be much more suitable than the 2m 5f of the Sefton.
He had a pipe opener over hurdles at Towcester last month and should now be ready to run for his life.
Comments from the form book on his Kerry National 4th described his jumping as tremendous!
He’s never fallen and his former trainer said he excels on soft going.
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Royal Rosa is interesting (should he line up) at 20/1, but I’m happy to side with Fabalu (12/1). He disappointed Donald McCain when running poorly at Cheltenham and had probably had enough when winning at Chepstow in April. He still has plenty of potential and the yard have no problem readying horses after a break.
Fabalu looks very good for this one. He’s got great form over this kind of distance and *bing* has never fallen. And with the current ground standing at soft; his chances will improve. He’s got great form over soft/heavy going and has a jockey booked, so he’s definitely up it seems. Wow this one is seriously competitive.
I’ve done:
Newman Des Plages £3 ew @ 20/1
Meanus Dandy £6 ew @ 9/1
Gullible Gordon £6ew @ 11/1They should have gotten the hint that they should stay away from Aintree after the chaos caused by Popham Down
Jeez Dad you and your Owen & Fullagar horses. You may aswell get shares in them.
Notre Pere is certain to have my support on Sunday, but there are a few runners i’m really interested in; Maljimar, Hello Bud and even The Last Derby. I’ve been rather interested in him ever since he won that 3 miler last year, i think it was the United House Gold Cup. There’s no reason why he should be without a chance, especially with that Cork National 3rd under his belt.
I don’t understand why Irish Raptor is as short as 12/1. Don’t get me wrong, i’m not looking for value as i simply do not believe he has it in him, but the horse has failed to complete the course on his last two runs over the big fences, in his last 2 runs which are just about the same distance as the Becher he has tired rapidly and finished miles behind them. On top of this he has only ever finished 6th in his two Becher completions. If he wins i’ll walk to Twisters and eat the horse’s turd.
Peter your making me out to be some sort of stalker
It was coincidence that i became a fan of Ballycassidy and Iron Man but i admit i look out for their colours now as they seem to buy good sorts.
Plus at risk of going on again compensation in the National one day would be good .So what are your final picks?
Peter’s Becher Breakdown
Every year i make a spreadsheet of the Becher runners and look into the things that make a Becher winner; their top winning distance, if they have distance form, if they have ground form and if they have any Aintree experience.
2 years ago it landed me a winner in Black Apalachi and last year it got me runner up in Keenans Future. Hopefully i’ll land a place again this year. Na screw it i want the winner!
I’ve taken down who i like most and who i like least and i’ll give you a rundown… anyone i miss out i’ve missed out because either i don’t know enough about them or they just aren’t that attractive. But mostly the former.
Right off the bat i’ll be looking into
Notre Pere
as a major threat in this. He has everything going for him with great distance form and obviously loves the mud. The only thing he hasn’t got going for him is his lack of Aintree experience, but that’s no real worry. He’ll be fine with that weight i imagine. Many top weights have won this in the past and Notre Pere is a very good horse and will cope.
Maljimar
has yet to win over 2, 5 but he has good form over this kind of distance and we know he’ll take to the fences and acts on anything. Real good contender.
One Cool Cookie
is a great darkhorse. 25/1 is amazing value. His ideal distance is 3, 2 and acts on any going. He’s been entered in this race a couple of times, but is finally running. I’d watch out for this one to be in the places.
Minster Shadow
again has good distance form, but may not enjoy the ground. Only 1 lb out of the handicap so that shouldn’t be a problem. Seems lively with a good second last time out. 33/1 is great value.
Royal Rosa
has everything needed to be a winner. Although he’s only ever won at 2, 7 max; he can clearly stay, has Aintree experience (3rd in this last year) and enjoys the mud. Literally ticks every box, but he’s 3 lbs out of the handicap, but i don’t see why that should halt his chances.
And you know what, Dad?
Ballyvesey
actually looks good for this one. Has brilliant form over this kind of distance and the ground won’t bother him… but he’s 5 lb out of the handicap, which could alter his chances. Has good form leading to this, so could spring a surprise.
My first 4 home…
1.
Notre Pere
2. Maljimar
3. Royal Rosa
4. One Cool Cookie(the order of 2-4 liable to change)
Who to avoid…
Whatuthink, Irish Raptor, I’moncloudnine, Newman Des Plages, Pak Jack (should have gone to the Sefton) and Au Courant
I don’t really know enough some of the others to make a good judgment, though Meanus Dandy, Midnight Gold and Hello Bud won’t like the soft ground at all and i reckon that will show.
Don’t know enough about Gullible Gordon and Mergo wants further.
If Notre Pere takes to the place and finds a rhythm I agree he could carry topweight to victory here. But there is an element of if. It doesn’t look the best renewal I can recall.
Can
One Cool Cookie
be the 4th winner in a row to be sired by Old Vic after Mr Pointment(2007), Black Apalachi(2008) and Vic Venturi(2009)?
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Interesting Jim Dreaper has chosen to send Notre Pere for this with a big weight rather than carrying a featherweight in next weeks Hennessy.
He’d make mincemeat of this lot at his best and gave a hint he might be conming back to forn when splitting Gelencove Marina and Rare Bob.
Not a race to get carried away in but worth an ew interest.
Imoncloudnine is also interesting at the weights and Dougie Costello riding.
Not sure to have a bet but won’t be much is I do.
If Notre Pere takes to the place and finds a rhythm I agree he could carry topweight to victory here. But there is an element of if. It doesn’t look the best renewal I can recall.
I’m certain he’ll handle the weights as it shows in his form that he’s been carrying such weights in his last start and previous season. I’m however more fond of Merigo, an out of the ordinary selection but I have a feeling about him.
Interesting Jim Dreaper has chosen to send Notre Pere for this with a
big weight
rather than carrying a featherweight in next weeks Hennessy.
Top weight allocation that’s for sure, but nothing the horse can’t handle I believe.
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