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LOL
GaG,
Compared to Cheltenham the course of Leopardstown is fairly level with a slight uphill finish.
2 1/2 miles on such a track is definitely an intermediate trip, not a staying trip.2m5f around Cheltenham would be somewhere between the two. Possibly a staying trip if the ground was testing.
I certainly wouldn’t want Ballyburn to race over a pure staying trip of the Albert Bartlett
Value Is Everything“But every other jockey will be thinking… how do I (we) get this odds-on favourite beaten? If I were the jockey on the front runner I’d then slam the breaks on. ”
Which other jockeys on which other horses Ginger? What horse has the tactical speed to secure the lead then monkey about with the tempo? Gidleigh Park? Captain Teague? If either of that pair of boats tried to control or contain Ballyburn he could drop kick them out of the way at his leisure and continue serenely on making his own running.
As you say- LOL.“I certainly wouldn’t want Ballyburn to race over a pure staying trip of the Albert Bartlett”
Don’t think anyone has suggested that.“I certainly wouldn’t want Ballyburn to race over a pure staying trip of the Albert Bartlett”
Don’t think anyone has suggested that.”
I know – where did that come from?
Ballyburn and Tullyhill are Mullins’s two best novices. Why would he run both of them in the same race?
You want Ballyburn to go to the front early in the Bingham? LOL
That would be another thing his rivals would love. An even better chance of getting Ballyburn beat.
Getting a horse that has never gone to the front from the start before (ie the jockey has previously wanted to at least try to settle the horse first)… A horse that has previously taken a keen hold at 2 miles – let alone 2 1/2… And yet you want the jockey to go to the front; trying to go slower than he ever has in a race – with NO cover… Over a far longer trip than when settling the best he ever has settled last time… And on a much stiffer undulating course.Surely a horse that has produced form good enough to be odds-on should not be asked to do anything so different than it has already done before? Let alone be out in front early on a horse who took a keen hold at a much shorter trip?
…It gets worse.
Value Is EverythingSir Gerhard won from the front at Leopardstown over 2 miles and took his time in the Ballymore. Expecting the same from Ballyburn if he comes here.
Still in denial that pulling is no problem at all. You talk as if Ballyburn has been dropped out in his races. Other than his point, when he was hampered, he has just tracked the pace. He would have no issue whatsoever in making the pace in the Ballymore. Townend has the option to do what he wants. That’s the point you seem be ignoring. He doesn’t have any options in a Supreme.
As for the longer trip that’s already been explained. He has already proven beyond doubt that he stays beyond the intermediate trip. You seem to want to pretend that second run didn’t happen.
There would be far less chance of him getting beat in an Albert Bartlett than the Supreme.
For anyone who hasn’t seen it this was his point win over three miles, having been hampered:-
https://secure.tattersalls.com/4DCGI/Entry/Images?EntryID=232155
Again he finishes the race as if he could go round again, similarly to the one race over the intermediate trip. I know we don’t see the start, but there isn’t an inkling that he is out of control.
We are going around in circles.
I am just glad you’re not advising Townend how to ride, Stilvi.We’ll need to agree to disagree.
Value Is EverythingMarkTT quote:
“I don’t see the point of running Ballyburn in the Supreme when they can win that race without him and he’s being trained as a potential Gold Cup horse
He’s 6 – Best Mate, Kicking King, War Of Attrition and Sizing John were all 5 when they placed in the SupremeGet on with his staying career”
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To which I replied in the very next post:Ballyburn has pulled hard and taken a strong hold at 2 miles, Mark.
They have to take notice of what the horse does on the track.
Once Ballyburn shows he settles then he can be upped to staying trips.————————————–
MarkTT was saying “get on with his staying career”
Sorry, I thought it was obvious why I said “Once Ballyburn shows he settles then he can be upped to staying trips”.I then said “I certainly wouldn’t want Ballyburn to race over a pure staying trip of the Albert Bartlett”
I realise Mark was not suggesting Ballyburn race in the Albert Bartlett – over a pure staying trip – immediately. Am just saying that only when the horse shows he can settle well over lesser trips can he move on to purely a “staying career”.
Value Is EverythingThis is, not unsurprisingly, excruciating:-
There is a general feeling/acceptance that Mullins won’t answer anything, but it you lack conviction and suitable questions then you give him an open goal to do exactly that. Sadly, Chapman probably thinks he has done a great job by simply asking him.
When he mentioned pulling in relation to Ballyburn the obvious question to ask would have been if that was an issue why step him up to the intermediate trip? He could so easily have run him over the wrong trip for the whole season, or at least until he didn’t get away with it, again.
My recollection of the aftermath of that Christmas run was that both trainer and jock were full of praise with no negatives. At that stage it looked all systems go for the Ballymore, and the market prices relected that. If that praise wasn’t true then did Mullins expect the horse to win by 50 lengths, rather than 25? If it was true why is he now backtracking on what he said at the time given that his idea of pulling (which I see as natural exuberance and hope won’t be lost because it is a trait of the horse) looks to have had no impact on performance? The only impact on performance was the last run where for the first time he was unable to run through the line. Short of walking away (something you wouldn’t expect a gent to do), he couldn’t have sidestepped those questions.
Ballyburn was always going to run at the DRF and 2m6f was very unlikely, so the 2 miler made sense; even more so when you consider Mullins wanting to win the lot ( don’t be taken in by the mock humility and surprise at being unaware he’d bagged all those Grade 1s ) just as he will at Cheltenham
He had nothing to beat Slade Steel over 2 then and I think that’s another reason why I think Ballyburn will race here and not the Supreme
Will he want to beat both JP and Cheveley Park, two very powerful benefactors, in the same race ?!Makes no logical sense to me
Leaving aside that he should never have gone two miles initially, my biggest worry about the DRF is that he didn’t finish off as strongly, and has likely had a harder race than ideal. If you try and force a horse to do something that isn’t a natural fit that is what likely will happen. The longer race (which the markets suggested he was never going to run in so why enter?) was also a Grade 1, and would have given him a much easier preparation. He would barely have had to be shaken up to beat that opposition. Had he won that there would have been no question as where he would be heading next. Mullins must have suspected that other than Ballyburn, he had a bunch of handicappers in the two mile race. He clearly gambled on getting away with the two miles in a poor race so he could bag two Grade 1’s. That would have been his first thought, nothing to do with what may have suited the horse best. Those who gambled the horse for the Supreme prior to the DRF had a good idea that was going to happen.
The 2m6f race is more of a bartlett trial
2m grade 1 winners have an excellent recent record in the ballymore
Mullins has Il Atlantique (for Townend to ride) and Mystical Power that could come here and both would probably start shorter than Tullyhill in the Supreme. Latter is sure to drift significantly if Ballyburn is confirmed for there.
Mystical Power coming here also means JP splits his two best novices. One in the Supreme and one in the Bingham.
Still could change but Ballyburn has been shortening in the last couple of days for the Supreme and lengthening for this.
Now 3 Supreme with punters queuing up at 3.25.
Now 3.85 Bingham with punters queuing at 4.2Value Is EverythingThe exchange market is very strange. Unless you knew something you wouldn’t put a bean on Ballyburn to even run in the Supreme.
Good to see you exploring another avenue, or is it a cul-de-sac?
Ile Atlantique isn’t in the same league as Ballyburn. He has already been exposed at the intermediate trip. You actually think he is a stronger stayer than Ballyburn? I can only assume that the Sean Graham quote declaring the horse for this race was just a stunt to try and push Ballyburn into the Supreme. His bumper and hurdle isn’t good enough, and he’s a weak stayer. Townend would have to have a screw loose to ride him in preference to Ballyburn.
If you believe what Mullins has said about Mystical Power then the two JP horses won’t be split. He has been much more forthcoming (by his standards) about that horse than Ballyburn.
I am not saying that Townend would choose Il Atlantique over Ballyburn, Stilvi.
I am saying if Ballyburn goes for the Supreme Townend still has a good ride in the Bingham on Il Atlantique.I wouldn’t put a bean on any of the runners in the novice hurdles – not even those trained by others – until Mullins decides where his go. Because bookies have needed to shorten all the horses in the markets just in case Ballyburn does not run in that race.
If there was an injury to any of the four Mullins Supreme and Bingham novices it might change where his other three go too.
Nice to see your bookmaker conspiracy theories are still at work.
Value Is EverythingI believe Sean Graham is still a firm of bookmakers and the owner Tony Bloom is renowned for liking a big punt. It seemed strange to me that he should suddenly decide that a horse beaten by a relatively unconsidered three miler plodder still had a preference for the longer trip. People can join the dots however they want, but it wouldn’t be inconceivable that he has had a little tickle on Ballyburn for the Supreme, and wanted to influence that market.
Apologies if I have missed it, but assuming that Tullyhill, Mystical Power, and Firefox go Supreme, do you think Ballyburn wins the Ballymore? If not, who does? Connections of Slade Steel have already implied they will also avoid him so likely he won’t be there either. Gidleigh Park will likely go Albert Bartlett, and Ile Atlantique isn’t good enough to win either race. It’s hard to see any opposition, and anything more than a very small field. Mullins has said Predators Gold will run, but he isn’t in the same league.
Stilvi,
Yes, I think you have missed some of what I’ve previously written, answering your question. So won’t go into it again here. Please take a look at what I said midway down page 6 AND on page 7 of the Supreme thread. You’ll be surprised that It agrees with your points about the “Ballymore” if cutting up.Regards Ile Atlantique: I very much doubt he’ll have enough pace for the Supreme and Mullins has far better horses for that race. His best chance is in the Bingham where I expect him to race with or without Ballyburn. He Was a very close second in the Naas Grade 1 to the horse currently favourite for the Albert Bartlett. So if Ballyburn does not run in the Bingham then Ile Atlantique could possibly win the Bingham as I’d expect him to start second fav in those circumstances… I’d expect the horse Ballyburn beat 7 lengths… Slade Steel imo has the best Bingham chance if Ballyburn goes Supreme.
If Ballyburn does go for the Bingham, expect Ile Antlantique to set a good pace so Ballyburn can settle.
Value Is Everything
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