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Entries out, and Hills quick off the mark in pricing up……
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2019-12-07/743418
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/becher-handicap-chase/winner
Unlike The Grand National, where the first thing I look for is a horse who hasn’t been over the fences, in The Becher, the first thing I look for is one who’s been over them before.
In that respect, last year’s winner of this, Walk In The Mill, and 2017 National Hero, One For Arthur, both jump off the page. I was more than happy with Arthur’s comeback run, and he was a significant eye catcher in last year’s National, off the back of a less than ideal prep. Ticks every box, but would he want this, with a view to ruining his mark for April? Walk In The Mill had a slightly less impressive comeback, but generally speaking, I think he’s still on a cracking mark, and he looks proper shortlist material.
One I really like though is the Pipe trained Vieux Lion Rouge. Runner up last year, and he’s a previous winner. Another plus is his overall record round here, which is highly impressive. Throw in the fact that this is his likely main target, and also the fact he came back and won in good style at Chepstow, a win he wasn’t hammered for, and you have a very realistic candidate. 14’s is fair, very fair, but possibly one to watch the market with. Unless a big market move, I’d be happy to sit tight.
Regal Encore is a horse I always give a good word to, and he knows his way around here as well. Perennially overpriced, but he’ll never be one for an Antepost. Big player if declared.
A real dark one with experience could be Milansbar. Ran a stormer in the 2018 National, and although he’ll come here off the back of a disappointing campaign, he’s slipping down the weights, and he just screams to me as one who’ll bounce back here. I’m very very tempted by 50’s.
One problem in taking an early view on this race is the proximity of The Grand Sefton, on the same card.
The following all fit my profile for The Becher, but entries for The Grand Sefton, pretty much stop me from even looking at them Antepost……
As De Mee
Call It Magic
Captain Redbeard
Federici
Pleasant Company
SametegalThey’re by no means the only ones with entries in both races, in fact there’s loads, but those look the most interesting.
It’s obviously not a great idea to set your stall out for only those with experience, and this quintet, unfortunately (from an Antepost stance), make life extremely difficult.
Sharp Response – Ahead of the handicapper, and being trained for this.
Impulsive Star – I’ve been guilty in the past of over playing the Waley-Cohen angle, but it still makes sense to consider his mounts, and this Classic Chase Winner, who was also placed in a strong renewal of The National Hunt Chase, looks seriously overpriced at 20’s.
Give Me A Copper – Badger Beer Winner, who’s surely National bound, and the only question mark is over whether they’ll blow his mark here. I doubt that’ll be an issue for the trainer, who won it with Neptune Collonges after a very honest campaign.
Abolitionist – Low key comeback, but won at the meeting last year, and having been bought with The National in mind, for a shrewd handler, you can be assured he’ll be going for this all guns blazing.
Commodore – Folded quite tamely today, but he’ll bounce back, and looks assured to be a staple in these big chases over the coming years.
Mulcahys Hill – Back with a bang at Cheltenham last time, and although he looks perfect for Chepstow, not one to quickly write off here.
Of the rest, well the Hemmings pair of Vintage Clouds and Lake View Lad don’t need much of a write up. Both perfect for this, both will be National bound, and both more than good enough to scoop this.
Borice is a seriously exciting horse, but he has plenty of other options, and I’d find General Principle just as interesting from that yard. He’ll have other options too, and I’ll play a waiting game with the other Irish ones too.
I’ll do everything I can not to play this early, but should I crack, then these are the ones who not only appeal, but can also be considered as heading here…..
Abolitionist 33’s
Impulsive Star 20’s
Milansbar 50’s
Vieux Lion Rouge 14’sLoads of old favourites, but one that leapt out at me on first viewing was Singlefarmpayment. Ran a great race in the National I thought and while he’s quirky enough; this course can bring out the best of his ilk and I’m still convinced that long run in will suit. I’d be very tempted to go in, but targets are nearly impossible to pin down at this stage.
Very nice trial by Sharp Response today.
I hovered over the 40’s, but gave it a miss in the end. Smith’s horses usually improve for a run, and he’s got two under his belt now. 25’s still seems fair, but I’ll hold off.
Give Me A Copper unlikely for this, just in case anyone was considering him.
Captain Redbeard also reportedly out for season.
I’d expect this to really cut up tomorrow, loads of them who look unlikely.
Haven’t a bean on this yet, Abolitionist still interests me at 33’s, while I think that Regal Flow could have one last big run in him at 66’s, but he could also go London National next week.
A few of these though, look just too big at the moment, ahead of getting slashed at tomorrow’s five day decs…..
Impulsive Star 16’s
Sharp Response 25’s
Vieux Lion Rouge 16’s
Walk In The Mill 16’sI’d like to bet a pair of them, but just can’t decide, so this looking increasingly like a race worth holding off with, maybe even till final decs, though the 16’s for former winners Vieux Lion Rouge and Walk In The Mill, looks particularly big.
Two Bullets for me
KIMBERLITE CANDY 25/1 EW
IMPULSIVE STAR 25/1 EWWould love a bit of rain for them both.
Good luck all
I quite fancy BALLYOPTIC for this! The Charlie Hall was a good performance and showed when he’s up for it he stays for days. I think the slog in that race maybe didn’t put him right for the Betfair Chase. Obviously he was never going to win that and im glad he didn’t exert himself.
You cant ignore that form before the betfair and he will be fresher for this. TOP VILE BEN & ELEGANT ESCAPE have gone on to run strong races now so ill be backing BALLYOPTIC at 11/1.
If i was looking at any others id probably say MULCAHYS HILL he really impressed me flying up the hill strongly to beat WHOLESTONE by a neck looked like a nag that wants further
With As De Mee not going Grand Sefton, I’ll go with him. Fits the profile for me here, and happy with 16’s.
Still can’t split Walk The Mill or Vieux Lion Rouge, but I’ll probably add st least one on the day.
I’m giving Regal Flow a good look too at 66’s, but his price should more or less hold, and there’ll be more places available at weekend, so might as well wait.
As De Mee 16’s EW 5 Places
Three shots for me at this
WALK IN THE MILL 12/1 Should have won me a few quid in this last year and no reason he shouldn’t run well again
WANDRIN STAR 25/1 could be an improver over these fences and even though he looked a lucky winner last time out has only gone up four pound.
FEDERICI 40/1 Fourth and fifth in this the last two years and is now a good ten pound lower. Will run his race for sure.
Good Luck Guys
I bet Walk In The Mill for this last week. I’m happy to have got 16-1 and I’m confident of a big run.
I waited with Abolitionist and missed the 33-1. He is best priced 25-1 now, but I have taken 20-1 ew with 5 places.
I will bet Federici + Le Breuil in this, but they will be on the day bets. I don’t want to risk an early bet, as Federici has the Sefton as an option, while the price of Le Breuil looks too good to be true
Buckers, i imagine it’s due to the form of the yard.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Vintage Clouds 9/1
Perfect trip and ground looks good for him also. Convinced there’s a good one in this beast and although he fell at the first in the Nash, i think he’s suited to these fences.
It’s an open renewal that’s for sure. Ballyoptic looks a typical NTD runner in this and would have to be taken seriously, but I have never been convinced by his jumping. I’m going to bypass him this time.
Like many others I’m struggling to separate Vieux Lion Rouge and Walk In The Mill. Neither look overly penalised for their better efforts and both have shown an aptitude for the fences. If forced to choose I’d probably opt for the latter as he looks more consistent.
Definitly Red looks an interesting runner. Has been dropped a few pounds for some slightly below par runs lately, but I’m convinced he’s still a class act who doesn’t look too harshly treated.
One at a slightly bigger price I’m having a look at is Mysteree. Stamina to burn who won over shorter than ideal last time out with One For Arthur behind him. He’d likely be my each way angle.
I don’t want to back all four, so one will need dropping by Saturday.
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