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Balmoral 2020

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  • #1503036
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17761

    A seriously strong entry here…..

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2020-10-17/766314

    Afaak – Former Hunt Cup winner, who I give a chance to on Saturday in The Cambridgeshire. Been running well this year, and see no reason why he can’t figure here.

    Bless Him – Went in the notebook with what looked like some bad luck in The Golden Mile. Still high enough in the weights for his course and distance win last season, but that Goodwood run suggested that might not be too prohibitive, and he’s seriously considered here. Possibly one for after Final Decs, as he’s fairly ground dependent, but a very interesting contender.

    Brunch – Relatively low profile, but he’s had a seriously good year, and no obvious signs of that progress coming to a halt. Smashing run last week off the back of his York win.

    Cardsharp – Getting frustrating now, but his run in The International, here in July, offers a glimmer of hope.

    Escobar – Tidy winner of this last year, and despite a fairly average season, he has to be taken seriously here, and no ground concerns.

    Euchen Glen – Hasn’t ran a bad race this year, after a long spell on the sidelines, culminating in a very impressive win in The Old Borough Cup, and hardly disgraced behind Addeybb last week. Bound to be underrated in the market, and though he’s a surprise entry over this trip, trainer must know something, and he at least knows he has a very good, and versatile, horse in his hands.

    King Ottokar – Has the option of The Challenge Cup first of all.
    I thought he was really unlucky at Doncaster a fortnight ago, in process of running a big race when denied room at the crucial time. He mixed it with decent company last year, and he’s still sitting on a very nice looking mark. That entry entry for The Challenge Cup is a concern, but he looks primed for a big run somewhere, and I’d make him a leading contender.

    Ropey Guest – Model of consistency this year, and trainer has been noticeably careful with him. Has ran well in decent races over the last year, goes well here, and he’s likely to be an attractive price. Very interesting.

    Tempus – Looks primed for a big run in The Cambridgeshire. If that goes his way, Handicaps may well be out of the equation, but say setback, and this might just be the race to bounce back.

    Wise Counsel – Didn’t run too badly in Ayr Gold Cup, and though this trip is new territory, he’s shaped in the past as if he could handle it.

    No market up, but looks one to hold fire with just now.

    #1503087
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17761

    Market up……

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/balmoral-handicap/winner

    Few standout prices…..

    Afaak 25’s (Saturday permitting)
    Bless Him 20’s
    Euchen Glen 33’s
    King Ottokar 25’s
    Ropey Guest 50’s

    The price on King Ottokar looks very fair, but there’s that entry for The Challenge Cup to consider.

    #1503522
    Silver Spoon
    Participant
    • Total Posts 63

    20-1 for Bless Him is big. I’ve taken that already, he’s got a race like this in him.

    #1503670
    Kris
    Participant
    • Total Posts 623

    Greenside and Bless Him for me at this stage, both 20-1, maybe worth small ap win only bets just now.

    #1503683
    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5988

    KING OTTAKAR 25/1 my bet Bob then hope rain and cats and dogs

    #1504641
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17761

    Taken the 25’s now for King Ottokar, with Ascot being called off.

    This should really be a race for just the one, but I will probably stick with Ropey Guest as well on the day, and the terms are fair right now.

    King Ottokar 25’s
    Ropey Guest 50’s EW 5 Places

    #1505856
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 17761

    Pleased that both of mine stand their ground, but no counting my chickens yet.

    If they continue to come down much more in price, I’ll consider laying off for a free race, or possibly betting one of the others in original shortlist, Tempus or Escobar. At current prices, likely to be Escobar, but I’ll wait till Final Decs.

    #1506186
    Mike987654
    Participant
    • Total Posts 331

    I really like the fav Raaeq 5/1.

    #1506189
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2169

    Prince Eili 25s EW
    Raising Sand also EW @ 12/1

    #1506250
    robnorth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4645

    This is a race I always think of being a bit of an end of season afterthought for trainers having one last go before the turf season wraps up.

    Keats is top rated on my figures, but was well beaten when running in a big field handicap. Possibly one for smaller fields in Pattern races.

    RAAEQ doesn’t show up particularly well on my figures, but is lightly raced, progressive and potentially a good deal better than his current mark. More a suggestion of targeting the race than many engaged here.

    Joint top rated is TEMPUS and he looks rock solid at this level. Raced a bit free in the Cambridgeshire but was still in there and pitching for the places and back at the scene of his C/D win in early September. Another lightly raced and progressive, this will be only his fourth race this year so probably a bit more in the tank.

    That’s too from the front of the market which is unimaginative I know, but there are a lot of these with connections presumably hoping rather than feeling great confidence.

    #1506257
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1307

    Raaeq looks the group horse in a handicap to me and has soft ground course form and should be ok on Breeding with a stiff 8f

    #1506260
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2173

    River nymph 14/1 e/w

    Progressive sort took a big step forward over 7f on soft ground last time. Has a nice centralish draw and looks sure to enjoy the extra furlong having finished strongly the last twice.

    #1506270
    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2169

    Added few more each way pennies on Prince Eiji at 33s and a bit more on the machine

    #1506272
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2208

    Tempus ew 5 places. First time this season he’s got his soft ground so could run big.

    #1506297
    All Jeff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 251

    Tempus at 8-1 looks a big price to me, and I’ve went win only.

    It’s a typically string field for this, so I’ve added one more. Symbolise with 6 places looks worth a try, and I’ve taken the 50-1. If Skybet don’t go as high as 66-1, I’ll take 5 places elsewhere

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