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13 to post, after the 48hrs decs.
Mr Vango
Bioluminescence
Monbeg Genius
Twig
Bill Baxter
Roi Mage
White Rhino
Galia des Liteaux
Mahons Glory
Excello
Westerninthepark
Val Dancer
GaboriotBit of a disappointing turnout, but it aligns with recent renewals and other similar handicaps.
I have missed the price completely on White Rhino, but I might just have a small go so I don’t feel too bad if he goes on and wins it. I’m in two minds about gong to Aintree on Saturday, but if I do go I’ll likely have a small token bet on Twig on course.
Main bet is Galia Des Liteaux and I’m relieved they opted for this over Sandown.
A few fancies are not running. Glad i didnt have an antepost.
GDL will get his ground, as well, Peter, although he hasnt won for 2 years. Plenty of the wet stuff forecast, for that part of the UK over the next 36 hours.Early punt on
Val Dancer 18/1 win only (Boosted)
Last of 9 for season’s pipe opener, but the likely soft going and trip shouldnt be an issue. It’ll be a gruelling race on Saturday, i reck.Added Roi Mage as planned, weather forecast shouldn’t be an issue for him. Covered it with Skybet as they’re more likely to hold the four places, should there be a few withdrawals
I’ll add Val Dancer as backup to that pair over the weekend. Big fan of Val Dancer, and I’m sure he wins a big one this year, just didn’t expect it to be this. Was hoping he’d go for a repeat at Chepstow
If Bill Baxter wins, I’ll take it on the chin, just completely missed the price
Roi Mage 40’s EW 4Pls
Val Dancer 17.5’s
White Rhino 25’sGaboriot the percentage call but since 1997 only Earth Summit has won wearing blinkers, which is not ideal. That said only 43 have run in them in that time with a further 3 runners up but Coko Beach was the first since 2001.
I might have a cheeky bit on Twig @ 33’s for s&g’s
Bioluminescence at 8/1 really should be my only bet, but I keep going back to the Skelton form, so I’ve covered Galia De Liteaux 6/1
I should have waited until I’d looked at them all properly. Doing so has caused a change of mind as I think much too much emphasis has been put on jumping the fences than staying the trip. So here’s the final assessment:
Although on form and fence experience this looks a relatively open race, the key attribute needed is stamina. Only 5 have won at this trip or farther.
Mr Vango
Twig
Roi Mage
Val Dancer
Gaboriot
Mr Vango has 12 stones, and although I ike him a lot, only one horse has carried more than 10.13 to victory – Ashtown Lad 11st 5lbs 2022 – in the last 14 runnings.
Twig won first time out this season, but tends to run well on seasonal debuts and then fade.
Roi Mage will try as hard as he always does but age will be a ever more dangerous enemy as his 14th birthday looms.
I think Gaboriot has an excellent chance, but for overall value it has to be Val Dancer, the Welsh Grand National winner. Still just 8, Val Dancer often seems value as the bookies don’t rate his trainer Mel Rowley, despite her getting 6 wins from him. All wins came between November and February, so he appears very much a winter horse. Mel had a winner at Wincanton on Thursday, her yard in better form now than when Val Dancer finished last of 9 on his seasonal debut, looking in need of the race.
With just 10.6 to carry today, he looks excellent EW value at 12/1 to 4 places. I’ll also have a win only saver on Gaboriot at 13/2, and a £1 reversed forecast.
Good luck
Joe
Bill Baxter for me. Hope to see his has the same level of form as in Punchestown.
Bill Baxter 7/1
I see Denise has put Mr Vango as her Bet Boost. Not surprising I guess.
He becomes the first Ocovango to run in a handicap off a mark of 150+
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